Petr Yan Excellent Value

[Doughie99]

Me personally, I'm baffled how Megan Anderson is such a huge underdog.

 

[electricfuneral]

Sterling keeps talking about how he is going to take yan down and dominate him. It makes me wonder if he has a striking heavy game plan and is throwing smoke. Tough fight for sterling, he has to catch aljo on the ground or grapple fuck him for 5 rounds. Yan will try to accumulate damage until sterling alters his game plan.

 

[TheScorpionDude]

Oh Jesus Christ I hope you're not serious about this one.

Super serious. I think you'll be surprised.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Big yan fan here .

But the problem is his output ...he got outstruck by rivera ...If he didn't drop him in the last minute he would if lost .

Sterling can certainly mimik riveras busier more volume style and win on points .

I hope like hell yan catches him and outs him away ...but I could see sterling pitter oattering him to a 3-2 decision based solely on volume .

Rivera is arguably the most defensively technical fighter in the division outside of Aldo and put on an amazing performance versus Yan.

Aljo is less defensively sound and often out of position after kicks. I also don’t see him using technical footwork to be constantly drawing out attacks to slip and allow himself to pressured like Rivera did - you need supreme confidence in striking defense to use that approach.

And despite an almost perfect fight against Yan he still got caught twice by sell out blitzes that almost finished him.

I like Sterling and give him a decent chance to sub Yan early, but the odds of him winning a technical outfighting performance over Yan is practically non-existent.

 

[kalabula]

I’m surprised that there has only been one “post the betting slip, then” type post so far in this thread.

 

[MeatWagon06]

This card is just full of possible surprises.

There are so many 50-50 fights it's crazy.

Me personally, I'm baffled how Megan Anderson is such a huge underdog.

Did everyone forget that Nunes just became a dad ?

Feel like you just wanted to make a Amanda’s now a Dad joke. Psssh

 

[TheScorpionDude]

Feel like you just wanted to make a Amanda’s now a Dad joke. Psssh

I did.

But I also think that the odds are insane.

I'm not an WMMA fan, so I won't act like I know WMMA.

BUT, that chick is HUGE, she can punch, she can kick and she can knee.

And Amanda is a dad now.

So with all that being said, the odds are insane. And I'll absolutely do a lottery ticket with that fight included.

Amanda's downfall is long overdue. Trust me she will not perform as well as you expect.

 

[shoorik1987]

Big yan fan here .

But the problem is his output ...he got outstruck by rivera ...If he didn't drop him in the last minute he would if lost .

Sterling can certainly mimik riveras busier more volume style and win on points .

I hope like hell yan catches him and outs him away ...but I could see sterling pitter oattering him to a 3-2 decision based solely on volume .

He got better since that fight

There's no problem with output. Yan is a top 3 in UFC when it comes to output in condition. He's up there with Holloway in volume of strikes.

Yan is a true 5 round fighter, that get's better as the fight goes on and maintains high volumes. He's one of those deep waters type of guy.

Disagree that he was outstuck by Rivera, sure Rivera was faster, but Yan set he traps and Riveras was saved by the bell twice in that fight.

If you argue that without KDs Rivera would have won, I can argue that with 30 more in R1 and R2 Rivera would get KTFO.

I would also argue that in a 5 round fight Rivera would get KTFO.
...

Prediction for upcoming fight. Yan KO in round 3.

 

[SteveColdStone]

I think Sterling’s best chance is a sub. I don’t think he can out-strike Yan for prolonged periods. Sterling has somewhat questionable cardio and Yan has a sizeable power advantage. Yan is going to put his back against the cage and will win the fight imo. He might have some early hurdles but I’m confident in his ability to get the job done here.

 

[KingRyan]

I agree 100%. I think Yan is stronger and more explosive, has more heart, is more technically skilled in every area of the game and has taken less damage in his career.

 

[Jinx_AA]

There's no problem with output. Yan is a top 3 in UFC when it comes to output in condition. He's up there with Holloway in volume of strikes.

**I'm a big fan of Yan - I'm rooting for him !! ...just giving an opinion on how someone could beat him ....rivera outstruck him by over 30 significant strikes according to stats ...

On top of that , he's highly susceptible to leg kicks with his high hands boxing stance ....aldo dropped him off his feet with 1 leg kicks ....I'm sure sterling will try and do the same .

I already placed 50 on yan to win ....just nervous for him and breaking down how he could potentially lose .

I'm on the yan warwagon though !
Yan is a true 5 round fighter, that get's better as the fight goes on and maintains high volumes. He's one of those deep waters type of guy.

Disagree that he was outstuck by Rivera, sure Rivera was faster, but Yan set he traps and Riveras was saved by the bell twice in that fight.

If you argue that without KDs Rivera would have won, I can argue that with 30 more in R1 and R2 Rivera would get KTFO.

