PFL, Professional Fighters League, MMA, betting thread

Thesnake101 said:
Musaev's value went out the window once he got bet down from dog to moderate favorite.
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it doesn't make any sense to me now, he went to draw with a mid opponent not long ago,. i have to deep tape this one to make sure i'm not seeing things wrong. Umatolov dec is probably the best handicap too.
 
Stat_Collector said:
it doesn't make any sense to me now, he went to draw with a mid opponent not long ago,. i have to deep tape this one to make sure i'm not seeing things wrong. Umatolov dec is probably the best handicap too.
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I mean 3 years can be a lifetime for fighters, and KSW judging can be dodgy. Since then he's dominated all of his opponents, and finished them all as well. Imo comparing the two Shamil seems like the more skilled fighter, finishing rate is identical but Shamil gave their first finish losses to Storley, Murad and Kunchenko which speaks to how deadly he is. Comparing that to stopping Taylor (4 losses by TKO), Silawi (5 losses by TKO), Ward (finished in all of his losses) and Bowen (.500 record and only 1 loss by decision) and I can see why the line became what it currently is. You're basically left with Umalatov having to lean on his wrestling across five rounds vs a guy who has shut down every wrestler he's faced so far, high level wrestlers, and who doesn't get overzealous chasing a finish and gassing. If anything Umalatov is the one who is far more willing to slow things down if he doesn't get a finish early.

I'm probably not backing him unless money comes in on Umalatov, but I do think Shamil has the edge based on what each have shown in PFL so far. He's looked flawless.
 
I think there's a non-zero chance that the main and co-main end up in upsets.

Ditcheva has looked beastly but Santos has never been finished, is always a game opponent and has 5-round experience. If she survives the first two rounds then I think her chances to win go up drastically.

For Brendan/Timur I do think Khizriev should win but he's very much someone who coasts and it might bite him in the ass here.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think there's a non-zero chance that the main and co-main end up in upsets.

Ditcheva has looked beastly but Santos has never been finished, is always a game opponent and has 5-round experience. If she survives the first two rounds then I think her chances to win go up drastically.

For Brendan/Timur I do think Khizriev should win but he's very much someone who coasts and it might bite him in the ass here.
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Santos looked like absolute dogshit vs Carmouche imo. She arguably lost that fight, and Carmouche is 40. And Carmouche won by miracle last second armbar her previous fight after getting her ass kicked by Watanabe most of the fight. Santos eked out a split over Bishop fight before that (by comparison, Ditcheva was taken down by Bishop early, calmly worked her way back to her feet, and proceeded to fold her brutally against the cage). Not saying Santos was on gear and now isn't necessarily...but in 2 years she went from arguably beating Shevchenko to looking like she's 31 going on 44? It's curious to say the least.

Also, with Kayla gone the PFL is DESPERATE for Ditcheva to be their female star. And she's hot, so it's the easiest sell ever if they can crown her champ and give her a million bucks. Everyone knows it. So if she has Santos against the cage and is letting her hands go and has her even a little hurt...think they'll let it go on and give Santos a chance to recover? Or is a quick stoppage more likely?
 
Got a bit more to consider but so far gone for....

Shamil Musaev/Mansour Barnaoui parlay - Think Musaev is too good everywhere, better faster striker than Umalatov and his TDD is absolutely top notch. Barnaoui I just think does what he wants to Alfie on the ground if he gets him there and Alfie doesn't have the power to stop him just coming forward and grabbing him.

Jose Perez - I line him as a slight favourite. I like his cardio and the pace that he fights at. I think Adjouj took advantage of a guy who looked slow as molasses last time and I think Perez will be a different proposition.

Slim Trabelsi - Bably likes to wrestle and Slim is just a bigger, better wrestler than he is. Bably's path to victory is probably running and trying to pot shot but I don't see it working.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I mean 3 years can be a lifetime for fighters, and KSW judging can be dodgy. Since then he's dominated all of his opponents, and finished them all as well. Imo comparing the two Shamil seems like the more skilled fighter, finishing rate is identical but Shamil gave their first finish losses to Storley, Murad and Kunchenko which speaks to how deadly he is. Comparing that to stopping Taylor (4 losses by TKO), Silawi (5 losses by TKO), Ward (finished in all of his losses) and Bowen (.500 record and only 1 loss by decision) and I can see why the line became what it currently is. You're basically left with Umalatov having to lean on his wrestling across five rounds vs a guy who has shut down every wrestler he's faced so far, high level wrestlers, and who doesn't get overzealous chasing a finish and gassing. If anything Umalatov is the one who is far more willing to slow things down if he doesn't get a finish early.

