Rewatched Khabib/Ragin' Al with a Conor matchup in mind

[D 1 Wrestler]

Did you keep in mind that Conor doesn't have Al's wrestling?

A level athlete Conor doesn't have community College walk on level wrestling with zero notable high school accomplishments ?

 

[acannxr]

Diaz didn’t weigh 170 when fighting Conor in the second fight. That’s preposterous. He’s clearly larger than he was vs MJ or Cerrone or any of his recent LW fights, both at weigh-ins and in-cage.

And yet:

He may have been a couple of pounds over 170 when he rematched McGregor, but that just means he weighed a lot less against Johnson.

Point being, which is what I said from the beginning: Diaz came into the camp and fight out of shape due to injury, and his cardio suffered as a result. McGregor has never fought the best version of Diaz (which was the Johnson fight).

 

[Dbreiden83080]

Did you keep in mind that Conor doesn't have Al's wrestling?

Yeah he doesn’t have that level of community college wrestling.

 

[Adjutant]

let me suggest something more on your level.

hahaha! pretty nice burn! I mean, you legitimately broke it down into logical, sensible paragraphs

 

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

Sherdog thinks al is Olympic level wrestler and Conor is grade school.

 

[IVovchanchyn]

Good breakdown. One thing to note is that even if Conor doesn't knock out Khabib with one shot, if his left hand cracks him, with the accuracy and precision that Conor has, I see Khabib going on auto-pilot like Eddie did, getting sloppy and recklessly closing the distance and getting cracked again.
55/45 Conor for me. Huge fan of both and can't wait.

That's the advantage of just being a pure MMA fan and not a casual diehard bandwagon jumping cockgoblin. You get to see mma in it's purest form. I want to see mcgregs k.o Khabib so bad just to see how crazy this marketing thing will skyrocket as much as I want to see Khabib pick up mcgregs and slam him to the ground and beat him into a pile of shit talking mush.

Either way someones the better of the two and I can't wait to see who it is. I think Khabib's chin is going to be the deciding factor because I don't see how Conor doesn't get a few cracks at it.

 

[Thepaintbucket]

Honestly I can't see this happening OP. Conor's style is all about control and finishing the fight. This is why he had so much trouble with Nate Diaz and even gassed in round 3.

Conor kinda reminds me of Overeem and Vitor Belfort. All three guys are at their best the first two rounds and then slowly loses stream. He can't just sit around and get beat up for 2 rounds before deciding to turn up the heat.

 

[Pakman]

My thoughts from rewatching are khabib is going to try to hulk smash Conor for the first two rounds, but honestly his finish rate isn't particularly good and a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.

Striking defense terrible, yet, least hit LW competing at the highest levels of the sport. Solid logic bRo.

Conor has precisely 2 rounds to end it, anything after and he’s toast. Guy doesn’t have the gas tank to go 5 with Khabib.

 

[JKS]

I doubt Khabib gets the finish. Conors cardio is better than stated on this hater forum. He came back and won the 4th against Diaz. In the 5th they were both tired as fuck...does Diaz cardio suck?

I think Khabib should not ever stand with Conor or try to punch him. Ever. Khabib needs to dive for the TD and thats it.

My prediction is Conor wins via second round TKO in a fight that looks like the Alvarez fight or 4th-5th round TKO from a second wind.

So you're thinking Conor can get the finish 4th or 5th round?? Do elaborate please.....

 

[Mixedfights]

Because he has shown to have a second wind. He won the 4th against Diaz and had a good late round showing vs Mayweather in that hands only bs. I think training for the boxing bs fight on top of him gassing in his first UFC loss has done everything to help his cardio.

 

[lsa]

Lol, TS watches every fight with Conor on his mind

and touches him self.

 

[legedema]

imo Conor will have good cardio, the only issue might be for him that if Khabib takes him down early in the 1st round he might issues with his cardio for trying to stand up.
if you re-watch the Diaz fight, Conor looked like it was over after the 3rd round but he cam back very strond.
but again this is different now,Nate is not a grappler,he is weak in that area.
agree that he is a master in BJJ but that doesnt mean he can take anyone down.

all of them are good when they are comforable, Conor is a striker but if it goes to the ground and stays there for a long time he will have big issues with his cardio.lets also not forget the GnP.