I would also argue that in a 5 round fight Rivera would get KTFO.
...

Prediction for upcoming fight. Yan KO in round 3.

 

[mkess101]

Yan hasn't fought anyone who will challenge him vertically with level changes like Aljo can. It's hard to say what exactly Aljo's gameplan will be, but IF he mixes up his grappling and striking he will be giving Yan more to digest than anything he's had before. Rivera can grapple a bit, but nowhere near Sterling's level. If Sterling chooses to only strike, I'm not sure he can withstand Yan's power and aggression for 25 minutes. But it's hard to see Sterling not making a real effort to take Yan down, where Sterling will have a decided edge if he can get top position. That would also allow him to dictate the pace of the fight and control his energy expenditure, while also making Yan work off his back.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Lol I have been having buyer’s remorse over my Aljo action but this thread actually makes me feel waaay better about it

 

[Brockstar]

Aljo early sub or Yan late finish.

Aljo fades as it goes late and Yan gets stronger.
Yan Round 4 is +2200 and Yan Round 5 is +3300. I put some on that.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Yan hasn't fought anyone who will challenge him vertically with level changes like Aljo can. It's hard to say what exactly Aljo's gameplan will be, but IF he mixes up his grappling and striking he will be giving Yan more to digest than anything he's had before. Rivera can grapple a bit, but nowhere near Sterling's level. If Sterling chooses to only strike, I'm not sure he can withstand Yan's power and aggression for 25 minutes. But it's hard to see Sterling not making a real effort to take Yan down, where Sterling will have a decided edge if he can get top position. That would also allow him to dictate the pace of the fight and control his energy expenditure, while also making Yan work off his back.

Agree w most of this but I overestimated Sterling’s grappling advantage. Yan’s defensive wrestling is really fucking good. And idk if Aljo could have gotten his wrestling going late against Munhoz. Afraid he will look good early and then get fucked up once he gets fatigued and Yan figures him out. He can’t maintain crazy volume and movement for 25 I worry.

 

[UrG00d]

This card is just full of possible surprises.

There are so many 50-50 fights it's crazy.

Me personally, I'm baffled how Megan Anderson is such a huge underdog.

Did everyone forget that Nunes just became a dad ?

Getting run over by Felicia Spencer and finished by MMA meme Cindy Dandois, probably.

 

[UrG00d]

William Hill has Petr Yan at -120 tonight against Sterling. I find this to be an amazing value play as Yan should be somewhere more of a -200 favorite in this fight. Don't get me wrong I like Sterling, I think he has more charisma than most and solid grappling but his striking is just okay. I called Derrick Lewis KO'ing Curtis Blaydes in the second and I see Petr stopping Sterling in the third.

I think this is the FOTN. I was on Yan until I watched tape and I think he is likely to be behind 2-3 rounds going into round 4. He is a fucking cyborg, however, and his right hand is amazing so it should be interesting but I still think it's a hard win for him to get.

 

[mkess101]

Agree w most of this but I overestimated Sterling’s grappling advantage. Yan’s defensive wrestling is really fucking good. And idk if Aljo could have gotten his wrestling going late against Munhoz. Afraid he will look good early and then get fucked up once he gets fatigued and Yan figures him out. He can’t maintain crazy volume and movement for 25 I worry.

I suspect Yan's wrestling (counter wrestling specifically) is really good...but haven't seen it vs someone on Aljo's level with their grappling. If we see Yan easily stuff Aljo's first 2-3 attempts, that's gonna be very telling.

Cardio definitely a factor. Although man he controlled everything vs Rivera for 3 rounds and looked like he could have gone 5 more. But Yan pushes a super high pace with his aggression so different type fight.

For sure the most intriguing fight on the card imo.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I suspect Yan's wrestling (counter wrestling specifically) is really good...but haven't seen it vs someone on Aljo's level with their grappling. If we see Yan easily stuff Aljo's first 2-3 attempts, that's gonna be very telling.

Cardio definitely a factor. Although man he controlled everything vs Rivera for 3 rounds and looked like he could have gone 5 more. But Yan pushes a super high pace with his aggression so different type fight.

For sure the most intriguing fight on the card imo.

What do you like tonight, Mike? Or you still not playing anything?

 

[mkess101]

What do you like tonight, Mike? Or you still not playing anything?

I'm really not betting these days, aside from doing some DK lineups. I posted some thoughts on most of the fights in the thread for this card. I think once they legalize gambling in my state and there are legit options I'll start making plays again. I'm getting close to where I'd go back to Vegas too so obviously I'll have action when that happens.

I like the o2.5 in the ME a bit. I think Nunes finishes, likely rd 2-3. Islam sub +3xx looks good to me. I think Matthews is maybe a bit more live than some think vs Brady. Elliot by dec hedged with Espinosa rd 3. Some others I posted there too.