Rewatched Khabib/Ragin' Al with a Conor matchup in mind

[Couch Ninja]

Yup pretty much. My biggest thought is Khabib isn't NEARLY as strong if people just play guard and don't work all round to standing up. Why waste 4 minutes against the cage trying to stand up when you could at least throw a couple of elbows and a sub attempt.

I agree, but Conor's guard game is probably pretty sucky. I can see him trying in vain to stand up and tire out

 

[VinceArch]

No not even close. The whole round I talked about how Khabib was destroying Al on the ground.

And still have Conor winning. I hope I'm on here when you tell us how Conor KO's Floyd in a rematch.

 

[Deleted member 502383]

Did you keep in mind that Conor doesn't have Al's wrestling?

Did you keep in mind that Eddie would clinch wrestle Al in his sleep and Conor dealt with that clinch with relative ease?

There's a huge difference between a 2 weight champion and a guy outside the top 10 who works a day job.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

I agree, but Conor's guard game is probably pretty sucky. I can see him trying in vain to stand up and tire out

You don't have to have a great guard game to neutralize someone in your guard. Literally everyone tries to stand up immediately against the cage when they fight Khabib. IMO it's much better to throw a couple of elbows and try to lock him down and get a stand up, which he DOES NOT WANT. He will fight tooth and nail to not get stood up, but it's much easier to prevent that from guard than it is with your shoulder on the cage halfway up and defenseless against another takedown.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

And still have Conor winning. I hope I'm on here when you tell us how Conor KO's Floyd in a rematch.

So basically you're upset I like Conor winning lol.

 

[Nightwish]

Round 1
First 20 seconds and Khabib backs up to the cage and Al hits him with a nice straight right clean

Confirmed: Khabib gets KOed in 20 seconds.

 

[VinceArch]

So basically you're upset I like Conor winning lol.

It's more humorous than anything lol.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

It's more humorous than anything lol.

The odds are nearly 50/50.

 

[snackgod]

Round 1
First 20 seconds and Khabib backs up to the cage and Al hits him with a nice straight right clean. Not particularly hard since Al's stance is low and preparing for takedown shots. Khabib throws a bit wild and barely moves out of the way of a decent hook, Khabib then does a little bit of running to reset.

Al backs off and Khabib shoots a low single and grabs it tight and gets the takedown. Al gives up his back, but is able to scramble and get to his feet on the fence. I don't think Conor would be able to recover from giving up his back like that. He can't let that happen.

From here the round is basically a series of Al getting taken down and getting up against the cage, not a lot of damage. Khabib is literally a master of using the cage against his opponent. He knows exactly how to apply pressure so they have to rely on the cage to stay on their feet, which completely let him move around their side and back. The last 20 second Al is finally able to square up against the cage and it's fairly even.
I'm going to steal this from a audio segment I heard from Eddie Bravo, but if Conor goes to the ground his best chance isn't to get to his feet, it's to square up and fight and play guard. Khabib's style is made to have you trying to get up, HE WILL WIN THIS BATTLE. You need to fight him and get him off his game and make him WORK for what he wants to do. It will tire him out. Nothing Al did in the first round tired Khabib at all.

Round 2
They come out striking. Khabib keeps his hands up for the first 15 seconds, but then they drop to his waist. He does plant his right hand to his head anytime he throws with his left. They both pretty much suck with the hands. Khabib again dives for a super low single almost gets it and pushes Al against the cage. Not sure Conor would have snaked out if Khabib grabbed that ankle.

Khabib gets a beautiful single against the cage and rides Al for like two minutes, nothing really happening until Al gives up his back. Khabib then takes his back from the top and tries for a RNC, but doesn't get it. Khabib's arms look like they are pumping tons of blood and I wouldn't be surprised if his arms are gassed. If he were fresh I think he would finish that choke. Al can't get Khabib off his back for the rest of the round

Round 3
Again Khabib keeps his hands in high guard until 4:45 like clockwork he drops them to his waist. Khabib's left hand is at his leg. This could be a HUGE opening for Conor as he is a southpaw, but I would have to imagine his camp has him keeping that left hand high. But if his left hand is high it raises a few questions. How would that affect his ability to shoot and grab, both his low single attempts are pretty much his nosediving to the ground and grabbing with his left arm. How long into a 5 round fight will he remember to keep that left hand high?

1 minute into 3rd round and both of Khabib's hands are straight down. He is obviously tired.
He is peppering Al with jabs from his waist. Al is pretty much gassed. Khabib shoots a failed low single. Obviously the shot for Conor to watch for.
Khabib keeps throwing a few jabs and Al gets a decent shot in once or twice.

