Predict this summer's box office bombs

kidcas

kidcas

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Last summer you had Lone Ranger, After Earth and White House Down(which I liked). You could count RIPD too but I didnt consider that a major tentpole type release. So what will be the casualties of this summer?

#1 Jupiter Ascending - Tatum isn't a draw as an action star as WHD last summer showed. GI Joe doesnt count cuz that has a built in fan base. The Wach brothers havent had much box office success outside of the matrix. Speed Racer, Cloud Atlas all under performed.

#2 Edge of tomorrow - tom cruise is no longer a huge draw as an action star, unless its an established property like Mission Impossible. oblivion and jack reacher both underperformed and i think the trend will continue.

After these it gets harder, August releases usually aren't tent poles with high expectations, so IDK about expendables 3 or TMNT.

Guardians of the Galaxy and Hercules have my doubts about, but I'm not sure.
 
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Edge of Tomorrow seems to be tracking very poorly.

Regardless, it's still one of my most anticipated films this summer.


Dragonlordxxxxx said:
Update: May 19, 2014

EDGE OF TOMORROW Tracking for a Dismal $25 Million Debut

Edge-of-Tomorrow-Tom-Cruise-051914-Dragonlord.jpg


Edge of Tomorrow might be one of Tom Cruise’s better films in recent memory but will audiences show up to see it? Warner Bros., the film’s distributor, hopes so, despite the worrisome lack of buzz as the sci-fi movie nears its June 6 opening. But Warners will have to move fast to ramp up advertising and communicate to audiences that they’re in for an action-packed ride.

This week, pre-release tracking numbers dropped $5 million from last week, suggesting that Edge of Tomorrow’s opening weekend debut would be in the $25 million range, a dismal opening for any studio tentpole. The pricey pic, co-financed by Village Roadshow, cost between $175 and $200 million, meaning that in order to turn a profit, the film will have to make at least double that worldwide.

“Nobody really knows what this film is,” said a senior media analyst. “There isn’t a huge amount of action competition and there’s room for a film like this this summer, and yet there’s no buzz.” Although there’s currently not a lot of buzz around the release, another senior media analyst believes the film will pick up speed closer to opening day. “It makes sense that Warner’s would not want to dilute the waters with their own film,” he said, pointing out that the studio is focusing right now on rolling out the monstrous “Godzilla,” which targets a similar audience.

The studio is sending Cruise to three different premieres–Paris, London and New York–in one day (May 28), tying in with the film’s tagline, “Live. Die. Repeat.” According to Warner Bros. marketing president Sue Kroll, 80 percent of the paid media for the film has yet to be released. With several television season finales and both the NHL and NBA playoffs in full swing, she is confident that the studio’s message can get through. “It’s tough out there,” said Kroll, “Now it’s time to go to work.”


Warner Bros. and Tom Cruise Gear Up to Make Sure ‘Tomorrow’ Never Dies - Variety
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I worry about Hercules but GOTG will destroy the Box Office
 
kidcas said:
Last summer you had Lone Ranger, After Earth and White House Down(which I liked). You could count RIPD too but I didnt consider that a major tentpole type release.
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Well if you considered After Earth as a major tentpole release, then you should also include R.I.P.D. since both have the same $130 million production budget.

R.I.P.D. ($78 million worldwide gross) was bigger flop than After Earth ($243 million worldwide) also.
 
Dragonlordxxxxx said:
Well if you considered After Earth as a major tentpole release, then you should also include R.I.P.D. since both have the same $130 million production budget.

R.I.P.D. ($78 million worldwide gross) was bigger flop than After Earth ($243 million worldwide) also.
Click to expand...

good point, include RIPD in the list of bombs. I was thinking After Earth had higher expectations (it had will smith, mr. summer box office) but didnt consider the budgets.
 
Weird.... it won't let me capitalize both the "I" and "D"
 
Jupiter Ascending. Who's going to watch it other than Sci-fi geeks. Everything after the first Matrix has killed the wach bros. It looks like a kids film that kids can't watch, and the previews look jumbled and confusing, as per everthing Wach.
 
kidcas said:
Is the fan base for GOTG that big?
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The fan base doesn't need to be big.

1. Its Marvel
2. Its being promoted masterfully
3. Appeals to kids and adults alike
4. Cross-promotion with merchandise is going to be unbelievable
5. Decent star-power
6. Quintessential Summer flick


I only go out to theaters maybe 4 times a year. I'll definitely be seeing this one.
 
Cant wait for the new X-men and The Edge of Tomorrow looks totally awesome..

I think Jupiter Ascending may have success with the same demographic that watches Twilight and all those other teenage girl movies.

As for Guardians of the Galaxy... I grew up reading Marvel Comic books and I had never heard of this franchise until they made a movie out of it... and the biggest star in the movie is Bautista from WWE. Not sure how well its going to do....
 
and GOTG is part of the MCU and will probably have a teaser for next years Avengers. So that should carry it pretty well. It's not going to be Capt 2 big though.

Edge of Tomorrow should have been pushed to later August. It's going to get crushed, and no one is buying Tom Cruise as a badass action hero anymore. This considering i'm a Tom Cruise fan.

Hercules will be a moderate success in the same category as Scorpion King. I don't think audiences were asking for an other Hercules flick. Take away The Rock, add in any other actor, and the movie bombs miserably.
 
NAKMUAY18 said:
Jupiter Ascending. Who's going to watch it other than Sci-fi geeks. Everything after the first Matrix has killed the wach bros. It looks like a kids film that kids can't watch, and the previews look jumbled and confusing, as per everthing Wach.
Click to expand...

channing tatum looks really out of place. i'm not sure even his female fans will come out for this. this would be two summer bombs for him in a row.
 
The Mookster said:
... and the biggest star in the movie is Bautista from WWE. Not sure how well its going to do....
Click to expand...

Chriss, Pratt, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper, Benicio del Toro, Glenn Close, Djimon Hounsou, John C Reily, Michael Rooker, Zoe Zaldana,................yeah Batista is the star.
 
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