Politico poll released 8/22/18 shows Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 12 pt, 13 pt

ocean size said:
As for the actual poll in question, someone ping me when the RCP or other poll aggregates say the same thing. No point to listen to any single poll when we can do better.


Did you miss the part where people won't pay health insurance anymore and it is likely to be a wash with overall healthcare costs?
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"Won't pay health insurance". Yeah, let's send it straight to the fed's, that's a great scheme.
 
Polls conducted 800 days before the election aren't actually accurate or relevant at all, nothing to do with Soros.
 
Would have thought it'd be bigger. No homo.
 
Trotsky said:
Now we all know that polls and math in general are fake news that are concocted arbitrarily to further narratives by George Soros: this much was proven after polls in 2016 rendered the most accurate popular vote total projections in modern history, considerably more accurate than in 2012.
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Getting a popular vote projection close to correct while missing every one of the only stats that actually decide the presidency is like flunking a test so hard your teacher gives you 5 points for putting your name on the paper so you dont commit suicide that night, then bragging to everyone about how youre actually a genius
 
Peter Smits said:
Getting a popular vote projection close to correct while missing every one of the only stats that actually decide the presidency is like flunking a test so hard your teacher gives you 5 points for putting your name on the paper so you dont commit suicide that night, then bragging to everyone about how youre actually a genius
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I lol'd. There is some truth to this.
 
Peter Smits said:
Getting a popular vote projection close to correct while missing every one of the only stats that actually decide the presidency is like flunking a test so hard your teacher gives you 5 points for putting your name on the paper so you dont commit suicide that night, then bragging to everyone about how youre actually a genius
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For better or (clearly) worse, that's generally how polling is reported in the news. Very few outlets had/have polling in place to project electoral vote counts, and the ones that did (FiveThirtyEight, etc.) were giving Trump a fairly good chance (>30%) and overall popular vote projections were, as I said, closer to reality than in 2012.

The big deciding factor would seem to have been, and seemed to be leading up to the election, the relative enthusiasm and passion of the two candidates' bases. So you could expect a larger amount of persons polled in support of Trump to turn out than those polled in support of Clinton. But that's a hard phenomenon to accommodate.
 
waiguoren said:
That's simply untrue.

Trump's centerpiece issue was immigration. The favorites to win the Republican nomination were Rubio and Bush.

Marco Rubio was part of the Gang of Eight, a bipartisan group of Senators that produced a bill to create a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants living in the United States. The Trump base of the Republican Party strongly opposed Rubio on that issue. Words cannot describe the vitriol that Breitbart base has toward Rubio being a part of that process. They voted.

Jeb Bush took a similarly soft stance on the immigration issue.

Trump was the hardliner on immigration. Not only did he oppose amnesty, he called for the building of a southern border wall. He is the first presidential candidate in US history to earn the endorsement of the Border Patrol's union. He found his opponents' policy weakness and drove it home all the way to a primary victory.
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You might be able to add wanting better relations with Russia to that list
 
SBJJ said:
You might be able to add wanting better relations with Russia to that list
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Do you think that was a major campaign issue? I really don't think it was.
 
LOL, don't count on it.
I remember the polls had Hillary with 98% of the vote or some lunacy.
We all saw how that went.
 
Politico is horribly biased, but I'm not surprised at all that Bernie (huge social media and youth support) and Biden (people see him as same policies as Obama) would be leading Trump right now

Never underestimate Trump's campaigning though once the season starts. If you can't say anything else good about him, you can't deny that somehow he really whips people into a frenzy and gets loads of people off couches and into the polls.

Is it bad that I want Biden to be the DNC nominee purely for the glorious memes?
 
HockeyBjj said:
Politico is horribly biased, but I'm not surprised at all that Bernie (huge social media and youth support) and Biden (people see him as same policies as Obama) would be leading Trump right now

Never underestimate Trump's campaigning though once the season starts. If you can't say anything else good about him, you can't deny that somehow he really whips people into a frenzy and gets loads of people off couches and into the polls.

Is it bad that I want Biden to be the DNC nominee purely for the glorious memes?
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Who do you see as the most likely Democrat nominee?
 
waiguoren said:
Who do you see as the most likely Democrat nominee?
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Honestly I don't have a clue, because I don't think the dems do either with their leadership dissaray at the top

I believe dnc just passed a rule that you have to be a dem politician to primary as a dem which blocks independent Bernie, Bidens name has always been in the hat but he's been pretty quiet. I hear rumors of Hillary still being interested but I don't think even the dnc is that dumb. That Corey Booker was a hot shot for a while but has simmered.

I think look for whoever makes the most noise these midterms, or someone who really vocally takes on Trump and gets media support to be the person
 
Hilary won the popular vote, but the electoral collage exists. Polls are all fine and dandy but they don't reflect electoral votes.
 
waiguoren said:
Do you think that was a major campaign issue? I really don't think it was.
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Oh. I definitely think it was. It was what got him in the most trouble. I’d say he mentioned it far more than Tariffs during the campaign
 
SBJJ said:
Oh. I definitely think it was. It was what got him in the most trouble. I’d say he mentioned it far more than Tariffs during the campaign
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I think if you looked at the total time he spent talking about trade vs. the total time he spent talking about Russia, it wouldn't be close. Also, polling shows that the Republican base cared way more about immigration than about Russia
 
HockeyBjj said:
Honestly I don't have a clue, because I don't think the dems do either with their leadership dissaray at the top

I believe dnc just passed a rule that you have to be a dem politician to primary as a dem which blocks independent Bernie, Bidens name has always been in the hat but he's been pretty quiet. I hear rumors of Hillary still being interested but I don't think even the dnc is that dumb. That Corey Booker was a hot shot for a while but has simmered.

I think look for whoever makes the most noise these midterms, or someone who really vocally takes on Trump and gets media support to be the person
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I think @Jack V Savage 's favorite candidate Martin O'Malley has a shot. However, my Bernie Sanders-voting best childhood friend says I'm totally wrong and that O'Malley is a terrible orator. I feel that Elizabeth Warren is possibly the biggest threat to Trump.
 
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