Anyway,this is a good fight to see who is better. Conor is a master of timing and that left hand and Khabib is a master of grappling.
imo,Khabib will toy with Conor but this is a fight and anything can happen

 

[Cat Biscuits]

Did you keep in mind that Conor doesn't have Al's wrestling?

And that he doesn't have Al's cardio either? Al is tough as shit regardless of what Conor fans want to say about him.

a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.

You act like Khabib will get tired, but I don't think you understand that Khabib will take top control and it will be 10x more taxing on Conor's cardio getting beat on the bottom than it would be if the entire fight was to remain standing. Even if Khabib is tired by round 3, Conor will be infinitely more tired after the beating he'll take on the bottom.

Conor could barely hold himself up in the 2nd Diaz fight and was running away after being in control of the fight up until that point.

Khabib has made people (with much better cardio than Conor) look defeated after a couple of rounds. I'd say Conor's cardio is his biggest weakness, and will ultimately fail him if he can't produce the early KO.

The only way Conor has enough cardio to produce a KO in the 3rd round is if the fight never hits the ground in those 3 rounds...

 

[fortheo]

Yup pretty much. My biggest thought is Khabib isn't NEARLY as strong if people just play guard and don't work all round to standing up. Why waste 4 minutes against the cage trying to stand up when you could at least throw a couple of elbows and a sub attempt. You may still lose the round, but you won't gas as hard and you will make Khabib work harder.

I think they try to get up because they don't like getting punched and or smothered. Just a guess.

 

[Sinthesized]

Round 1
First 20 seconds and Khabib backs up to the cage and Al hits him with a nice straight right clean. Not particularly hard since Al's stance is low and preparing for takedown shots. Khabib throws a bit wild and barely moves out of the way of a decent hook, Khabib then does a little bit of running to reset.

Al backs off and Khabib shoots a low single and grabs it tight and gets the takedown. Al gives up his back, but is able to scramble and get to his feet on the fence. I don't think Conor would be able to recover from giving up his back like that. He can't let that happen.

From here the round is basically a series of Al getting taken down and getting up against the cage, not a lot of damage. Khabib is literally a master of using the cage against his opponent. He knows exactly how to apply pressure so they have to rely on the cage to stay on their feet, which completely let him move around their side and back. The last 20 second Al is finally able to square up against the cage and it's fairly even.
I'm going to steal this from a audio segment I heard from Eddie Bravo, but if Conor goes to the ground his best chance isn't to get to his feet, it's to square up and fight and play guard. Khabib's style is made to have you trying to get up, HE WILL WIN THIS BATTLE. You need to fight him and get him off his game and make him WORK for what he wants to do. It will tire him out. Nothing Al did in the first round tired Khabib at all.

Round 2
They come out striking. Khabib keeps his hands up for the first 15 seconds, but then they drop to his waist. He does plant his right hand to his head anytime he throws with his left. They both pretty much suck with the hands. Khabib again dives for a super low single almost gets it and pushes Al against the cage. Not sure Conor would have snaked out if Khabib grabbed that ankle.

Khabib gets a beautiful single against the cage and rides Al for like two minutes, nothing really happening until Al gives up his back. Khabib then takes his back from the top and tries for a RNC, but doesn't get it. Khabib's arms look like they are pumping tons of blood and I wouldn't be surprised if his arms are gassed. If he were fresh I think he would finish that choke. Al can't get Khabib off his back for the rest of the round

Round 3
Again Khabib keeps his hands in high guard until 4:45 like clockwork he drops them to his waist. Khabib's left hand is at his leg. This could be a HUGE opening for Conor as he is a southpaw, but I would have to imagine his camp has him keeping that left hand high. But if his left hand is high it raises a few questions. How would that affect his ability to shoot and grab, both his low single attempts are pretty much his nosediving to the ground and grabbing with his left arm. How long into a 5 round fight will he remember to keep that left hand high?

