So basically: Conor has a puncher's chance ...but that is one hell of a punch to survive over the first two rounds or so.
Firas is a great analyst and obviously there is no allegiance of any kind at play here that may cloud his judgement. It's very nice of him to share his insight with the fans.
Actually, his expected outcome for this fight is very close to how I predicted the fight with Aldo would go: Conor extremely dangerous early but Aldo gaining a sizeable advantage after 2 rounds. I had it 70/30 for Aldo, all things considered.
As for this fight: I am a little surprised by how confident Firas is in RDA taking over the fight "after 7 minutes" as he says.
My reason in the Aldo fight was based on Conor cutting so much weight and signs of him fading around that mark in the Holloway and Mendes fights (yes, you could clearly see him slow). At LW though, I expect this to change significantly; Conor will make the cut comfortably and is a VERY relaxed fighter, which to me indicates excellent cardio.
What I'm guessing Firas is banking on, is that RDA is physically stronger than anyone Conor has fought and is an expert at breaking opponents with both his kicks and his clinch/ground game. He also repeatedly underlined how them both being southpaws should allow RDA to exploit Conor's stance in ways that even Aldo may not have been able to.
One thing that I don't really agree with him on though is that the straight counter to a low has the advantage early, even if he was clearly saying 'in general'.
Everything depends on the quality of the kicker's timing and how much he commits to every low kick; if your technique/timing are mediocre, you get countered, if you throw tentatively, you get countered ...but if you time your kicks correctly, have the correct defensive positioning/posture and put heat into the low kick, your chances of getting countered by a punch are very low. See guys like Gevorg Petrosyan and Sittichai. (Sure, RDA has nowhere near their kicking ability but Conor has nowhere near a seasoned Thai boxer's ability to to deal with such kicks.)
Also, I don't think that RDA needs to attack the outside of the leg early in the fight. I think that attacking the body and even kicking high are even safer because these attacks cannot just be walked through and turned into a counter - Conor would have to block or risk getting badly hurt. Same goes for the inside low kick. You cannot counter that effectively if it lands hard because your leg will buckle under the impact.
Anyway, his overall analysis is spot on IMO. We don't really know how RDA's kicking technique will match up against Conor's poisonous left and we don't know the details of his gameplan or how disciplined he will be about executing it. 50/50 in the early going is sensible.
