For those that didn't watch Rashad's recent discussion with Rogan, I'll try to paraphrase what I thought was an extremely accurate point he made about Jon's past two performances.
Essentially he said that the biggest difference between 32 yo Jon and 25 yo Jon is how his mentality has changed from one that was offensive to one that's currently defensive. Back then, Jon didn't give af. Still way behind GSP and Silva in the goat conversation, he wasn't afraid of losing, and subsequently felt free to fully utilize his amazing skill set. Utter domination was the result. In the past eleven months, what we've seen is a guy who has realized his octagon mortality, and facing two power punchers, has been much more weary. Ironically, with the exception of Gus 1, this newfound weariness has brought Jon closer to defeat than he has ever been. On the contrary, we saw versions of Santos and Reyes whose mindsets were more akin to that of a younger Jon than current Jon's was. Both were hungry, had nothing to lose, weren't expected to win, and didn't give af as a result. This, combined with their power punching styles, allowed them to take advantage of Jon's weariness nearly to the point of unseating him.
I don't think Jon is any less skilled than he once was. When Jon realized he needed big 4th and 5th roundss on Saturday to retain his belt, the weariness served him zero purpose, and he was therefore able to come into his own and edge Reyes. We also saw enough defensive brilliance early on to make me think that unseating him will still remain one of, if not the most, formidable tasks in the UFC. We also saw him not be weary in recent times, with those instances being his fights with Smith and Gus. In them, Jon was as dominant as he has ever been.
You don't see a fighter really fall off the cliff in the span of months. I think he can continue his reign for a long time if he can recapture his former mindset. Otherwise, I think he'll be unseated sooner rather than later, and a move to HW could yield disastrous results.