I'm probably not backing him unless money comes in on Umalatov, but I do think Shamil has the edge based on what each have shown in PFL so far. He's looked flawless.
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yeah im gonna go here for Musaev, but deciding on a prop bet. if you have suggestions
Hellowhosthat said:
Musaev is gonna trash him imo I don't think Umalatov is elite.
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Would you play ko or dec line?
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Posted literally just before you. I've parlayed him with Mansour.
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Im trying to put a hail mary together (prop parlay.)

Im playing it a bit square and predictable, but i'm expecting the card to go that way.
 
mkess101 said:
Santos looked like absolute dogshit vs Carmouche imo. She arguably lost that fight, and Carmouche is 40. And Carmouche won by miracle last second armbar her previous fight after getting her ass kicked by Watanabe most of the fight. Santos eked out a split over Bishop fight before that (by comparison, Ditcheva was taken down by Bishop early, calmly worked her way back to her feet, and proceeded to fold her brutally against the cage). Not saying Santos was on gear and now isn't necessarily...but in 2 years she went from arguably beating Shevchenko to looking like she's 31 going on 44? It's curious to say the least.

Also, with Kayla gone the PFL is DESPERATE for Ditcheva to be their female star. And she's hot, so it's the easiest sell ever if they can crown her champ and give her a million bucks. Everyone knows it. So if she has Santos against the cage and is letting her hands go and has her even a little hurt...think they'll let it go on and give Santos a chance to recover? Or is a quick stoppage more likely?
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That's all fair, but we're talking a +280 underdog here, all of the value on Dakota has gone away especially now that she's approaching -420. Of course they want her to win, but PFL has always had big upsets in their championship finals since their inception, and Dakota has only gotten out of the 1st on 3 occasions. She's the rightful favorite, but considering that the girls who have given Santos trouble so far in PFL were both strong grapplers, I'm not ready to write her off as a lamb to slaughter against Ditcheva yet.

This is the second test Dakota will face, and by far the toughest, imo the chances of her losing here are greater than the odds would suggest despite her looking very deadly so far on the feet.
 
Thesnake101 said:
That's all fair, but we're talking a +280 underdog here, all of the value on Dakota has gone away especially now that she's approaching -420. Of course they want her to win, but PFL has always had big upsets in their championship finals since their inception, and Dakota has only gotten out of the 1st on 3 occasions. She's the rightful favorite, but considering that the girls who have given Santos trouble so far in PFL were both strong grapplers, I'm not ready to write her off as a lamb to slaughter against Ditcheva yet.

This is the second test Dakota will face, and by far the toughest, imo the chances of her losing here are greater than the odds would suggest despite her looking very deadly so far on the feet.
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Yeah the time to bet Dakota was at the open when she was -200 or whatever. I agree now it's too late.

If Santos had looked ANYTHING like she did vs Valentina recently I'd probably pick her to just hold Dakota down and win a decision. She just looks like a shell of that fighter. Again...not sure if it's necessarily her not being "enhanced" anymore but it definitely has that look.

PFL for sure has had big upsets but most of them weren't fighters expected to carry the organization. I think that's the hope with Ditcheva. Good looking, relatively well spoken and with enough of an edge to remind people a little of Rousey. Ref will feel pressure to stop it at the first sign of Santos being hurt imo.
 
Kasanganay wont be able to implement his grappling and His cardio is worse than Yaghis.

Yagshi is much better striker. Much bigger. Very good takedown defense. Over 5 rounds he will dominate
 
I'm not that into PFL anymore so don't tail, but I think you can argue for most dogs on the main card. I'm playing tiny on all besides Musaev fight.
 
Trying to decide on Eid. I don't think the Iranian gas tank is gonna hold over 5 but will he still be there by the end of round two?
 
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