1 minute into 3rd round and both of Khabib's hands are straight down. He is obviously tired.
He is peppering Al with jabs from his waist. Al is pretty much gassed. Khabib shoots a failed low single. Obviously the shot for Conor to watch for.
Khabib keeps throwing a few jabs and Al gets a decent shot in once or twice.

Khabib switches to south paw and actually looks invigorated from it. He's keeping his guard up and looks quicker and a bit cleaner. lol I forgot how much he talks.
Both Khabib and Al basically took the round off to recover. Khabib looked much fresher at the end of the round than the beginning. Makes me wonder, even if Khabib does take Conor down for the first two rounds could he keep doing it again for a 3rd and obviously standing is Conor's realm so it really doesn't give Khabib a spot to recover at the start of a new round.

Round 4
If Khabib fights for every 1 minute against Conor like he did this round he will get beat up. All he did was throw jabs from his waist and get hit with so so overhand rights from Al. He failed another low single. I think he is very tired.

Round 5
Before the round Khabib's corner calls for him to finish Al.
Khabib immediately shoots from the middle of the cage and it's honestly a fairly weak try. Very little penetration and zero follow through. Khabib doesn't "look" gassed, but all of his actions seem half-assed at this point.

Al is pretty much throwing at will, not landing much because it's all arm punches. Khabib is literally just leaning back and taking a few steps back. Not great defensive form from Khabib.
Khabib shoots for a double against the cage and is very easily shrugged off.
Khabib starts throwing wild as fuck and gets Al to back up. Khabib secures double under body lock and quickly takes Al down. Goes for the back doesn't get it and starts riding against the cage. Riding and back takes for the rest of the round.


TLDR
My thoughts from rewatching are khabib is going to try to hulk smash Conor for the first two rounds, but honestly his finish rate isn't particularly good and a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.

His striking defense is statistically one of the highest in the UFC. Just because it's ugly and he makes mistake, that doesn't mean he gets hit often. Because he doesn't.

 

[mikesparrow]

You don't have to have a great guard game to neutralize someone in your guard. Literally everyone tries to stand up immediately against the cage when they fight Khabib. IMO it's much better to throw a couple of elbows and try to lock him down and get a stand up, which he DOES NOT WANT. He will fight tooth and nail to not get stood up, but it's much easier to prevent that from guard than it is with your shoulder on the cage halfway up and defenseless against another takedown.

It doesn't work like that against Khabib. The reason why they don't strike from the bottom is because Khabib doesn't give them any room. He push down on them while having thier limbs locked. He is a master of controling opponents limbs and is always aware where they are. When you down, the last thing you want is to have your head on the floor to have your brain to absorb every hit. It's also harder to strike with your head on the floor, because your shoulders are also on the floor. Khabib is not exactly a nice warm blanket to have on top of you. He is non stop punishing guys and that is the reason they all want to get out of there. While Khabib's style is tiring, it's way more tiring the opponent beneath him.

 

[elfeliz]

thank god the fight is only two weeks away we will finally put this to rest soon. tired of the same discussions over and over

 

[Ruthfella]

Conor would be dead if the fight will take longer then 10 mins.

 

[Phisher]

Raging realtor hadn’t fought in quite some time before he fought khabib

He's take a year off. Conor has taken two.

 

[Phisher]

Because he has shown to have a second wind. He won the 4th against Diaz and had a good late round showing vs Mayweather in that hands only bs. I think training for the boxing bs fight on top of him gassing in his first UFC loss has done everything to help his cardio.

His fourth round comeback is overrated. Both guys were tired and sloppy, and Diaz was hurt badly from the first two rounds.

Conor was literally turning his back and strolling away with his hands on his hips to reset in the center of the cage while sucking in air. If Diaz had anything whatsoever in the tank, he would have assraped Conor the first time that he did instead of pointing at him and pretending to laugh.