Opinion Realistic timeline to end shutdowns and lessons from SARS

[Parmenides]

If looking at SARS it appears the shutdowns may have to last longer than expected..Canada example also shows secondary outbreaks are likely..any guesses?

http://sarsreference.com/sarsref/timeline.htm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92478/

Apparently only highly restrictive measures (rural isolation of cases etc) are effective in fully controlling the spread..yet we are nowhere near those hence the continued growth

The second article hails WHO's response and global cooperative efforts as key in containing SARS pandemic..its perpexing gvmt's failed so miserably this time despite SARS success and with better data/IT systems in place

Main lessons were aggressive contact tracing of people the infected were around so they can be quarantined and monitored and..most importantly..immediate travel restrictions from and to the outbreak area

Also not sure if the preventive measures WHO suggested ever got implemented (global surveillance system etc)

 

[The XL]

Say bye bye to all of your rights and freedoms

 

[MicroBrew]

No idea on timeline, but do not think the lock-downs should be lifted yet. If it is lifted now, infected cases will skyrocket and all the time and effort to flaten the curve would be for nothing. Hospitals are coping for the moment, only because the social distancing and lock-downs have kept people at home and away from each other.

 

[Not A Theist]

The level of hysteria is different. The media wasn't giving a pulpit to everyone with a doomsday story for SARS and the H1N1 incident and whatnot. From the beginning this has been political in a way neither of those were, with it being about what was said, how it was said, and aimed to point out every mistake made, and generally following a narrative that has fanned flames of fear. Social media doesn't help either. I don't think we can apply previous sickness trajectories when the way it is presented is radically different.

 

[monster zero]

All I know is my age group has a 99.8% chance of survival, and that big business got 4 trillion in tax payer dollars.

 

[Cuauhtemoc]

SARS was not very infectious. That's more akin to the Spanish Flu.

 

[trac209]

Trudeau says just 18-22 months and he will give us all a cookie...

 

[nac386]

H1N1 killed 12,469 people in the United States over the course of a year.
SARS killed 0 people in the USA.

Covid19 has killed between 16,500 and 18,500 in the United States in the last 40 days.

 

[Parmenides]

Say bye bye to all of your rights and freedoms

Yes it will have to get more not less restrictive unless we shoot for herd immunity due to economic collapse

Michigan already banning home to home travel..

 

[Parmenides]

H1N1 killed 12,469 people in the United States over the course of a year.
SARS killed 0 people in the USA.

Covid19 has killed between 16,500 and 18,500 in the United States in the last 40 days.

Yes so the gvmt has to shut down shit unless they want millions of deaths at their hands..

 

[KONG-D'SNT-TAP]

It’s been said many times until a vaccine is created (or the USA wakes up and takes measures like South Korea) there will be no opening anything, no matter what doofus trump says.

if you open too quickly this will keep happening over and over, which over time would be even worse for the economy and front line workers and essential workers

 

[genecop]

 

[Graves The Elder]

June 1st-business as usual
bet on it.
(*with a caveat)

 

[trac209]

June 1st-business as usual
bet on it.
(*with a caveat)

Quarantine the old or immune challenged and let the rest of us get on with our lives enough is enough. We ain’t doing this for 18 months while we wait on a vaccine ..

 

[Graves The Elder]

seal off the hot spots in the country and free the rest of us

 

[KONG-D'SNT-TAP]

Yeah watch this crazy person doctor with 590
Views that you keep spam posting across the boards.

 

[KONG-D'SNT-TAP]

seal off the hot spots in the country and free the rest of us

It’s funny you still don’t get how this works after weeks. It’s funnier you keep repeating the same shit all over this site. Why? Wouldn’t it be easier to just accept the truth instead of your utter nonsense.

 

[Graves The Elder]

It’s funny you still don’t get how this works after weeks. It’s funnier you keep repeating the same shit all over this site. Why? Wouldn’t it be easier to just accept the truth instead of your utter nonsense.

lol what are you even talking about, looney?
I've never even posted anything about this.
You must be confused (uh yea) about who I am.
Calm yourself with a coffee enema or something.
Don't quote me again.

 

[KONG-D'SNT-TAP]

lol what are you even talking about, looney?
I've never even posted anything about this.
You must be confused (uh yea) about who I am.
Calm yourself with a coffee enema or something.
Don't quote me again.

You keep talking about opening parts of the country. You simply can’t do that with thousands walking around asymptomatic with something this contagious.

You still don’t get how this works. You’re old tho so maybe you have some type of early dementia setting in.

 

[Oliver Clothesoff]

Every day we get more information. We'll have to see where we are at at the end of the month. If things continue to improve I could see letting certain people in certain states go back to work in limited fashion. Maybe some tier 2 essential services and people with the anitbodies. Continue to practice social distancing in the workplace, maybe keep the oldest folks at home for a while longer... Take it slow, see how it pans out and go from there.