Richest 1% to own more than the rest

The tea party movement has become one of the greatest impediments to human progress. You can't have a conversation about wealth disparity at all without being flagged as a commie. We have regressed about 50 years.
 
lets say you are very concerned about employment and you set out to create 1000 jobs that are sustainable.

How will you do this without on paper you become very wealthy. You don't spend a dime on yourself, it is all into building the business that causes a net gain of 1000 jobs.

Ever bit that is taken from you reduces the size of the economy and costs jobs.
 
The tea party movement has become one of the greatest impediments to human progress. You can't have a conversation about wealth disparity at all without being flagged as a commie. We have regressed about 50 years.

Even Bill Clinton's Economic advisors would argue that wealth creation is required to sustain job growth.

I remember large chunks from a 300 level governmental econ class written by a Clinton advisor.

Tell me how you will create a net gain of 1000 jobs, you don't get to count the jobs that are destroyed in the process. If you destroy 100 jobs you need to employ 1100 people. Now do it in such away that you on paper are not very wealthy, it does not matter that you ever spend a dime on yourself, you are on paper very wealthy.
 
Lets say we take all of the people worth 100 million dollars and take it away. Some of this is not going to be cash, it is going to be equipment, machines, a building where people work.

That will all be dismantled because if I have a building and factory machines it is counted on a balance sheet the same as cash.

Now watch tax revenues drop to a fraction of what they are and watch unemployment go through the roof. Both private and public sector jobs will suffer.
 
I suspect they know these dynamics better than most, and it is no coincidence that we see an increased police state forming.

If conflict arises I expect that to provide an excuse for clamp down and a more soviet style system to emerge to control the population. There will be plans in place, that is for sure.

While that's possible, it's also true that when these types of hierarchy's collapse, the mob's not kind on the ruling class.

Time solves that problem. And again, I've never seen anything suggesting that the money reaches a critical mass. Fortunes are made and lost every generation.

I agree on the individual level. However, the problem is over time the wealthy have made more than they have lost. Face it... it's easier to accumulate money when you have money and resources at your disposal.

The problem isn't that the wealthy have so much money - after all it's not a zero-sum game. The huge issue is that the buying power available to the middle and poor class have diminished. This is the inherent problem with a more capitalistic system and minimal corporate ethics. In a way, this is the corporate version of the prisoner's dilemma with society reaping the consequences.
 
While that's possible, it's also true that when these types of hierarchy's collapse, the mob's not kind on the ruling class.

'perceived' ruling class. The mob would have to locate the true Oligarchs who are globalist. The oil ty****s, the central banking ty****s, etc. Even if people knew who they all were they would be difficult to locate and get to in a time of termoil.

It's not like there is a castle with the king located in it for people to storm, and mobs are notoriously simple minded in nature. They'd probably end up fighting each other in disarray or be organized by a state actor to point them in the wrong direction.
 
Last edited:
While that's possible, it's also true that when these types of hierarchy's collapse, the mob's not kind on the ruling class.



I agree on the individual level. However, the problem is over time the wealthy have made more than they have lost. Face it... it's easier to accumulate money when you have money and resources at your disposal.

The problem isn't that the wealthy have so much money - after all it's not a zero-sum game. The huge issue is that the buying power available to the middle and poor class have diminished. This is the inherent problem with a more capitalistic system and minimal corporate ethics. In a way, this is the corporate version of the prisoner's dilemma with society reaping the consequences.

What has changed is mercantilism and other factors reducing the level of production in the USA and Europe. Mercantilism creates a balance of payments issue and in the long run is bad for both sides.

We also have other disinsentives to produce in the USA. The tax rate on a business in the USA is the highest in the world when combined with state tax unless something has changed recently.
 
Right but he's not leaving them $438M each. and they won't be leaving their kids (assuming 2 or more) $438M each. Meanwhile the rest of the world will continue to innovate and develop and other people will outperform that $438M. And some people with $438M will make bad decisions and lose a lot it.

Time solves that problem. And again, I've never seen anything suggesting that the money reaches a critical mass. Fortunes are made and lost every generation.


If we agree that someone with $100M can easily turn that fortune to $438M just off of low risk modest investments during his life, he will leave 2-3 heirs with a better starting point than he did. Each of those heirs can then follow the same safe strategy... so I don't see how that kind of wealth would ever get squandered once it has been acquired. If anything the wealth would only increase, even if each generation lived lavishly and didn't work.

Sure the rest of the world will continue to develop, etc... but not sure why that would be relevant here. As the world develops, the investors make money off of the growth of those companies doing the developing... that's what they are counting on.

