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No she really doesn't have a chance.
Holm doesn't really have fight ending power to threaten Ronda or to deter her from rushing in and throwing bombs like she did against Coreia. She might be a better overall striker but anyone who thinks this fight will be kept at a distance where Holm can pot shot her way to a decision victory is absolutely insane.
Ronda wins and wins impressively once again. Ronda by KO or SUB Round 1 depending on how she wants to take it. She might want to prove a point and KO the 'better striker' or just embarrass her by throwing her to the ground and ripping her arm off immediately.
I don't care if she trains at Jackson's that simply won't matter. How the hell is Holm more 'battle tested'? I can't believe people keep hyping Ronda's next opponent as the one to change things.
Holm has ZERO plausible paths to victory.
Your post is probably spot on. Ronda by whatever method she wants. Fans at some point are going to have to stop underestimating how much better Ronda has become since becoming the UFC champion. She has KO'ed 3 of her last 4 opponents. She doesn't have to arm bar people anymore if that isn't the plan.