Khabib switches to south paw and actually looks invigorated from it. He's keeping his guard up and looks quicker and a bit cleaner. lol I forgot how much he talks.
Both Khabib and Al basically took the round off to recover. Khabib looked much fresher at the end of the round than the beginning. Makes me wonder, even if Khabib does take Conor down for the first two rounds could he keep doing it again for a 3rd and obviously standing is Conor's realm so it really doesn't give Khabib a spot to recover at the start of a new round.

Round 4
If Khabib fights for every 1 minute against Conor like he did this round he will get beat up. All he did was throw jabs from his waist and get hit with so so overhand rights from Al. He failed another low single. I think he is very tired.

Round 5
Before the round Khabib's corner calls for him to finish Al.
Khabib immediately shoots from the middle of the cage and it's honestly a fairly weak try. Very little penetration and zero follow through. Khabib doesn't "look" gassed, but all of his actions seem half-assed at this point.

Al is pretty much throwing at will, not landing much because it's all arm punches. Khabib is literally just leaning back and taking a few steps back. Not great defensive form from Khabib.
Khabib shoots for a double against the cage and is very easily shrugged off.
Khabib starts throwing wild as fuck and gets Al to back up. Khabib secures double under body lock and quickly takes Al down. Goes for the back doesn't get it and starts riding against the cage. Riding and back takes for the rest of the round.


TLDR
My thoughts from rewatching are khabib is going to try to hulk smash Conor for the first two rounds, but honestly his finish rate isn't particularly good and a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.

50-43 says a different story

 

[Couch Ninja]

You don't have to have a great guard game to neutralize someone in your guard. Literally everyone tries to stand up immediately against the cage when they fight Khabib. IMO it's much better to throw a couple of elbows and try to lock him down and get a stand up, which he DOES NOT WANT. He will fight tooth and nail to not get stood up, but it's much easier to prevent that from guard than it is with your shoulder on the cage halfway up and defenseless against another takedown.

I still agree with you. You need to go talk to Conor, not me, hombre

 

[Headkicktoleg]

50-43 says a different story

I didn't give a score and I never had Al winning any round.

 

[snackgod]

I didn't give a score and I never had Al winning any round.

a tried conor lost to nate diaz.

I just don't understand how peoplecall khabib a bum cause he didn't finish al on 24 hour notice and that why they see conor as the true champ still

 

[acannxr]

He came back and won the 4th against Diaz. In the 5th they were both tired as fuck...does Diaz cardio suck?

I actually scored the 4th round (and the fight itself) a draw.

Diaz' cardio wasn't up to par due to having an injured rib/knee in camp and in the fight; he wasn't in shape and it showed in his appearance.

Johnson fight:

McGregor 2:

 

[Headkicktoleg]

a tried conor lost to nate diaz.

I just don't understand how peoplecall khabib a bum cause he didn't finish al on 24 hour notice and that why they see conor as the true champ still

So in round 3 Khabib and Al basically took the round off. Khabib had both hand at his waist and threw a jab like every 10 or 15 seconds. This would be Conor opportunity to do serious damage. He dove for a really weak low single and didn't even really commit, he was very gassed. Conor very gassed on the feet is still a lot better than Khabib very gassed on the feet just like khabib very gassed on the ground would be a lot better than Conor very gassed on the ground.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

I actually scored the 4th round (and the fight itself) a draw.

Diaz' cardio wasn't up to par due to having an injured rib/knee in camp and in the fight; he wasn't in shape and it showed in his appearance.

Johnson fight:

McGregor 2:

15 lbs of water...

 

[VinceArch]

The odds are nearly 50/50.

Very true. The nut huggers of Khabib and Conor are large.

 

[KevinThaKilla]

It was a very fair breakdown. Unfortunately it's a bit too much like mma math for my liking. Al was a short notice opponent with completely different skill-set than Conor. Now if one were to go though Khabib fights and find reoccurring instances of exploitable mistakes or tells that could be more value in predicting possible outcomes.

I bring up "tells" because they can be hugely valuable. For instsnce, I recall Reshad Evans crediting his win over Chuck Liddell to a tell Kieth Jardine pointed out to him. Something Chuck would always do just prior to trying to unload a haymaker...knowing this allowed Shad to counter and ktfo.