Even people who are really dumb and can't make good financial decisions can easily afford to pay smart people to make investment decisions for them once they have that kind of money. I'm not saying it is impossible for them to lose it, but they would have to exceptionally dumb to lose that kind of money, especially in 1 generation.

The tax advantages don't come close to mitigating the risk in a meaningful way. The tax breaks do not offset the loss of the capital, they simply reduce the tax hit on money you no longer have. And, ask anyone with 2 nickels to rub together, they'd rather have their money back instead of some negligible reduction in their tax bill.

I agree, that's why said to a certain degree, and just kind of mentioned it as a footnote. But the main point I was making is that even the low risk investment would result in enough wealth snowballing to leave future generations in a better position than original investor.

Basically I don't think time solves this issue. If anything time is on the side of the wealthy investor.
 
'perceived' ruling class. The mob would have to locate the true Oligarchs who are globalist. The oil ty****s, the central banking ty****s, etc. Even if people knew who they all were they would be difficult to locate and get to in a time of termoil.

It's not like there is a castle with the king located in it for people to storm, and mobs are notoriously simple minded in nature. They'd probably end up fighting each other in disarray or be organized by a state actor to point them in the wrong direction.

Good point. Governments have risen and fallen. However the same bloodlines remain in control. And they stay out of the news.
 
I agree on the individual level. However, the problem is over time the wealthy have made more than they have lost. Face it... it's easier to accumulate money when you have money and resources at your disposal.

The problem isn't that the wealthy have so much money - after all it's not a zero-sum game. The huge issue is that the buying power available to the middle and poor class have diminished. This is the inherent problem with a more capitalistic system and minimal corporate ethics. In a way, this is the corporate version of the prisoner's dilemma with society reaping the consequences.

Over time, society as a whole has made more than it's lost. I consider that a plus.

I also disagree that the buying power available to the middle class and the poor has diminished. They have more buying power than ever before. They have a greater array of products and a greater access to capital than at any other time in history.

We can simply buy far more than previous generations thanks to the increases in the means of production. Although it doesn't seem that way, it's probably because we spend so much time looking at the luxury end of the marketplace and because we artificially restrict our timeline to the period right after WWII..
 
If we agree that someone with $100M can easily turn that fortune to $438M just off of low risk modest investments during his life, he will leave 2-3 heirs with a better starting point than he did. Each of those heirs can then follow the same safe strategy... so I don't see how that kind of wealth would ever get squandered once it has been acquired. If anything the wealth would only increase, even if each generation lived lavishly and didn't work.

Sure the rest of the world will continue to develop, etc... but not sure why that would be relevant here. As the world develops, the investors make money off of the growth of those companies doing the developing... that's what they are counting on.

Even people who are really dumb and can't make good financial decisions can easily afford to pay smart people to make investment decisions for them once they have that kind of money. I'm not saying it is impossible for them to lose it, but they would have to exceptionally dumb to lose that kind of money, especially in 1 generation.
Yeah, his reply to your argument was a stretch.
 
If we agree that someone with $100M can easily turn that fortune to $438M just off of low risk modest investments during his life, he will leave 2-3 heirs with a better starting point than he did. Each of those heirs can then follow the same safe strategy... so I don't see how that kind of wealth would ever get squandered once it has been acquired. If anything the wealth would only increase, even if each generation lived lavishly and didn't work.

Sure the rest of the world will continue to develop, etc... but not sure why that would be relevant here. As the world develops, the investors make money off of the growth of those companies doing the developing... that's what they are counting on.

Even people who are really dumb and can't make good financial decisions can easily afford to pay smart people to make investment decisions for them once they have that kind of money. I'm not saying it is impossible for them to lose it, but they would have to exceptionally dumb to lose that kind of money, especially in 1 generation.



I agree, that's why said to a certain degree, and just kind of mentioned it as a footnote. But the main point I was making is that even the low risk investment would result in enough wealth snowballing to leave future generations in a better position than original investor.

Basically I don't think time solves this issue. If anything time is on the side of the wealthy investor.

I'm not going to convince you just by typing. Instead, look at the richest men in American history. Then look at where their heirs are today in terms of wealth rank.

Also a brief read: http://www.philanthropyroundtable.o...hilanthropy/the_transience_of_american_wealth
 
If we agree that someone with $100M can easily turn that fortune to $438M just off of low risk modest investments during his life, he will leave 2-3 heirs with a better starting point than he did. Each of those heirs can then follow the same safe strategy... so I don't see how that kind of wealth would ever get squandered once it has been acquired. If anything the wealth would only increase, even if each generation lived lavishly and didn't work.

