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Surprisingly, a very good article from Salon on how Trump could steamroll Hillary as a result of all her attacks backfiring:
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/29/we_...has_an_easier_path_to_victory_than_you_think/
Losing the Culture Wars
Many Trump supporters may well be racist, xenophobic or misogynistic—but if the Democrats think that it will be a winning strategy to sling these kinds of labels at the Donald, then they are going to be in for a nasty surprise in November.
For one thing, Trump’s parochialism resonates with many more Americans than the mainstream media likes to believe or acknowledge (although their obsessive coverage of the Donald is an implicit recognition of this reality). This is true across the board: male and female, young and old, rich and poor, educated and uneducated, highly-intelligent or not, Democrat or Republican (this is particularly true for his anti-Muslim proposals). And his nationalistic economic and foreign policy message resonates even more broadly: a majority of Americans support his “America-first” approach. So if the Clinton camp attempts to disparage people who hold these kinds of views as ignorant and bigoted, they are going to be alienating far more voters than they can likely afford.
Exacerbating this trend is something I call “negative intersectionality”: progressives have done a great job framing racial inequality, feminism and LGBTQ rights as part of the same basic struggle. However, this association works both ways. Accusations of misogyny, for instance, are often heard in the context of a fundamentally anti-white, anti-Christian culture war—a zero-sum campaign waged against ordinary hard-working Americans by condescending and politically correct liberal elites. As a result, many conservative white women who may be disturbed by Trump’s remarks would simultaneously feel antipathy toward liberals when they encounter a pro-Clinton ad that highlights those comments. Some may even come to view Trump more sympathetically if Democrats attempt to paint him as anti-woman or anti-minority.
If Clinton thinks she can criticize Trump as a sexist without stirring up this broader resentment against liberals, she is in for a rude awakening. If she thinks there’s an alternative path to victory by largely writing off the white vote and leaning more heavily on the support of minorities, she’s probably wrong about that too: Clinton would simultaneously need massive turnout and near-unanimous support from minority groups to compensate for decreased support among white Americans. However, turnout has been low among Democrats in the primary. Moreover, Trump seems to be performing surprisingly well among minorities:
Mitt Romney only garnered 6 percent of the black vote in 2012. However, this election is shaping up to be more competitive: nearly one-tenth of African-Americans view the Donald positively, with another 15 percent undecided. If even half of the latter group ultimately sides with Trump, or simply stays home on Election Day, Clinton loses. For her to win, African-American participation needs to at least match 2012 turnout, and Clinton must win roughly 90 percent of the black vote. Right now, it’s looking like she might fail on both counts.
Perhaps more shocking: despite his anti-immigrant rhetoric, nearly one-quarter of Hispanics support Trump, with another 15 percent undecided—putting him on pace to possibly exceed Romney’s 2012 share (27 percent).
One reason to suspect these dynamics might hold: positive intersectionality. Trump’s ambivalence on gay marriage, his opposition to the so-called “Bathroom Bills” in North Carolina and elsewhere, his consistent praise for Planned Parenthood, his commitment to loosening the Republican platform on abortion, and his openness to legalizing marijuana (which would have a huge and positive impact on people of color)—these will counteract depictions of him as a xenophobe or bigot among those who view these struggles as interconnected. In fact, Trump’s unorthodox positions, when paired with the public’s record distrust of mainstream media, may lead many to believe he is being unfairly maligned in the press.
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/29/we_...has_an_easier_path_to_victory_than_you_think/
Losing the Culture Wars
Many Trump supporters may well be racist, xenophobic or misogynistic—but if the Democrats think that it will be a winning strategy to sling these kinds of labels at the Donald, then they are going to be in for a nasty surprise in November.
For one thing, Trump’s parochialism resonates with many more Americans than the mainstream media likes to believe or acknowledge (although their obsessive coverage of the Donald is an implicit recognition of this reality). This is true across the board: male and female, young and old, rich and poor, educated and uneducated, highly-intelligent or not, Democrat or Republican (this is particularly true for his anti-Muslim proposals). And his nationalistic economic and foreign policy message resonates even more broadly: a majority of Americans support his “America-first” approach. So if the Clinton camp attempts to disparage people who hold these kinds of views as ignorant and bigoted, they are going to be alienating far more voters than they can likely afford.
Exacerbating this trend is something I call “negative intersectionality”: progressives have done a great job framing racial inequality, feminism and LGBTQ rights as part of the same basic struggle. However, this association works both ways. Accusations of misogyny, for instance, are often heard in the context of a fundamentally anti-white, anti-Christian culture war—a zero-sum campaign waged against ordinary hard-working Americans by condescending and politically correct liberal elites. As a result, many conservative white women who may be disturbed by Trump’s remarks would simultaneously feel antipathy toward liberals when they encounter a pro-Clinton ad that highlights those comments. Some may even come to view Trump more sympathetically if Democrats attempt to paint him as anti-woman or anti-minority.
If Clinton thinks she can criticize Trump as a sexist without stirring up this broader resentment against liberals, she is in for a rude awakening. If she thinks there’s an alternative path to victory by largely writing off the white vote and leaning more heavily on the support of minorities, she’s probably wrong about that too: Clinton would simultaneously need massive turnout and near-unanimous support from minority groups to compensate for decreased support among white Americans. However, turnout has been low among Democrats in the primary. Moreover, Trump seems to be performing surprisingly well among minorities:
Mitt Romney only garnered 6 percent of the black vote in 2012. However, this election is shaping up to be more competitive: nearly one-tenth of African-Americans view the Donald positively, with another 15 percent undecided. If even half of the latter group ultimately sides with Trump, or simply stays home on Election Day, Clinton loses. For her to win, African-American participation needs to at least match 2012 turnout, and Clinton must win roughly 90 percent of the black vote. Right now, it’s looking like she might fail on both counts.
Perhaps more shocking: despite his anti-immigrant rhetoric, nearly one-quarter of Hispanics support Trump, with another 15 percent undecided—putting him on pace to possibly exceed Romney’s 2012 share (27 percent).
One reason to suspect these dynamics might hold: positive intersectionality. Trump’s ambivalence on gay marriage, his opposition to the so-called “Bathroom Bills” in North Carolina and elsewhere, his consistent praise for Planned Parenthood, his commitment to loosening the Republican platform on abortion, and his openness to legalizing marijuana (which would have a huge and positive impact on people of color)—these will counteract depictions of him as a xenophobe or bigot among those who view these struggles as interconnected. In fact, Trump’s unorthodox positions, when paired with the public’s record distrust of mainstream media, may lead many to believe he is being unfairly maligned in the press.