 

[Chagaev]

Round 1
First 20 seconds and Khabib backs up to the cage and Al hits him with a nice straight right clean. Not particularly hard since Al's stance is low and preparing for takedown shots. Khabib throws a bit wild and barely moves out of the way of a decent hook, Khabib then does a little bit of running to reset.

Al backs off and Khabib shoots a low single and grabs it tight and gets the takedown. Al gives up his back, but is able to scramble and get to his feet on the fence. I don't think Conor would be able to recover from giving up his back like that. He can't let that happen.

From here the round is basically a series of Al getting taken down and getting up against the cage, not a lot of damage. Khabib is literally a master of using the cage against his opponent. He knows exactly how to apply pressure so they have to rely on the cage to stay on their feet, which completely let him move around their side and back. The last 20 second Al is finally able to square up against the cage and it's fairly even.
I'm going to steal this from a audio segment I heard from Eddie Bravo, but if Conor goes to the ground his best chance isn't to get to his feet, it's to square up and fight and play guard. Khabib's style is made to have you trying to get up, HE WILL WIN THIS BATTLE. You need to fight him and get him off his game and make him WORK for what he wants to do. It will tire him out. Nothing Al did in the first round tired Khabib at all.

Round 2
They come out striking. Khabib keeps his hands up for the first 15 seconds, but then they drop to his waist. He does plant his right hand to his head anytime he throws with his left. They both pretty much suck with the hands. Khabib again dives for a super low single almost gets it and pushes Al against the cage. Not sure Conor would have snaked out if Khabib grabbed that ankle.

Khabib gets a beautiful single against the cage and rides Al for like two minutes, nothing really happening until Al gives up his back. Khabib then takes his back from the top and tries for a RNC, but doesn't get it. Khabib's arms look like they are pumping tons of blood and I wouldn't be surprised if his arms are gassed. If he were fresh I think he would finish that choke. Al can't get Khabib off his back for the rest of the round

Round 3
Again Khabib keeps his hands in high guard until 4:45 like clockwork he drops them to his waist. Khabib's left hand is at his leg. This could be a HUGE opening for Conor as he is a southpaw, but I would have to imagine his camp has him keeping that left hand high. But if his left hand is high it raises a few questions. How would that affect his ability to shoot and grab, both his low single attempts are pretty much his nosediving to the ground and grabbing with his left arm. How long into a 5 round fight will he remember to keep that left hand high?

1 minute into 3rd round and both of Khabib's hands are straight down. He is obviously tired.
He is peppering Al with jabs from his waist. Al is pretty much gassed. Khabib shoots a failed low single. Obviously the shot for Conor to watch for.
Khabib keeps throwing a few jabs and Al gets a decent shot in once or twice.

Khabib switches to south paw and actually looks invigorated from it. He's keeping his guard up and looks quicker and a bit cleaner. lol I forgot how much he talks.
Both Khabib and Al basically took the round off to recover. Khabib looked much fresher at the end of the round than the beginning. Makes me wonder, even if Khabib does take Conor down for the first two rounds could he keep doing it again for a 3rd and obviously standing is Conor's realm so it really doesn't give Khabib a spot to recover at the start of a new round.

Round 4
If Khabib fights for every 1 minute against Conor like he did this round he will get beat up. All he did was throw jabs from his waist and get hit with so so overhand rights from Al. He failed another low single. I think he is very tired.

Round 5
Before the round Khabib's corner calls for him to finish Al.
Khabib immediately shoots from the middle of the cage and it's honestly a fairly weak try. Very little penetration and zero follow through. Khabib doesn't "look" gassed, but all of his actions seem half-assed at this point.

Al is pretty much throwing at will, not landing much because it's all arm punches. Khabib is literally just leaning back and taking a few steps back. Not great defensive form from Khabib.
Khabib shoots for a double against the cage and is very easily shrugged off.
Khabib starts throwing wild as fuck and gets Al to back up. Khabib secures double under body lock and quickly takes Al down. Goes for the back doesn't get it and starts riding against the cage. Riding and back takes for the rest of the round.


TLDR
My thoughts from rewatching are khabib is going to try to hulk smash Conor for the first two rounds, but honestly his finish rate isn't particularly good and a tired Conor will still KO a tired Khabib if he survives past round 2 due to Khabib's striking offense and defense being terrible, especially when tired.

Thanks for the effort, man.

You forgot to comment on Khabib's kicking game:

 

[acannxr]

15 lbs of water...

Uhh, no.

 

[Final Say]

Conor's wrestling and grappling absolutely sucks compared to Al.

I disagree