Response to the 2-1 betting odds for Machida/Weidman

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Tseren**, May 23, 2014.

  1. Tseren**

    Tseren** *Bant Banned

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    For the TL/DR crowd:

    In my opinion, Machida has advantages in stamina, in the stand-up, and in experience, that will be instrumental in a narrow but uncontestable UD victory against Weidman.
    __________________
    I'm leaning towards Machida, but I'm not sure if my analysis is pure from emotional bias or not.

    Weidman has looked incredible in securing 2 back-to-back finishes against the UFC GOAT, managing to get the better of a fighter some consider to be the greatest striker in MMA history at his own game, as well as in the wrestling and grappling departments.

    He effortlessly steamrolled Munoz, dominating him in the stand-up and the wrestling game.

    If we are to form conclusions from Weidman's last 3 performances in the Octagon, it would be understandable for some to regard him as an excellent, well-rounded champion with an impressive grappling toolkit and stand-up skills that are up to par with Machida's arsenal, if not superior.

    The only possible weakness one could justifiably suspect Weidman to have is poor stamina.

    He appeared to have lowered his output against Maia in a 3 round fight and didn't look as spectacular against Anderson in two second-rounds.

    If he does possess this weakness, it would be a very strong disadvantage against a title-challenger believed to be well-conditioned and is battle-tested in two 25-minute fights against very formidable opponents.

    It is my baseless suspicion that Weidman's conditioning is somewhere between championship-quality and that of what is often suspected by some of his most vocal skeptics.

    If this is true, then Weidman will have a serious disadvantage against a former champion proven to have elite-level cardiovascular conditioning as recently as his last fight.

    An assessment of skill possessed by both fighters indicates that Weidman is far superior, but both fighters may possess a similar level of athleticism beyond stamina considerations.

    Machida's defensive wrestling is respectable, but penetrable considering his performances against Jones, Davis, and Rampage.

    If Weidman scores at least 1 takedown against Machida (very likely) with enough time left in the round, the challenger would be in peril if we are to consider the champion's impressive grappling talent.

    Weidman has effortlessly pounded through Anderson Silva's defensive guard in two fights (however, it should be noted that this has been accomplished before against Anderson) and looked competent against Demian Maia (who as we know, is a very distinguished and accomplished jiu-jitsu black belt).

    Although Machida's wrestling is sound, his overall grappling game is suspect.

    Machida has been swept by Mousasi, choked out by Jones, forced out of a dominant position by Shogun's threatening leg-lock attempts, and caught in a triangle choke by Tito Ortiz (who only lost it out of what seemed to be a lack of lack of will-power).

    Weidman has a very dangerous top-game and poses a very serious threat to Machida in any type of positional battle on the ground.

    It's also possible that Weidman is the superior striker, if we are to trust the most optimistic expectations one could hold for him as an elite fighter from his performances against Anderson beyond suspected absences of 'flukes' or favorable circumstances.

    But if Machida is the superior striker (more likely), even by a slight margin, then he could win by following a strong game-plan based on distance-control and point-striking to take advantage of (supposedly) superior conditioning and greater experience.

    I believe that this scenario is most likely in their upcoming title-fight- that if Machida follows a smart game-plan, he will beat Chris Weidman via UD.

    Machida's unique style is puzzling even for the most experienced fighters in MMA (as Rampage and Couture could potentially attest to).

    Even Mousasi was almost overwhelmed by Machida's karate-style kickboxing despite having an impressive K-1 run.

    With these considerations noted, what are we to think of Chis Weidman's chances?

    Weidman has yet to be tested in a 5-round match. He is generally inexperienced despite being champion of the 185 lb. division and has already suffered several serious injuries.

    There is also a very valid suspicion that his 2 victories against Anderson were given way by what could have been a favorable (for Weidman) point of the legend's pivotal decline and that the "All-American" is undeserving of his most encouraging praises.

