Rozenstruik won't make it out of the Second Round.

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He might not even make it out of the first.

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Jailton is on a 13 fight win streak - 10 first round and 3 2nd round finishes. 7 submissions and 6 (T)KOs.
Jairzinho is 3-4 in his last 7. He has never been submitted, but he has never faced a BJJ black belt predator like Jailton either.

Physically Almeida has a 1" height and 1" reach advantage but he is light for a heavyweight (232lbs at his last outing, while Jairzinho was 261.5lbs). He is 4 years younger but has had 3 more fights in MMA (Rozenstruik also has an extensive kickboxing record).

Jairzinho is a dangerous striker - he has (T)KO wins over Overeem, Arlovski, JDS and Daukaus - but he is susceptible to takedowns and not the most savvy on the ground and that's exactly the threat that Jailton poses. Blaydes dominated Rozenstruik by taking him down and holding him down, although sometimes Rozenstruik was able to get up and he did get some solid shots in which damaged Blaydes's eye.

Almeida might not be as good of a wrestler as Blaydes but he is fast and his takedowns are solid. I think he can survive on the feet long enough to close the distance and take Rozenstruik to the mat and once the fight is there he's a ruthless finisher, either by submission or GnP. The threat of a shot will make Rozenstruik hesitant with his strikes and grappling will tire him quickly and slow him down.

Tough matchup for Jairzinho and if he keeps taking opponents this difficult I don't know how long he'll be staying in the UFC. A dangerous opponent for Jailton, he will have to be careful in the standup as to be fair he has never faced a striker this good either, but he has a clear path to victory and I think he gets the win within 2 rounds and continues his upward trajectory. He still should be fighting at LHW though. :mad:


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That’s not nice. You take that back!
 
OP is right but fuck the UFC for making such a mismatch and acting like it’s a compelling main event worthy fight.
 
Almeida looks like a welterweight on that pic, it's crazy
 
im not really sold on Almeida. if Rozenstruik is able to land that quick left straight he often lands, he could wipe out Almeida quick. Rozenstruik has the gas tank to go all 5 too - that last round Overeem knockout is a great example. if Almeida doesnt have the cardio beyond 3 rounds and he cant get Rozenstruik out of there before then, he's in deep trouble.
 
I appreciate your thoughts on the fight but...the guy that basically has -360 odds to finish it before the 3rd round starts should win in the first two rounds? It's not exactly a fun prediction. Not exactly much of a main event either so I guess it is what it is.
 
Overeem's lip disagrees.
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I agree that Almeida on-paper should be a significant favorite, but this is easily his most dangerous fight to date and Rozenstruik has plenty of traits that make me anxious as a fan of Jailton. An upset/derailment wouldn't overly surprise me, especially due to some of Almeida's tendencies and patterns inside the cage.
 
We know what we are getting from Rozenstruik at this point - slow, plodding, low-volume but with crazy power.

If Almeida tries to trade in the pocket I could easily see him getting slept, so definitely an IQ test fight.

He is undersized at HW and Rosenstruik is historically hard to hold down, so kind of interesting….but should he a 3 round prelim fight on a PPV lol.
 
I would be mildly surprised if he makes it out of the first.

But he's huge, and he has real stopping power, so I won't be too shocked if he pulls off the upset.
 
We'll see. I think Jairzinho is a live dog in this one. With Francis gone and Derrick Lewis on the decline, Rozenstruik is the guy I'd pick with the single most one-punch power in the UFC today. If he connects clean, you get hurt. He's got a 30+lb weight advantage on Jailton and one clean land from Jairzinho could easily put him to sleep. There is a ton of danger for Jailton in this one, he needs to be extremely careful with his entries. And it's not super easy to get Rozenstruik down either, especially with such a weight difference. I do think Jailton is the favorite in this one but I think the odds should be a lot closer than they are so I'm throwing some cash on Rozenstruik.
 
It should be an easy night for Almeida, but you never know. Rozen has been horrible in his last couple of fights. In what world is he a top 10 in the biggest org in the world I don't know. But so was Daukaus after losing 3 fights in a row in a matter of minutes.
HW being HW, is normal. I wish we had top15 full of Daniel Cormiers etc. Elite of the elite.
But if the Pink Goof is attracting talent giving them 20/20 then it's no wonder. If they cut half of the roster, gave the other half a substantial pay rise and increased the overall pay for the newcomers then the product would be better off.
UFC is sustaining a lot of its glory via the brand name. That's why they always have put the brand over the fighters.
You get to the UFC people will know you. Unless you butcher your "opportunity" as most fighters do when on the mic for example "I will fight whoever the UFC puts in front of me". Great. You just sounded like 400 other fighters before you.
Blows my mind that one of the only real benefits from being in the UFC, exposure, fighters don't really leverage.

Sorry for the off topic, I blame Rozen :)
 

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