Roy Nelson is a +180 underdog against Overeem

This isn't a very good match up for Reem. There's 2 possible outcomes: Alistair get's ko'd, or wins a very boring "Economical Reem" decision, which will take away any momentum he has going for him right now. Trust me, if Reem wins this it will be boring as shit. I'm hoping he gasses trying to hold down Big Country and eats an overhand right.
 
"Couldn't" isn't the right word here. Werdum chose to destroy Nelson where he has best dominated in his career, striking. Mir also just tooled him everywhere the fight went. Big Nog is way past his prime and there wasn't any chance for him to try for Submissions. I'm not saying it's for certain he will, but some people are writing the possibility off as if Overeem has never submitted a guy before.

Both Mir and Werdum had gotten on top of him at one point and both times he popped right back up without being in any danger of a sub.

Nelson also outgrappled Monson.
 
Overeem could actually outgrapple Nelson so Nelson has nothing but a big right hand in this fight.
 
i don't see how Reem putting BC out , if JDS couldn't
 
Both are heavy hitters but one has a pretty solid chin while the other has a glass jaw.

I'm really surprised Overeem is the favorite here.
 
Nelson is slower, has less gas, and gets hit more than reem. I got reem tko round 2
 
Overeem has a lousy chin, he crumbles under pressure time and time again. I am going with Roy Nelson by KO victory in round 1.
 
So was (and still is) Vitor Belfort...but Overeem submitted him in their first fight now, DIDN'T HE?! People act like BJJ BB can't be subbed. It's ridiculous.

Especially considering Overeem has submitted more opponents than he has KO'd. Roy only has 5 out of 20 of his wins by submissions. Overeem has 19 submissions in 38 wins. How is it so unlikely for Overeem to submit Nelson?

BJJ Blackbelts are typically about time and not based on achievement or ability. Most BJJ Blackbelts aren't world beaters. A lot of schools will speed up the process of black belt if the student fights or if they're close to the person. I'm not saying Vitor or Roy aren't legit on the ground but blackbelt in BJJ only means something if the school is known to be legit. Vitor is a Carlson Gracie blackbelt so he can fight. Roy I thought was somewhere in Vegas maybe Laimon, Drysdale, Etc. It's very subjective these days. I've been training for 5 years ( training 3-6 nights a week) and I'm a 4 stripe blue belt , I've fought mma, done 25 jiu jitsu tournaments and placed at the no Gi worlds. I've also rolled with guys in my city who are nowhere near my level and have their purple belt in 3 years. I've also seen guys get promoted who haven't trained at ALL as a way to encourage them to come back to training. It can get pretty stupid and is extremely subjective. Main point is that it really doesn't mean anything to say BJJ blackbelt as much as it does looking at the school and the accomplishments of said athlete within jiu jitsu.

And then you have guys who are BJJ Blackbelts legit and when they fight they can't seem to use their jiu jitsu effectively as they should on paper. Dennis Kang is an example of this. On the other end you have guys who aren't ranked high in BJJ but are absolute killers in the cage using their BJJ. Joe Lauzon would be a good example of this. Anthony Pettis as well (granted his BJJ looks world class after he's rung your bell a bit lol) .
 
Roy Nelson by RNC in RD2 provided his gut won't prevent the hooks

I believe
 
I see Overeem GSPeeing Nelson. Avoid exchanges, take him down, do a lil' GnP and pull out the decision. For Nelson all it takes is one shot.

It makes me wonder why Overeem doesn't use his ground game more.
 
Nelson's only weapon is his right hand. Reem is not exactly known for a high fight iq but he'll circle away from nelson's right. Maybe overeem can crack his chin too.

Hunt did that already.
 
Nelson might be the only HW in the top 10 with worse fight IQ than Reem. Odds seem okay to me.

Nelson just does not have the skills to defeat any fighter above the gatekeeper level. Overeem is that kind of fighter but with a bad fight IQ.
 
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