    If I was forced to bet $100 on the fight, I would be eager to wager on Machida for a potential $200 return.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2014
  2. Neitzsche

    Neitzsche Purple Belt

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    I'm a fan of Weidman I just don't see how he wins this fight, 2:1 odds...hmm..intriguing.
     
  3. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    Weidman wins Machida easier than Jones did, just watch.
     
  4. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    why is your TLDR statement a youtube video? shouldve summarized what you said instead.

    anyways, at those odds im definitely putting money down on machida. imo, this fight is 50/50, can go either way.
     
  5. Da Speeit

    Da Speeit Plutonium Belt Platinum Member

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    Tl;dr
    "i like machida why dont you uhghghhkwh"
     
  6. Tseren**

    Tseren** *Bant Banned

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    Suggestion accepted.
     
  7. Jamoke

    Jamoke Banned Banned

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    Machida is gonna mercy kill him. :/
     
  8. BMoseley INC

    BMoseley INC Yellow Belt

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    Ya I will be doing a small parlay that includes a Machida victory. He's going to beat wiedman up.
     
  9. MajJ

    MajJ Banned Banned

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    this is 50/50 imo
    if Weedman beats lyoto it'll open eyes as to how good he really is.. if lyoto wins he goes down in UFC history as a legend
     
  10. MajJ

    MajJ Banned Banned

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    wooooo orange belt
     
  11. Viking Power

    Viking Power Black Belt

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    Each sentence doesn't need to be its own paragraph.

    I think Machida has what it takes to win. Will he be able to overcome the mental obstacle of facing the guy who beat Anderson twice?
     
  12. Emjay

    Emjay And again and again and again and ag.. zzzzzzzz

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    Sooooooo Weidman is going to gas from chasing Machida?
     
  13. Jermei

    Jermei Steel Belt Platinum Member

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    Welcome to the Orange Order.
     
  14. vry pwrful

    vry pwrful Green Belt

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    Am I the only one who thinks Machida has nothing for the Chris?
     
  15. 3v3ryth1ng**

    3v3ryth1ng** ______________________

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    Weidman is a good game planner. He has one legit win against Anderson, and the rest of his wins don't say much about how he'll do against machida.

    Machida is perhaps one the strongest skill-wise. His natural handle on martial arts reduces his need for a game plan. However, he can simply be outworked at times, especially by people with good top control. That would be Weidman's game. Lyoto has 1-punch KO power too though, and that should keep Weidman from getting too brazen.

    If Weidman wants to win, he should follow Rampage and Davis and try to hump a decision. Lyoto is no showboater- engage with him, expect to get hit.
     
  16. ostlerrage

    ostlerrage Black Belt

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    started laughing at very possible weidman is the superior striker. His strikes are slow, looping and telegraphed. He won't hit machida once unless from the clinch or gnp.
     
  17. Yolandabecool**

    Yolandabecool** Brown Belt

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    If Weidman doesn't stop the fight in the first he will lose. I think there is a strong chance that MAY happen, but outside that initial period I can't see anyway Weidman win's the bout.

    Weidman looked nothing like the first round version of himself in both 2nd rounds of the Anderson fights. Machida will do what Anderson didn't. He'll survive the first, take control in the second & either finish in the third or grind out an easy decision.

    The reason I say knockout [And I know fighters need unshakable confidence to perform at their peak] is that from every Weidman interview I've seen it appears as though he is deluded in his stand-up abilities. He's relatively new to the fight game & will be lost when he inevitably starts to get steamrolled after the second.
     
  18. Magog9

    Magog9 White Belt

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    in other words your a camel dogger.

    He gave a valid points and you were to much of a 4 chaner to respond.

    and naturally knowing the mods here i'll get the warning for calling you a douche
    and you'll get nothing.
     
  19. Palooka

    Palooka Green Belt

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    Not alone
     
  20. Hawkman3111

    Hawkman3111 Yellow Belt

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    Machida has nothing for The Chris
     

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