PVZ bigger fav over Chambers than Ronda over Tate + other ridiculous betting lines

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Melas Chasma, Aug 17, 2015.

  1. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    Lol at Paige being -1425 to -1813 favourite over Chambers. Paige is probably the most overrated fighter at the moment in the UFC. For comparison, Ronda is -1100 to -1376 over Tate. Yes, Ronda Rousey is a smaller favourite over a fighter she has finished twice already than Paige Van Zant (2-0 in UFC) over Alex Chambers (1-1 in UFC)..

    Another one is Cormier vs Gustafsson. Gustafsson being around +300 dog against DC is laughable. That line screams MMA math based on their fights against Rumble. The fact is Rumble has a decent to good chance to KO any fighter in the world in the first round. Rumble`s win over Gustafsson has nothing to do with how Cormier and Gustafsson`s skill sets matches up.

    Also interesting is that Werdum is now a small underdog against Cain, but Im not sure what to think about that. The long lay off Cain had + the altitude were a real factors in the first fight.

    Gastelum around -160 favourite over Matt Brown? Dont think he should be the favourite, more like 50/50 fight or Brown having a slight edge.

    [​IMG]

    She is just not that good


    https://www.bestfightodds.com/
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2015
  2. RTL

    RTL NostraMMAus™ Platinum Member

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    Might bet a grand and change on Chambers.

    Thank heavens for vWelfare.
     
  3. LayonJesus

    LayonJesus Orange Belt

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    Do you have any idea how betting lines work? If anyone is using "MMA Math" its you champ. Lines are based on the market and set by someone with infinite more knowledge of the market then yourself.

    10 years ago that was the case but the MMA market is just as efficient as baseball or hockey. Not quite at the level of NFL and Soccer but with the amount of money bet on MMA if you think your horrible analysis is going to make you money, I will take your bets at no juice for life.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2015
  4. -Dim-

    -Dim- Gold Belt

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    Chambers/Letourneau double - 22/1
    Gadelha/Chambers/Letourneau treble - 50/1
     
  5. Slapchoppin

    Slapchoppin Brown Belt

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    Tate has actual talent and seems to have developed some power

    she's still a massive underdog she's just a smaller underdog because she has some skill
     
  6. Dart Feld

    Dart Feld Steel Belt

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    There's over a decade difference in age and Alex looks it in her fights. Chambers last fight was a very late comeback having alot to do with the terrible fight I.Q by Curran(which happens to be a common opponent with PVZ).

    Credit to her for the late rally against Curran nevertheless.

    I'm not counting Chambers completely out but it's been set up as a showcase fight for PVZ. She very much looks like a 30+ yr. old WMMA fighter in her movement, wrestling, and striking. PVZ likely overwhelms her with pace and wins out in the scrambles with athleticism and constant gnp despite Chambers being a purple belt.
     
  7. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    The fact that you felt need to ask that question after (assumably) reading my OP tells me that you dont, but that you like to think you do. Im not laughing at the bookies, Im laughing at people who arent betting to balance those lines.
     
  8. AP_RESURRECTION

    AP_RESURRECTION Gold Belt

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    the line looks funny for sure - almost seems like people know something we dont - i can see PVZ being a favorite, but its almost like shes a sure thing
     
  9. Rvd Slmr

    Rvd Slmr Silver Belt

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    Betting lines are not made to define a fighter's chance of winning, they are about how the bookmarkers will make maximum profit. What happened here is probably that an unusual number of people are betting on PVZ and the bookmakers want it to stop.
     
  10. MadHouse

    MadHouse Black Belt

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    its a bad matchup for Chambers PVZ is extremely scrappy probably even more so than Curran also i doubt she would get caught as stupid as Curran did
     
  11. Drake

    Drake Guest

    This.
     
  12. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    Which one you think has improved more since their second fight, Ronda or Tate? Seriously, every fight they both have had since then indicates that the skill gap has only gotten bigger, not smaller.

    Yes, its a definitely a gift and safe fight for Paige. Everything you said I agree, but it still doesnt explain that betting line. She is a bigger favourite than almost anyone ever in the UFC, which is ludicrous considering how flawed, inexperienced and green fighter she still is.
     
  13. Magooglie

    Magooglie Steel Belt

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    PVZ has that youth energy and Chambers is 36.
     
  14. xmovingparts

    xmovingparts Green Belt

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    PVZ TKO'd Curran, Curran blasted Chambers until a crazy late sub which was Curran's fault almost in as much Chamber's technique. I didn't get the match up at all. I still don't. While the line shouldn't be near Rousey/Tate, that's probably why.
     
  15. Iron-Fists

    Iron-Fists Purple Belt

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    Kelvin should be the favorite. IMO, more than a -160 favorite at that.
     
  16. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    Those lines are implying that Paige is about 93-94% favourite against Chambers, when she should be more like a little over 80%, imo. She should be somewhere around -500 to -700 favourite.
     
  17. Cptn1NSAN0

    Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    Those lines are extreme but money on Tate, Chambers or Gus is money thrown away IMO.
     
  18. Xuh

    Xuh Red Belt

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    Betch had no way to win vs Ronda, Tate doesn't really either. So those odds make sense. But Chambers vs PVZ being in the same bracket, well...

    Chambers has a standing (T)KO over a girl who was never TKOd in over 20 fights & was once a top ranked wrestler in Japan (Japan being the Dagestan of women's wrestling).
    Chambers also has a sub over a top 10 fighter (Esquebel) who she subbed instantly after taking her down and also subbed Curran instantly it went to the mat in the 3rd despite being gassed and beat up. The same Curran who was beating PVZ until she gassed herself.

    Meanwhile PVZ will never (T)KO anyone standing in her career and is a submission liability waiting to happen in most of her fights so far.

    So yeah, I think PVZ should be the fav but the line is the most retarded I've ever seen in MMA.
     
  19. Melas Chasma

    Melas Chasma Red Belt

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    Any reason for that? I think Brown has looked great lately, despite his two losses against elite in Hendricks and Lawler. Brown gave both of them a good fight and has finished Erick Silva, Jordan Mein and Tim Means lately. I see Brown`s constant pressure giving problems pretty much against everyone in the division. I hope Kelvin wins, though. He is one of my favourites at WW.
     

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