Roy Nelson is a +180 underdog against Overeem

[kflo]

To me this is Roys fight to lose.

how is that? it's overeem's to lose, but lose he could.

 

[TrueBias]

And he earned it back when they weren't handing them out like candy.

On the contrary, I think they hand them out now. BJJ black belts almost mean nothing these days.

 

[Chapter40z]

Overeem takes down Roy and subs him

the take down might happen but Roy doesn't get subbed

 

[Blah4]

Overeem needs to wrassle and clinch from the get go. Hopefully he can make Nelson tired without gassing out himself. What he shouldnt do is try to fight like Jon Jones because he doesnt have the striking defense for it.

 

[Author]

I will invoke mma math and say that because JDS couldn't put Nelson out, the Reem is in trouble.

 

[Sapphorous]

Easy money to be made as far as I'm concerned.

 

[ixRanGzeNxi]

Nelson is a BJJ blackbelt

So was (and still is) Vitor Belfort...but Overeem submitted him in their first fight now, DIDN'T HE?! People act like BJJ BB can't be subbed. It's ridiculous.

Especially considering Overeem has submitted more opponents than he has KO'd. Roy only has 5 out of 20 of his wins by submissions. Overeem has 19 submissions in 38 wins. How is it so unlikely for Overeem to submit Nelson?

 

[Black Blood]

Overeem is the bigger, stronger, faster guy with better technique. Roy has a punchers chance. If Overeem fights smart (clinch striking, group and pound) he should win easily.

 

[Cro Cop Is Back]

Time to bet the house on Roy?

 

[ixRanGzeNxi]

Overeem is the bigger, stronger, faster guy with better technique. Roy has a punchers chance. If Overeem fights smart (clinch striking, group and pound) he should win easily.

Whoa whoa whoa! When did the UFC allow "Handicap Matches"?

Is this what they brought over along with CM Punk?

 

[ixRanGzeNxi]

Overeem needs to wrassle and clinch from the get go. Hopefully he can make Nelson tired without gassing out himself. What he shouldnt do is try to fight like Jon Jones because he doesnt have the striking defense for it.

You mean like this?

 

[Jinn]

How is it so unlikely for Overeem to submit Nelson?

Well he fought Mir, Werdum, Nog (beyond washed up I know but the name is worth throwing in the mix) and Jeff Monson all without getting subbed.

Overeem's ground game is pretty tight but I don't see him subbing someone that those 4 couldn't.

 

[ixRanGzeNxi]

Well he fought Mir, Werdum, Nog (beyond washed up I know but the name is worth throwing in the mix) and Jeff Monson all without getting subbed.

Overeem's ground game is pretty tight but I don't see him subbing someone that those 4 couldn't.

"Couldn't" isn't the right word here. Werdum chose to destroy Nelson where he has best dominated in his career, striking. Mir also just tooled him everywhere the fight went. Big Nog is way past his prime and there wasn't any chance for him to try for Submissions. I'm not saying it's for certain he will, but some people are writing the possibility off as if Overeem has never submitted a guy before.


EDIT: Never saw the Monson fight

 

[M Raid K]

Bet on Roy immediately. If someone looked awful in his last fight, it doesn't necessarily mean he has to lose the next one. Roy is one of the hardest hitters even by HW standarts, he landed N-bomb almost on everyone he fought. Reem doesn't have a good striking defense and folds after the first missed strike nowadays. Styles make fights.

 

[MurrDawg]

I'm taking that bet. Overeem will get hit with that overhand right. Nelson should be favorite IMO

 

[tenniswhiz]

I think Reem plays it safe and takes the decision.

Reem is a tad underrated on Sherdog and Roy is incredibly overrated on Sherdog.

 

[Torrid]

Reem is going to try to circle away from the right of Roy, throwing side kicks to the leg and mixing up TDs when he can. It's really come to 'this'. Reem is going to have to game plan Roy to shit while Werdum stood and traded with him for fifteen straight.

I hope Roy cracks him so hard he wakes up in Bellator fighting Kongo.

 

[rudy323]

Let's look at Overeem's last 8 opponents

WIN Stefan Struve- 28% KOs
LOSS(KO) Rothwell- 59% KOs
WIN Frank Mir- 19% KOs
LOSS(KO) Travis Browne- 79% KOs
LOSS(KO) Bigfoot- 72% KOs
WIN Brock- 40% KOs
WIN Werdum- 32% KOs

??? Roy Nelson- 65% KOs

It seems there's a trend that when he fights 50%+KOs fighter, he gets knocked out but is a great fighter against grapplers.

I'm a fan of the Reem but he's at the part of his career and enough of a draw to pick out better matchups for himself.

 

[JKS]

I think its a 50/50 fight

 

[Phobophile83]

Nelson at +200 now. Definitely some good value on Roy that price.