Thing is, I believe Penne originally moved up from Atomweight as well so she may not be as naturally large as Paige. I don't like some of what i've been hearing from Michelle, not sure how seriously she is taking Paige. In my opinion Michelle only takes this with a submission. She hasn't shown KO striking power. She will not win a decision because Paige is not stupid enough to stand and strike with her round after round. If it goes to the cards it will have been mostly a grappling match, and Paige will have been dominant.
Michelle scores her subs with speed rather than with a high level of technicality. That is how she is able to armbar Penne who is a blackbelt in jujitsu and a brown belt in Judo. She applies the submission in a flash before her opponent can even respond. She literally brings the mentality of a striker to her grappling, she telegraphs nothing.
Anyway, many things favor PVZ here : size/strength, Michelle's layoff, Michelle's injuries. Michelle has even admitted that she hasn't been able to spar in training since her surgery because she is concerned about her hand. PVZ has to be the favorite, but sentimentally i'd like Michelle to win.