Political Betting Thread

[Ryan Kelly]

You might need to sit down for this.

You dont define words.

The context in which you used betray is unintentionally reveal. It requires me to be hiding something.

You dont know the meanings of the words shill or betray. Or you are being deceitful by using them.

You come across as pretty childish so far.

That’s fine dude, I’ve tried to be cool w you and I told you I don’t think you’re being deceitful. If that isn’t good enough for you, idgaf.

 

[longway]

That’s fine dude, I’ve tried to be cool w you and I told you I don’t think you’re being deceitful. If that isn’t good enough for you, idgaf.

And i told you i accepted your post in good faith, and explained to you that being called a shill and saying i betrayed myself mean that you are saying i am being deceitful, intentionally or not.

You then became weird and abusive about it all.

So i responded to you.

i dont like being smeared, please dont do it again.

 

[longway]

Trump trailing in Texas. That bodes poorly imo.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

I find these hard to believe. Its interesting the current rcp average has hiden ahead less than killary in swing states at the same point in the race, yet hiden is winning in texas?

Not sure i buy it.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

And i told you i accepted your post in good faith, and explained to you that being called a shill and saying i betrayed myself mean that you are saying i am being deceitful, intentionally or not.

You then became weird and abusive about it all.

So i responded to you.

i dont like being smeared, please dont do it again.

This is my last post about this. I’ve gone out of my way to clarify that I wasn’t trying to attack you personally. You’ve called me a troll, deceptive, childish, weird and abusive. I’m sorry you didn’t understand how i used the word “betray”.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I find these hard to believe. Its interesting the current rcp average has hiden ahead less than killary in swing states at the same point in the race, yet hiden is winning in texas?

Not sure i buy it.

That’s fair. Are you equally skeptical of the recent polling showing trump tightening Biden’s lead after the RNC?

 

[longway]

This is my last post about this. I’ve gone out of my way to clarify that I wasn’t trying to attack you personally. You’ve called me a troll, deceptive, childish, weird and abusive. I’m sorry you didn’t understand how i used the word “betray”.

Its not me who does not understand the word betray, or shill, its you.

I called itvas i saw it. And unlike you i know the meaning of words i use mean.

Why not just say, i didnt realise betray requires deceit. Its pretty hard to believe tbh.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Its not me who does not understand the word betray, or shill, its you.

I called itvas i saw it. And unlike you i know the meaning of words i use mean.

Why not just say, i didnt realise betray requires deceit. Its pretty hard to believe tbh.

It doesn’t require deceit. It does mean you’ve unintentionally revealed something. For example, your responses to me betray your status as a sensitive pussy.

 

[longway]

That’s fair. Are you equally skeptical of the recent polling showing trump tightening Biden’s lead after the RNC?

Why would i be skeptical? When is that last time texas went blue in a presidential race? I would expect to see wider margins in swing states than killary to believe hiden is ahead in texas. It just doesnt make sense.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Why would i be skeptical? When is that last time texas went blue in a presidential race? I would expect to see wider margins in swing states than killary to believe hiden is ahead in texas. It just doesnt make sense.

“I’m skeptical of data that portends an outcome I don’t want, but fully embrace data that comports w my existing beliefs”

 

[longway]

It doesn’t require deceit. It does mean you’ve unintentionally revealed something. For example, your responses to me betray your status as a sensitive pussy.

Thats your opinion. You seem pretty touchy yourself, you get sand in your vag quite alot i imagine.

And you are still wrong about the meaning of betray.

Im still not beyraying anything am i? I am very open about who i support. And you did also say i was a shill.

Hope that was your last post on it.

 

[longway]

“I’m skeptical of data that portends an outcome I don’t want, but fully embrace data that comports w my existing beliefs”

You dont argue is good faith. Its just childish at this point. I pointed out why i am skeptical.

Feel free to mute me.

Looking at the dates, the polls are not that recent, would like to see some new polls to see if there is a similiar shift there.

 

[Bjjpitbull8]

At this point what difference does it make? He is suffering from cognitive decline and being hidden from the public aside from carefully managed appreances. He did an interview on cnn recently and was clearly reading from a script, and still got things wrong. The guy is a mess.



Just bc the dnc is a unmitigated disaster of a party doesnt mean its propaganda, and its all relevant to betting.

Joe Biden at 120 years old, is still double the IQ of Donald Trump.

What exactly does this tweet prove? It’s from Tristan Justice, who writes for a Texas conservative column. Not exactly non-biased.

 

[longway]

Joe Biden at 120 years old, is still double the IQ of Donald Trump.

What exactly does this tweet prove? It’s from Tristan Justice, who writes for a Texas conservative column. Not exactly non-biased.

The video shows that Hiden can't do an interview where he gets the questions in advance without a script.

That betrays a steep cognitive decline and why he will not last in office very long if elected.

You don't like trump clearly, but I didn't chose Hiden, dnc primary voters did, blame them for choosing him and the media for hiding the fact he is not up to the job, something they are still doing.

Look, this is a betting thread. If you can't handle a dose of reality, then go elsewhere, or mute me. These 2 new guys are so fucking sensitive.

 

[longway]

Holy fcuk, Hiden and trump lines are almost the same now on betfair.