Sure the rest of the world will continue to develop, etc... but not sure why that would be relevant here. As the world develops, the investors make money off of the growth of those companies doing the developing... that's what they are counting on.

Even people who are really dumb and can't make good financial decisions can easily afford to pay smart people to make investment decisions for them once they have that kind of money. I'm not saying it is impossible for them to lose it, but they would have to exceptionally dumb to lose that kind of money, especially in 1 generation.



I agree, that's why said to a certain degree, and just kind of mentioned it as a footnote. But the main point I was making is that even the low risk investment would result in enough wealth snowballing to leave future generations in a better position than original investor.

Basically I don't think time solves this issue. If anything time is on the side of the wealthy investor.

If that return was made over fixed securities it either took a long time to do it and it will not have made much after inflation and taxes or it was a capital gain off of a favorable change in interest rates, that also has risk due to interest moving against you.

If you have a long term bond and interest rates rise your bond not sells less on the secondary market than you paid for it. If interest rates drop you can sell it for more than you paid.

If you carry it to term you have inflation risk.

If it was done via equity you were exposed to risk. Not always that easy. You are showing over a 400% financial return but if the time frame was long enough that changes everything. You don't get a 400% return in the short term without taking risk. If the time frame was long enough it was eroded.
 
Yeah, his reply to your argument was a stretch.

Only when you think of the individual and exclude the rest of the economy and world changing around them. Take a look at the link I provided to him on the transience of American wealth.

There's a reason that old world wealth only went to the first born and everyone else was forced to find a living, join the military or join the church.
 
It's not like there is a castle with the king located in it for people to storm, and mobs are notoriously simple minded in nature. They'd probably end up fighting each other in disarray or be organized by a state actor to point them in the wrong direction.

While everything has indeed gone global, the internet has vastly shrunken the world we live in. No matter the resources, I don't think the .01% can just vanish without a trace. After all, who's serving them?

What has changed is mercantilism and other factors reducing the level of production in the USA and Europe. Mercantilism creates a balance of payments issue and in the long run is bad for both sides.

I fail to see how mercantilism is inherently bad. Now, if it's a 1st world country suddenly opening up free trade to a developing nation, the 1st world country is definitely going to feel the economic pinch and the developing nation is going to be exploited. But in the long run everyone benefits.
 
Of course there are lots of factors but it is a very simple concept if we break it down...

Lets say someone has inherited $100M at age 25, and makes roughly 3.1% a year from investments on that $100M (which would be modest). That would be an income of around $3.1M/year. Even if that person lived very lavishly spending $100K per year, he would have roughly $3M to reinvest per year.

Now if we assume this person lives to age 75, and we compound 3% per year for 50 years... his fortune would have grown to around $438M (more than quadrupled) by the time of his death (without working a day in his life). Even if we adjust for inflation and taxes over the years, this person would still have made enough to give 2-3 heirs the same starting position that he had or better.

Also I think it would be safe to say someone with $100M can afford a team of investment advisers/analysts which would easily outperform the 3.1% per year in this example.



There's always some degree of risk when it comes to investments, but even in the example I used with a modest risk/return rate you can see how easy it still is for money to snowball, assuming you have a large amount of capital to start with.

Furthermore, investors enjoy tax advantages when they report their realized losses which does mitigate the risk to a certain degree.

I do see the term numbers are in there.

You do realize that on average that 100K is less valuable each year. My first house was 27K, it would sell for more than 100K today. It is a trick that annuity sellers like to use.

They find a young couple an the salesman asks them "How would you like to retire with XXX amount of money when you reach retirement age. The couple are impressed and excited. So they invest and their entire working life only to find that the income they start to draw is as advertised but things have changed such that it is poverty level.

I remember when earning 30k made you one of the highest earners in the neighbor hood and my Grandmother told me about earning $4.00 a day.

Also where are you going to get 3.1% today? I don't know if a 30 year bond will do it right now or not. Last time I looked it wouldn't.

Buy that bond and if a year later interest rates have gone up 1% your bond will sell for much less. If the interest rate has gone up it is an indication that inflation has increased so your buying power has dropped and the secondary market value of your bond had gone down.

Your generational investment for your grandchildren gets that a mean at McDonalds every week.
 
Stupid classist argument. Might as well say the first world will enjoy most of the wealth as the line for where the top 1% starts (assets of 800K) is not that high a bar for working class folks with a goal to retire a mortgage and have minimal savings before retirement.
 
While everything has indeed gone global, the internet has vastly shrunken the world we live in. No matter the resources, I don't think the .01% can just vanish without a trace. After all, who's serving them?



