Ronda is the clear favorite and she should be. She's looked unbeatable compared to the rest of the division for years. She also has an insane advantage in the grappling department. Considering that nearly every MMA fight involves some sort of grappling, it makes sense to have Ronda as the favorite. But make no mistake, Holly has the tools to win this fight. All Holly really has to do is fight on her back foot on the outside for 5 rounds. As a back up plan, work on her closed guard. Holly may not be a Leila Ali level boxer, but she's leagues beyond Ronda in that department. She has an undeniable advantage in that department. And while Ronda has the grappling advantage, she has her limitations. The truth is, Ronda does not have a double leg worth fearing. The odds are against her developing one within a 5 week fight camp. Her main method of getting the takedown is to jab into the clinch blindly while eating punches to get head control. And even if she does catch a double leg, she doesn't exactly have Mark Coleman or Tito Ortiz level full guard ground and pound. Go watch her roll. I could be wrong on this, but from what I see, she can barely pass guard without creating a scramble opportunity. And I don't see her dealing with closed guard at all. I have a strong suspicion that Ronda would get stuck in Holly's closed guard if it got there. So even if Ronda did pull off a double leg, I could see Holly just pulling closed guard and elbowing her for the rest of the round. I have a feeling that Ronda would not do well with getting her face hamburgered by elbows. The other advantage for Holly is her coaching staff. Jackson/Wink are easily the best strategists in the game. When dealing with someone with a very distinct stylistic advantage, the best way to beat them is to use a strategy that takes away the opponent's strengths. Ronda is one dimensional. I'm impressed that she's developed some KO power, but anyone who knows striking knows that those punches to Bethe were still super sloppy and easily countered by a competent boxer. Holly is a competent boxer. But back to my point; Ronda is one dimensional. She's the best in her division at that one dimension, but if she is taken out of her element, she will have little to offer Holly. So it comes down to Holly employing her strengths and avoiding Ronda's. Easier said than done, but not as hard as you might think. Without real fear of leg based takedowns, Holly can feel more free to box. With Ronda's primary way of entering the clinch being to pump the jab, close her eyes and reach for head control, it shouldn't be hard for Holly to counter, back pedal, circle out, and regain the center of the octagon while leaving Ronda chasing and frustrated. Keeping it real, Ronda's boxing really is that rudimentary. And like I said, even if it goes to the ground, I believe that Holly can neutralize Ronda with some basic old school closed guard, head control, and elbows. All that said, if I were forced to make a prediction, I would still say that Ronda wins. I think it's obvious that Holly will be fighting off her back foot to avoid the clinch and fight on the outside. An easy strategy for Ronda to use would be to stalk her down, cut off the cage, go for the double against the cage, climb up the body for the upper body clinch, judo toss. Armbar. Or even pull guard and armbar. But all Ronda has to do to win this is figure out a way to clinch up. I predict that it will be harder for Holly to avoid the clinch than it will be for Ronda to find it. I'm still putting money on Holly because the profits will be bigger and she is the best underdog in a while. I don't think she'll pull it off but I won't be too surprised if she does it exactly how I predict it.
Rousey vs competent boxer from Jackson/Winkeljon trying to fight off her back foot from the outside (skip to 1:10) Clinch at 4 seconds Takedown at 12 seconds Roll to armbar position at 20 seconds Tap at 49 seconds. [YT]kOkYzYh5XD0[/YT]
Good points, and that strategy should work in theory. I hope it does happen. I think Holly will do better than most on here think, but i still see Ronda getting the win.
I don't see any competent boxer or fighting off the back foot here. Kaufman plants her feet as Rousey closes in and throws sloppy 1-2s as she gets sucked in. That's "how to fail vs Rousey 101".
You have extremely low standards for what you consider competent boxing. LOL. I'm no Holly Holm jock rider, but comparing Kaufmann's footwork to Holly's, you'd see a pretty big skill gap. Holm would not have planted her feet to throw a one two then gotten tied up. That's literally the opposite of the strategy I outlined. She would likely just circle out without a strike thrown at all. Keep the back away from the fence. Control the center. Stay on the outside with long kicks to the calf, oblique kicks to the knee, long jabs. Check hooks. But no planting and one two and getting tied up.
She stands a chance. Holm will surprise some people. If she can survive the first round and take the fight to the later rounds she stands a chance of winning. I want to see Ronda go into those championship rounds and see how her conditioning holds up.
You could be right or you could be wrong. Your analysis is logical and makes sense. I don't care who wins personally, but if Holm wins I hope it's by head kick. Nothing against Ronda, I just love head kicks. I wish there was a league where that was the only method of attacking allowed. That being said, if you're wrong about this analysis, it's 99.999999% guaranteed that gloating, fedora-wearing, Ronda fanboys will bump this up and take a big steamy crunch all over it lol.
Each time I think about it the more I'm certain that Dana will continue to put young ou bad fighters to fight with Ronda so the bandwagon keeps getting bigger and the UFC can get one more mainstream fighter. Also, the womens divisions just suck completely. This is bad for the sport, but good for business.
Didn't buy the Bethe drama and won't buy the silly holly matchup significance. Fight sucks. We can hope for an injury replacement.
LOL at anyone thinking that Holly can win this fight with footwork. Holly couldn't even finish a girl who basically stood in front of her for 3 rounds doing NOTHING. Holly fights scared, and went to a decision with two fighters who can't beat anyone in the Top 5. If she was scared to do something significant and meaningful to Pennington and Reneau, she will prolly pee herself against Ronda. That said, if Holly can manage to land a head kick KO right before the clinch, she wins.
But wait minute .. This is the fighter that everyone said that the UFC had to sign, and the only one outside of Cyborg who had a chance to beat Ronda. Just last year Ronda and the UFC were being accused of ducking Holly .. Dana even had to make several public statements to counter the talk about the UFC ducking Holly to protect Ronda. Now she's a bad fighter, and her fighting Ronda is not good for the sport? Spin spin brah.
Holm has no chance. The only way she could win would be by decision. For all her boxing prowess, she has no power. Her MMA finishes have come from kicks, and she'd be opening up herself to takedowns, so utilizing kicks is unlikely. She's not going to be able to KO Ronda. And in a 5 round fight, Ronda will eventually get her hands on her, take her to the mat, and sub her. This fight ends like all the others...quickly, and non-competitively.
