Cycling Pro Cycling Discussion 5: Tour De France 2025

[Zebra Cheeks]

Alright fellas, we’re quickly approaching the Tour de France 25’. I’ll put a poll up top so you can all record who you think will win this year.

Personally, I’m hoping we just get quality racing.

Route: https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route

 

[Videer]

All stage profiles

I think Pogacar has it. Vingegaard has much better team than last year, probably tied with UAE or even slightly better.

Outside of those two I find it depressing. Remco has so weak team that he'll be fetching his own bottles after the first cat 1.



All 7 of the big 1 week stage races done for the season. Almeida won 3

 

[therealdope]

Something tells me this Tour could be over by Superbagneres. The Ventoux is just a ride to the base and unless someone is on a super insane day, it's not likely to be selective -- which is weird to say considering how hard it is. That stretch in forest is just brutal and it's too far from the finish to be the split. The Ventoux needs either a superhuman day or a tough pre-amble.

I know the Col de la Loze was Pogacar's crushing defeat in 2023 but I can't see him getting rolled a second time on that climb. I also don't see Vingagaard being down 1m30s and then he waits for the Loze to beat down Pogacar. It just doesn't seem like a likely event.

Barring a crash by Pogacar, him losing two or more key riders, or bug ravaging the team, this could be pretty much over by stage 14.

 

[therealdope]

This is a random story but Superbagneres has a special place in my heart because of the 1986 tour. I was racing in the Netherlands that summer and when Hinault took that 5+ min lead everyone I had contact with (racing, the owners of the bike shop, the people at stores) just ripped me a new one about how LeMond was never going to win the tour and that no North American rider would ever win because you have to grow up in cycling culture to gain the toughness to be a tour champ.

That moment when LeMond and crew caught Hinault just before the Superbagneres and LeMond rode by him and said, 'fuck you' will never be forgotten.

It was right about here:

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Something tells me this Tour could be over by Superbagneres. The Ventoux is just a ride to the base and unless someone is on a super insane day, it's not likely to be selective -- which is weird to say considering how hard it is. That stretch in forest is just brutal and it's too far from the finish to be the split. The Ventoux needs either a superhuman day or a tough pre-amble.

I know the Col de la Loze was Pogacar's crushing defeat in 2023 but I can't see him getting rolled a second time on that climb. I also don't see Vingagaard being down 1m30s and then he waits for the Loze to beat down Pogacar. It just doesn't seem like a likely event.

Barring a crash by Pogacar, him losing two or more key riders, or bug ravaging the team, this could be pretty much over by stage 14.

Unless it’s like a 3+ minute gap by loze I will be watching very closely. That stage was one of the most memorable over the last few years.

I feel like this race was designed to have remco lead out early, pogacar take over in the middle, and Jonas come up strong late.

So we won’t know I don’t think until 18/19 if Jonas will come good unless he’s completely collapsed before then.

 

[Flower2dPeople]

Unless it’s like a 3+ minute gap by loze I will be watching very closely. That stage was one of the most memorable over the last few years.

I feel like this race was designed to have remco lead out early, pogacar take over in the middle, and Jonas come up strong late.

So we won’t know I don’t think until 18/19 if Jonas will come good unless he’s completely collapsed before then.

Is it just me but TT aside, Remco is like a super domestique burning matches just to keep up with the 2 mutants, waiting for their GC to take over the last 5 km?

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

Is it just me but TT aside, Remco is like a super domestique burning matches just to keep up with the 2 mutants, waiting for their GC to take over the last 5 km?

I feel like he could take time on one or the other, perhaps both going up to stage 14. After that I think the climbing starts to get too involved.

 

[Yoricks Wisdom]

Hopefully, the race is competitive.
A one sided domination will be boring.

 

[eddymotto]

I don't have anything particularly original to add. Pogacar is the clear favourite. The only person who looks like he can even challenge for the win is Jonas.

Remco is a great talent and can probably take some time on the flat TT but does anyone think he is dropping Pogacar or Jonas in the mountains on a regular basis?

I don't know if we are still supposed to act like Roglic is a real contender. Great, great rider. Also 35 years old. Even if he stays on his bike, this feels like he is competing for 3rd. Plus he has to start looking old at some point, right?

I have heard/read a surprising number of takes that Jonas is getting better and may close the gap on Pagacar by the time they hit the mountains. I will never count Jonas out of any TdF but the unspoken premise seems to be that Pogacar has peaked while Jonas can still improve. Not sure the basis for that assumption. I find it easily plausible that Pogacar is even better at the Tour.