I fail to see how mercantilism is inherently bad. Now, if it's a 1st world country suddenly opening up free trade to a developing nation, the 1st world country is definitely going to feel the economic pinch and the developing nation is going to be exploited. But in the long run everyone benefits.

It creates growth but there is long term pain. First you are producing more than you consume. You have a trade surplus. (you want neither surplus or deficit). Because currencies should float and under mercantilism they don't a problem will start to develop.

To have a trade surplus someone has to have a trade deficit. Your people are getting paid less in real terms. Even if you raise wages inflation will be forced upon the economy. Keeping the currency from floating has to be done by artificial means.

Your population cannot buy as much of what it produces because they can't afford it.

The side with the trade deficit might be producing 5 units of production and consuming 10, they feel rich at this point.

Your population is producing 10 units of production and consuming 5.

If the currency floated the trade def and surp would shift back and forth over time.

To prevent the currency from floating the government buys up the the foreign currency. This start creating debt.

(Will continue in a moment.)

Overtime the country with the trade deficit will start having unemployment but they have cheap products. The country with the trade surplus is working very hard for what they can buy and cannot consume as much as they produce but they produce a lot because of how much is being sold to export.

The mercantilistic country has a stack of foreign currency. The other country has to start taking on debt because of unemployment and underemployment so the need for social services increases. The mercantilist has to put the currency someplace or have to import with that currency but of them import it isn't mercantilism. The other country is in debt because it is selling bonds and getting it's own domestic currency back. The mercantilist is getting interest in money not in it's own country and and it cannot pay it's people with it. It then buys more bonds with future exports and the interest. It is becoming harder to strip currency out of the market.

The exporting nation has been basically giving stuff away for paper. The importer has been getting the product of the labor. The deficit nations currency should start losing value but the surplus nation keeps trying to keep the currency propped up by buying it but cannot do this for ever. The country practicing mercantilism is starting to find it harder harder to buy up the other countries currency with it's own so debt is created, the importing nations is going into debt because it has been consuming more than it produces and social services cost has at to increase due to unemployment.

If the currency is never used it means you gave all that product away to a nation that is no longer producing.

Money is just a lubricant for trade. Money's real value is the things it will buy such as food clothing, stuff.

The trade deficit company in reality does not owe the trade surplus nation money but actually owes them stuff. The money eventually has to come home for any real value to come from it. To finally get the value out of it you have to spend it someday so the country that practiced mercantilism goes shopping to the nation that is no longer producing much. Not much there to buy but you find something. You start buying, the non producing nation starts experiencing job growth but cannot afford to buy what is is producing because of inflation. The cost of goods going back to the other sides is getting more and more expensive and is starting to suffer from unemployment. The former practicer of mercantilism is now losing jobs, and is buying things at a constantly higher price and the former laze sloths are now hard workers getting almost nothing. In the end the ex mercantilistic nation didn't get back as much as it sent out and has unemployment get a lot of infrastructure and is carrying debt. The other nations is carrying debt and has the working poor until the balance of payments is cleared.

Looking at it in a different way.

A guy from the UK buys something from Germany in the pre-Euro days, the conditions are the currency is all floating. The German gets a bunch of pounds. He only accepted them because they have value and the reason they have value is they are a coupon for UK production. The German can either sell the pounds to someone that wants to buy from the UK, buy something from the UK or sell the on the currency exchange or a currency broker. It doesn't really matter because in the end it will be someone that wants to buy something from the UK that gets it. The guy in the UK gets a car from Germany and someone from Germany gets a whole bunch of crumpets.

What really happened was German production was traded for 'UK production. If the sales get one sided and a trade deficit forms the currency shifts in value making stuff from the UK seems cheaper until the balance of payments is equalized again over time. If the currency floats and not intervention takes place the trade will be balanced.over time. Ricardian functions in a non pure form will start creating efficiencies based on comparative value rather than absolute value.

It does not have to be apparent that things are trying to self equalize, the shifts in relative currency value will push to keep trade balanced between the UK and Germany. There is no incentive for the Germans to send a car to the UK if there is not something in the marketplace in the UK that someone from Germany wants.

Now the German government starts to intervene in the process and encourage you to sell the pounds to them in exchange for marks then starts to sock them away. The UK does not get the sale on the other end and Germans don't get a product from the UK. The Germans are making stuff but not getting stuff in return. The German government starts getting a trade surplus by buying up pounds and the Germans have to produce even more to have product for themselves. The guys in the UK loses his job, the German government buys bonds with the pounds. The UK takes the pounds and gives it to social services and the unemployed UK guy buys more stuff from Germany. The German people are producing more than they consume so they have to work harder to have a good standard of living. The guy in the UK does not work at all and his country is going into debt. Germany has to find artificial ways to buy up pounds and goes into dept itself or it prints currency devaluing the mark.