I am surprised at how quickly the sentiment has changed.

 

[Bjjpitbull8]

The video shows that Hiden can't do an interview where he gets the questions in advance without a script.

That betrays a steep cognitive decline and why he will not last in office very long if elected.

You don't like trump clearly, but I didn't chose Hiden, dnc primary voters did, blame them for choosing him and the media for hiding the fact he is not up to the job, something they are still doing.

Look, this is a betting thread. If you can't handle a dose of reality, then go elsewhere, or mute me. These 2 new guys are so fucking sensitive.

The fact alone that you refer to him as Hiden, makes it impossible for me to take you seriously.

I am far from sensitive, and I don’t see that other poster as sensitive either. I made an observation about this betting thread, and without me even naming you, you attacked me. Clearly, you are well aware you’ve tried to turn this thread into a pro trump thread. Do you realize almost every recent post has been made by you?

I have zero problem with Joe Biden. He actually cares about people. I’m not a big fan of politicians in general. I don’t even associate with a party. But I will gladly take almost any human being over Donald Trump. You should go and post in some far right forum, and leave some space in this thread for information actually related to gambling and useful information in predicting a winner. I came here with an interest in betting trends, not actual politics. I don’t bet with my heart, and I certainly would never take advice from another gambler who did bet with his/her heart.

 

[Roads55]

The fact alone that you refer to him as Hiden, makes it impossible for me to take you seriously.

well his name is joe biden, and he is in fact hiding. hiding from interviews, hiding from anything where he has to talk unscripted. that could be him or his team and it's extremely relevant to betting this election when trying to determine his mental state which clearly is not good in the slightest. humor doesn't take away from this.

 

[longway]

The fact alone that you refer to him as Hiden, makes it impossible for me to take you seriously.

I am far from sensitive, and I don’t see that other poster as sensitive either. I made an observation about this betting thread, and without me even naming you, you attacked me. Clearly, you are well aware you’ve tried to turn this thread into a pro trump thread. Do you realize almost every recent post has been made by you?

I have zero problem with Joe Biden. He actually cares about people. I’m not a big fan of politicians in general. I don’t even associate with a party. But I will gladly take almost any human being over Donald Trump. You should go and post in some far right forum, and leave some space in this thread for information actually related to gambling and useful information in predicting a winner. I came here with an interest in betting trends, not actual politics. I don’t bet with my heart, and I certainly would never take advice from another gambler who did bet with his/her heart.

Don't take me seriously.

I didn't attack you. I responded to a post you made that quoted my post on why I think Hiden will be replaced with evidence showing he does interviews in which he knows the questions b4 and still needs a script.

Like it or not, the guy is a mess. You might think Hiden is a nice guy, but he kicked off his campaign with a vicious lie that trump referred to nazis as nice people. His running mate has a terrible record as an AG, and did cruel things. But you believe what you want.

You are very emotional about all this as is the other guy.

It's not my fault that the dnc has been fomenting division in the usa for years, the results of which are coming to light now, and have chosen a terrible presidential ticket.

If you cannot handle Pro trump info, that's your problem, not mine.

Upto now you have brought nothing of any use to anyone here.

Please show me where I where mislead anyone with my posts. I used my info and judgement and started buying trump at +170, he is now at +105. Using my info was profitable. I have stated already, I am not sure whether I will let my bets ride till after the election, or buy out if them prior, as upto now, I am not sure who will win. There are other posters far more bullish than me on trump's chances.

 

[Roads55]

Holy fcuk, Hiden and trump lines are almost the same now on betfair.

I am surprised at how quickly the sentiment has changed.

me too, I did not expect it as the polls tightening are modest at best for trump and he doesn't have much else going for himself, but his numbers in swing states seem to be better than ppl are realizing. I have to take it with a grain of salt though as a lot of ppl who were saying the polls are fake with biden's big national lead are now blindly believing the battleground states polling. I am close to break even on my not trump bets i bought out of, regretting not getting out a couple weeks ago now, but I have a nice bet on next president to lose the popular vote at around 3.7 I'm pretty happy with.

 

[longway]

me too, I did not expect it as the polls tightening are modest at best for trump and he doesn't have much else going for himself, but his numbers in swing states seem to be better than ppl are realizing. I have to take it with a grain of salt though as a lot of ppl who were saying the polls are fake with biden's big national lead are now blindly believing the battleground states polling. I am close to break even on my not trump bets i bought out of, regretting not getting out a couple weeks ago now, but I have a nice bet on next president to lose the popular vote at around 3.7 I'm pretty happy with.

Looks overbought, but perhaps people are pricing in further deterioration in hiden's numbers.

On swing state polling, my understanding is that last time polls did not sample enough whites without college degrees, this time they may have corrected that flaw, though I am not sure.

 

[Yotsuya]

Man I’m happy I arbet out of my not-Trump bet. I knew the rioting would get Trump a lot to play with.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/...ident-trumps-2nd-term-agenda-fighting-for-you

Trump's 2nd term agenga.

Is it just me, or is this more sensible than last time? School Choise can get him black votes? China policy is pretty good again for industrial swing states and probably more than Democrats will commit to even if they have hawkish stand too? Illigal emigration policies seem less obviously populist?