Robberies tend to happen more in five round fights than in three round fights

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Not A Real Fan, Feb 20, 2020.

  1. Not A Real Fan

    Not A Real Fan Purple Belt

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    Three round robberies exist but statistically there should be WAY more given that three round fights outnumber five rounders 10+ to 1. For every five round robbery, there should 5+ on the undercard. Instead, if you get any, you have one maybe two at the very most.

    Below is just a sampling off the top of my head as I'm sure many of you can add to this list. I don't necessarily agree that these were all robberies but for each fight enough fans thought so.

    Jones-Gus 1
    Jones-Santos
    Jones-Reyes
    GSP-Hendricks
    Condit-Diaz
    Machida-Shogun 1
    DJ-Cejudo 2

    The longer the fight, the greater the chance for a robbery. Why is that?
     
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  2. updowniri

    updowniri Blue Belt

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    2/3 > 3/5.

    More people are invested in those fights so they are noticed more.
     
  3. calisoul

    calisoul Purple Belt

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  4. ignorant MMA fan

    ignorant MMA fan Brown Belt

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    I don't think the "3 round robberies" need to exist on the same card. But 5 round robberies probably have something to do with more opportunity for judges to score rounds differently leading to an unpopular decision.
     
  5. Sweater of AV

    Sweater of AV Silver Belt

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    You're just remembering the bigger fights. There have been plenty of bad three round decisions.
     
  6. Substance Abuse

    Substance Abuse Plutonium Belt Platinum Member

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    Hardly.
     
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  7. El Fernas

    El Fernas Silver Belt

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    More rounds = more chances of a different opinion, also the later rounds seem to vary depending on fighters cardio rather than their skills, so one guy more active can sway judges into thinking he won.
     
  8. Rambo89

    Rambo89 Blue Belt

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    The 5 round fights are typically bigger name/title fights so you remember them much clearer than the dude that got screwed over on the prelims.. there are tons of awful decisions in 3 round fights. The worst robbery imo in modern UFC history is Ross Pearson vs Diego Sanchez
     
  9. Ares Black

    Ares Black Asteroid Belt

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    None of those fights are robberies IMO.
     
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  10. Volador

    Volador Blue Belt

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    You are wrong.

    The only conceivable robberies there are GSP-Hendricks, Jones-Reyes and Machida-Shogun 1. There’s more 3rd robberies, but they happen in less important fights so you don’t remember them, or ever find out because they are less memorable. This is a basic logical fallacy called notoriety bias.

    On top of that, pure mathematics would also predict that, not only are there many more 3 rounders, it is also more probable for poor judging to affect the result of a 3rd fight than of a 5rd fight, because there’s less buffer for errors the less rounds you have.

    The only other factor would be that sometimes I think judges are biased in favor of the reigning champ (evidenced by the “to be the champ you gotta beat the champ” drivel), but I don’t think nearly enough to offset the other factors.
     
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  11. felmmando

    felmmando Black Belt

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    All of them have been denounced as such. I reckon it would be easier to find someone who thinks all of them were than someone who agrees with you that none of them were. Personally, I think most of them were and the ones I don't deem robberies, I recognise were close enough to be controversial.
     
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  12. RustyShacleford

    RustyShacleford Blue Belt

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    I watched all those fights and pretty much had them called the same way as the judges. The Reyes fight was the only one where I actually thought Jon had lost 3 rounds, but even then I wouldn't call it a robbery considering how close it was.

    Frankly I'm hard pressed to think of anything outside of Pearson/Diaz where there was really no explanation for the judges decision. Maybe Hammil/Bisping.
     
  13. SeattleFightFan

    SeattleFightFan Steel Belt

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    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    What you're seeing is more fan attention on bigger fights, not more robberies.

    Case in point, the Soliz round 1 score of Gavin v Krause was exponentially worse than any of his scores in Jones v Reyes, including rounds 2 & 3.

    But Jones v Reyes got exponentially more fan attention than Gavin v Krause.

    That's exponential^2, in case anyone is following.

    Bias is a bitch. Being smart enough to overcome biases proves you're not a bitch.

    (apologize if my spelling is off)
     
  14. Ingjr

    Ingjr Brown Belt

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    Notice how Jones appears in your list multiple times. Not only a cheater but gets the nod from the judges way too often.
     
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  15. LEWIS540

    LEWIS540 .

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    Close fight where the fighter I wanted to win lost = robbery.

    All those fights were clearly competitive and close.
     
  16. capnlarge

    capnlarge Silver Belt

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    From your list, it appears to me that you are heavily invested in seeing Jon Jones lose and he only fights in 5-round fights, so that could be the explanation.
     
  17. felmmando

    felmmando Black Belt

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    Which at least raises the suspicion that he cheats in ways that don't involve drugs or eye pokes.

    But in fairness to Jones, I think Benson Henderson was the beneficiary of even more robberies and he doesn't cheat, as far as I know.
     
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  18. felmmando

    felmmando Black Belt

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    Naw. I mean, I don't doubt any of us can be misled by partiality but there are fights where I really wasn't rooting for anybody that I think were robberies.
    I can also think of at least one fight that was denounced as a robbery where the fighter I wanted to win lost and I recognised it was a legit decision.
     
  19. leto1776

    leto1776 Sherdog Wet Shaver Platinum Member

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    No stats in OP, uses the word “should.”

    fail
     
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  20. 13 others

    13 others Brown Belt

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    Statistically there are way more three rd fights thstatistically there is more 3 round robberies. You must have a PhD in stats.
     

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