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Ronda is the clear favorite and she should be. She's looked unbeatable compared to the rest of the division for years. She also has an insane advantage in the grappling department. Considering that nearly every MMA fight involves some sort of grappling, it makes sense to have Ronda as the favorite. But make no mistake, Holly has the tools to win this fight.
All Holly really has to do is fight on her back foot on the outside for 5 rounds. As a back up plan, work on her closed guard. Holly may not be a Leila Ali level boxer, but she's leagues beyond Ronda in that department. She has an undeniable advantage in that department. And while Ronda has the grappling advantage, she has her limitations.
The truth is, Ronda does not have a double leg worth fearing. The odds are against her developing one within a 5 week fight camp. Her main method of getting the takedown is to jab into the clinch blindly while eating punches to get head control. And even if she does catch a double leg, she doesn't exactly have Mark Coleman or Tito Ortiz level full guard ground and pound. Go watch her roll.
I could be wrong on this, but from what I see, she can barely pass guard without creating a scramble opportunity. And I don't see her dealing with closed guard at all. I have a strong suspicion that Ronda would get stuck in Holly's closed guard if it got there. So even if Ronda did pull off a double leg, I could see Holly just pulling closed guard and elbowing her for the rest of the round. I have a feeling that Ronda would not do well with getting her face hamburgered by elbows.
The other advantage for Holly is her coaching staff. Jackson/Wink are easily the best strategists in the game. When dealing with someone with a very distinct stylistic advantage, the best way to beat them is to use a strategy that takes away the opponent's strengths.
Ronda is one dimensional. I'm impressed that she's developed some KO power, but anyone who knows striking knows that those punches to Bethe were still super sloppy and easily countered by a competent boxer. Holly is a competent boxer. But back to my point; Ronda is one dimensional. She's the best in her division at that one dimension, but if she is taken out of her element, she will have little to offer Holly.
So it comes down to Holly employing her strengths and avoiding Ronda's. Easier said than done, but not as hard as you might think. Without real fear of leg based takedowns, Holly can feel more free to box. With Ronda's primary way of entering the clinch being to pump the jab, close her eyes and reach for head control, it shouldn't be hard for Holly to counter, back pedal, circle out, and regain the center of the octagon while leaving Ronda chasing and frustrated. Keeping it real, Ronda's boxing really is that rudimentary. And like I said, even if it goes to the ground, I believe that Holly can neutralize Ronda with some basic old school closed guard, head control, and elbows.
All that said, if I were forced to make a prediction, I would still say that Ronda wins. I think it's obvious that Holly will be fighting off her back foot to avoid the clinch and fight on the outside. An easy strategy for Ronda to use would be to stalk her down, cut off the cage, go for the double against the cage, climb up the body for the upper body clinch, judo toss. Armbar. Or even pull guard and armbar. But all Ronda has to do to win this is figure out a way to clinch up. I predict that it will be harder for Holly to avoid the clinch than it will be for Ronda to find it.
I'm still putting money on Holly because the profits will be bigger and she is the best underdog in a while. I don't think she'll pull it off but I won't be too surprised if she does it exactly how I predict it.
All Holly really has to do is fight on her back foot on the outside for 5 rounds. As a back up plan, work on her closed guard. Holly may not be a Leila Ali level boxer, but she's leagues beyond Ronda in that department. She has an undeniable advantage in that department. And while Ronda has the grappling advantage, she has her limitations.
The truth is, Ronda does not have a double leg worth fearing. The odds are against her developing one within a 5 week fight camp. Her main method of getting the takedown is to jab into the clinch blindly while eating punches to get head control. And even if she does catch a double leg, she doesn't exactly have Mark Coleman or Tito Ortiz level full guard ground and pound. Go watch her roll.
I could be wrong on this, but from what I see, she can barely pass guard without creating a scramble opportunity. And I don't see her dealing with closed guard at all. I have a strong suspicion that Ronda would get stuck in Holly's closed guard if it got there. So even if Ronda did pull off a double leg, I could see Holly just pulling closed guard and elbowing her for the rest of the round. I have a feeling that Ronda would not do well with getting her face hamburgered by elbows.
The other advantage for Holly is her coaching staff. Jackson/Wink are easily the best strategists in the game. When dealing with someone with a very distinct stylistic advantage, the best way to beat them is to use a strategy that takes away the opponent's strengths.
Ronda is one dimensional. I'm impressed that she's developed some KO power, but anyone who knows striking knows that those punches to Bethe were still super sloppy and easily countered by a competent boxer. Holly is a competent boxer. But back to my point; Ronda is one dimensional. She's the best in her division at that one dimension, but if she is taken out of her element, she will have little to offer Holly.
So it comes down to Holly employing her strengths and avoiding Ronda's. Easier said than done, but not as hard as you might think. Without real fear of leg based takedowns, Holly can feel more free to box. With Ronda's primary way of entering the clinch being to pump the jab, close her eyes and reach for head control, it shouldn't be hard for Holly to counter, back pedal, circle out, and regain the center of the octagon while leaving Ronda chasing and frustrated. Keeping it real, Ronda's boxing really is that rudimentary. And like I said, even if it goes to the ground, I believe that Holly can neutralize Ronda with some basic old school closed guard, head control, and elbows.
All that said, if I were forced to make a prediction, I would still say that Ronda wins. I think it's obvious that Holly will be fighting off her back foot to avoid the clinch and fight on the outside. An easy strategy for Ronda to use would be to stalk her down, cut off the cage, go for the double against the cage, climb up the body for the upper body clinch, judo toss. Armbar. Or even pull guard and armbar. But all Ronda has to do to win this is figure out a way to clinch up. I predict that it will be harder for Holly to avoid the clinch than it will be for Ronda to find it.
I'm still putting money on Holly because the profits will be bigger and she is the best underdog in a while. I don't think she'll pull it off but I won't be too surprised if she does it exactly how I predict it.