German labor is getting ripped off by the guy in the UK that sets on his but collecting unemployment. The guy in the UK can't find a job and his country is selling bonds to gets it's own currency back. Germany is getting paid interest in pounds which they cannot pay their workers with so they have to borrow marks from the public (debt) or print more marks (inflation). It cannot go on forever.

Germany gets a great idea, I can't pay my workers with these pounds but I can pay the guy in the UK with them. Germany goes and builds a factory in the UK (sign that things are getting harder) or builds a factory in Africa (holding off the problem for awhile and keeps prices lower but create merchanitlism elsewhere). People talk about low wages in other countries but it is the prices that are doing it not the wages, if you are sending all of what you make out you can't buy anything. If you send out half of what you produce and bring nothing in you are low wage because you are working very hard and getting only half of it and someone gets the other half.

Now there is a guy in Germany out of a job, the German company is making profits in pounds but at least is paying his worker in pounds but needs marks to pay his debts. Germany experienced high growth but over the decades and built a problem. The UK was an under producers for a very long time. The correction is costly and the fact that both sides were not productive but only one side was means there was actually less to go around for everyone than there otherwise would be.

Mercantilism means one side makes more that it gets to keep and the other side becomes less productive with consequences out in the future. There are other forces at work at the same time but this is one of them.

Japan went though this cycle. When they started opening car plants in a high wage nation it was because they had dollars built up but lacked yen. Building in the USA was actually the cheaper option for them because of accumulated dollars and interest on the dollar.
 
Last edited:
If that return was made over fixed securities it either took a long time to do it and it will not have made much after inflation and taxes or it was a capital gain off of a favorable change in interest rates, that also has risk due to interest moving against you.

If you have a long term bond and interest rates rise your bond not sells less on the secondary market than you paid for it. If interest rates drop you can sell it for more than you paid.

If you carry it to term you have inflation risk.

If it was done via equity you were exposed to risk. Not always that easy. You are showing over a 400% financial return but if the time frame was long enough that changes everything. You don't get a 400% return in the short term without taking risk. If the time frame was long enough it was eroded.

I had a discussion about this with a poster in another thread, and was trying to keep the example simple here. But if you want to get more specific, investing in an something along the lines of an ETF like DVY or HDV would pay roughly 3% per year in dividends, while averaging a decent growth rate per year which is just a bit lower than S&P 500 index average (more than enough to keep up with inflation, taxes etc).

Of course the market has good years and bad years, but over the course of 50 years, you will likely have made far, far, far, more money from growth alone off of that $100M than the modest $438M figure in my example. And again, that's without hiring financial advisers that are payed to outperform the market.
 
I had a discussion about this with a poster in another thread, and was trying to keep the example simple here. But if you want to get more specific, investing in an something along the lines of an ETF like DVY or HDV would pay roughly 3% per year in dividends, while averaging a decent growth rate per year which is just a bit lower than S&P 500 index average (more than enough to keep up with inflation, taxes etc).

Of course the market has good years and bad years, but over the course of 50 years, you will likely have made far, far, far, more money from growth alone off of that $100M than the modest $438M figure in my example. And again, that's without hiring financial advisers that are payed to outperform the market.

Yes but stocks have a variety of risks. Specific rick, sector rick, and market risk. The portfolio diversifies out specific and sector risk but leaves market risk.

What does the dividend discount model look like right now?

A thing to consider is by holding the stocks you created a benefit. You created liquidity in the market place when you bought them. Though you didn't finance a new start up the liquidity in the market places existing encourages people to buy stock to support the growth or start up of a company that would be less likely to happen do to liquidity. Your initial purchase allowed someone to exist.

Something productive likely had to happen for the wealth to happen to begin with unless your a hit man or something else. By buying the stock right now you gave up current consumption of the full amount which is anti inflationary. you are rewarded by being able to consume more over and extended period of time but you are still carrying market risk. Just because there is market history does not mean the nation will hold up and there have been some massive dips in the market that meant it would be awhile before your net worth returns and someday it might not.

You could have consumed a whole bunch instead of buying the stock but you delayed your consumption, provided liquidity in the market place and is some people get what they want the government will take it away from you because it is seen as not fair so even that is a risk. If it is to be redistributed you would have been better off to have blown the money all at once, not make the market more efficient by creating the initial liquidity and contributed to short term inflation for those that are jealous of you so you helped in a way keep the poor from losing a bit of buying power and are taking on risk.

Congratulations for that liquidity you added by forgoing consumption to encourage capital expenditure in the future for others so they will help a new company come into existence and create some jobs.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top