 

[Videer]

Is it just me but TT aside, Remco is like a super domestique burning matches just to keep up with the 2 mutants, waiting for their GC to take over the last 5 km?

The problem with Remco is that not only he lacks something like .2-.3 w/kg which is obvious on hard climbs, he is bad descender and even worse with positioning and his Tour squad is just bad.

What Remco has is insane aero and it is not only on a TT bike but I am quite convinced that the gap is even bigger on a road bike. No Pogacar or Vingegaard is going to chase Remco down on flattish terrain.

If I had to design a stage for Remco it would be with climbs that are not harder than 6% or so that he wont get overpowered by superior watts from Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Very easy and very fast downhill (good example would be Galibier descent from last year where on the second, non technical and easy part Remco just flew and easily caught everyoen)

And have that followed by a longish valley.

But because his team is crap and he will be out of position none of this will happen

 

[Flower2dPeople]

even worse with positioning

70% of his problems right here.

 

[therealdope]

Is it just me but TT aside, Remco is like a super domestique burning matches just to keep up with the 2 mutants, waiting for their GC to take over the last 5 km?

He definitely has no business attacking. He should just follow. Pogacar is likely going to retire by 31 so Remco has two years to win tours.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

The problem with Remco is that not only he lacks something like .2-.3 w/kg which is obvious on hard climbs, he is bad descender and even worse with positioning and his Tour squad is just bad.

What Remco has is insane aero and it is not only on a TT bike but I am quite convinced that the gap is even bigger on a road bike. No Pogacar or Vingegaard is going to chase Remco down on flattish terrain.

If I had to design a stage for Remco it would be with climbs that are not harder than 6% or so that he wont get overpowered by superior watts from Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Very easy and very fast downhill (good example would be Galibier descent from last year where on the second, non technical and easy part Remco just flew and easily caught everyoen)

And have that followed by a longish valley.

But because his team is crap and he will be out of position none of this will happen

I could see him being a threat in an era where the GC big threat isn’t quite so versatile. It’s kind of hard to capitalize on what would advantage him because pogacar is good at everything.

Normally I’d say, wow a guy like remco could do damage on TT, gravel, hills and flats…but he’s not a pure climber. But pogacar can do all those things better or almost as well. So it’s just hard to really see a path forward.

pogacars only real weakness is long climbing and he’s better than remco at that so idk how you draw up that plan.

 

[therealdope]

pogacars only real weakness is long climbing and he’s better than remco at that so idk how you draw up that plan.

Nope. His problem is ADHD. He is his own worst enemy. He's really only lost 2 tours and when you look at them, it isn't likely to ever happen again (barring crashes and sickness).

2022 - He had a weak team, Visma had a crazy talented team and you had WvA dropping Pogacar on a mountain. What ever Pflugge had pumped into Visma in 2022 you can bet the UCI won't let them use it again after 2023.

2023 - you had Pogacar running with a backpack up stairs a few weeks before the tour. His team was not great. Whatever Jonas had in his bike for the Gervais Les Bains TT you can bet the UCI won't let them have it again. LOL.

This tour could be over early and soul crushing for Jonas. Another beat down like last year and Pogacar will be deep in the nether regions of Vingagaard's psyche.

I don't want to disrespect Jonas but Pogacar is that much better than him. Pogacar has to fuck up to lose the tour. Jonas on great days isn't going to be enoough.

 

[Yoricks Wisdom]

"Whatever Jonas had in his bike for the Gervais Les Bains TT you can bet the UCI won't let them have it again."
Mechanical doping?
Splain.

 

[Yoricks Wisdom]

The similarities are both startling and appalling IMO.
Hopefully, there is only smoke and no fire.
Throughout my life, I've discovered that if something seems too good to be true, it usually is.
No offense to his many fans either.
Just sayin.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

The similarities are both startling and appalling IMO.
Hopefully, there is only smoke and no fire.

Lance did not look natural. I’ve never seen a dude that big fly up a mountain like that. Just didn’t look right.

Physically the closest thing I see to lance is Matteo jorgenson

 

[Yoricks Wisdom]

yea I get it.
but someone going on a solo break from 80k out in a single day race and winning by 3 minutes isn't normal either.

 

[therealdope]

"Whatever Jonas had in his bike for the Gervais Les Bains TT you can bet the UCI won't let them have it again."
Mechanical doping?
Splain.

Something he's never going to be allowed to use again.

 

[Yoricks Wisdom]

I see.

It all makes sense now.