Before I get started, this isn't meant to be a "Frankie will destroy Aldo" type of thread or even necessarily a "Edgar will win" thread. A lot of people are saying things like that Frankie doesn't stand a chance, that he has no advantages over Aldo, or that Jose is going to easily finish him in the first round. I'm going to take some statements that are thrown around and refute them. 1. Frankie doesn't even deserve the title shot, he hasn't fought at the weight and is coming off of two losses. This one is a legitimate point, which is why I wanted to address it first. Even as a Edgar fan, I believe that he should have had to win at least a fight or two before being given this opportunity, but his last fight was very close and most of the fans and MMA media scored the fight for Frankie. I really don't want to dwell on that decision too much, my point is that the above circumstances don't really mean anything in regard to how Edgar is going to do against Aldo. 2. We don't know how the weight cut will affect Edgar. Frankie rarely ever weighed more than 160lbs. on fight night when fighting at lightweight, even with a strength and conditioning centered camp. He also said he didn't even really diet to stay around that weight. At the most, Edgar is going to be cutting 10-12 pounds. That can be done in a day, fairly easily. Frankie wrestled in college, I'm sure he remembers how to cut weight. I wouldn't be surprised if he actually slims down a bit and doesn't even need to cut 10 pounds. This is a non issue. 3. Jose Aldo will tear Frankie Edgar apart with leg kicks like he did to Faber. Edgar has gotten very good at catching leg kicks. Edgar also has good counters and wrestling, I doubt Aldo will even bother throwing very many unless they are part of a combination because he doesn't want to be taken down off of a kick that Frankie catches. 4. Jose Aldo will KO Edgar quickly. This could happen, but I really doubt it. Edgar has been hit with huge punches from Maynard and the upkick from Bendo and wasn't KOed by them. Aldo has great power at FW and is a very talented striker, but even if he does manage to hurt Frankie I don't think he would be able to finish him off because Frankie recovers so well. 5. Aldo is better on the ground too. I'm aware that Aldo has done well in pure grappling matches, but that doesn't necessarily mean his BJJ will be effective in MMA. I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just saying we really don't know one way or the other until we see it utilized in a fight. The one time we did see him on his back he was exhausted and just taking the round off because he knew he was up on the scorecards, and Edgar has never been submitted in his career. We won't know why has the grappling advantage until they fight, but I'd actually give the edge to Edgar right now, he's taken down Maynard and BJ. 6. Jose Aldo is on another level than Edgar. Frankie held and defended a belt in a heavier weightclass, despite been smaller than Jose is. I also think that Edgar has better wins in Maynard, BJ, and even Sherk than Jose has over Faber, Mendes, and Florian. In my opinion Edgar is the best fighter that Aldo has ever been up against, while I'm not sure that's true the other way around. I see the fight being competitive throughout and ending in a fairly close decision. At the moment I'm leaning toward Edgar but am well aware of what a beast Aldo and I'm certainly not confident enough in my pick to put money on it.
Well as for myself I still think he should have fought in a #1 contender fight prior to getting a titleshot BUT I just cant wait for this fight and Im actually slightly favoring him! He fought bigger, better opponents than Aldo did and I think his relentless pace wont be affected by the cut...I see him winning a close decision over ALdo. Wouldnt bet the house on it though!!!
It's definitely going to be a competitive fight. I honestly can't wait. Hope the cut goes okay for Frankie. He could definitely win this though.
I think Aldo will win, but that shouldn't take away from any excitement around what should be a FOTY contender.
Frankie will outwrestle Aldo. If the fight goes to the ground Aldo is not submitting Frankie, and if the fight stays on the feet, Frankie will use that mongoose footwork, Aldo may win but he ain't knocking out Frankie. Faber got leg kicked to death but his stand up is ain't that near of Frankie's especially the footwork.
Good post TS. Just to piggyback on your first point, it is generally accepted that fighters can compete at a very high level, even have an advantage, when moving down in weight. Going up a weight class is what raises the questions of being able to handle bigger, stronger fighters. And I agree with you on how Edgar will handle the weight cut. I disagree a bit with you on leg kicks. True, Edgar is good at catching them, but he has eaten them too. And Aldo is one of the best in the business with his leg kicks. They are fast and powerful, perfect technique. He doesn't leave them out there. I am not saying Frankie won't catch one or two, but eating Aldo's kicks are an issue. Overall great post and I agree, this will be a very competitive and a really fun fight to watch. I am not sure why people are saying Frankie can't compete. He has been great, so that thought process in unwarranted.
I think Edgar can absolutely win this! I am not a big fan of this guy but it's criminal how underrated he is.
Great post TS! I have Aldo winning in dominant fashion, but you make great points. Until proven otherwise I still view Aldo as an unstoppable beast. To me, Edgar has more to prove here.
one fighter I will never dismiss is Frankie Edgar! He always proves people wrong. I think Aldo is the favourite but Frankie can most certainly win that fight
good post, i agree with all of it except #4.. i dont think its fair to compare maynards striking with aldos, if aldo lands a shot as hard as maynard i think his killer instinct is on another level
Here's the thing with me.... I believe Edgar doesn't get enough credit and he deserves more. In my opinion he's one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. With that said, Aldo is a different animal. Maybe because I'm "bias" but Edgar isn't a type of fighter who will attempt to lay n prey or wall n stall like Ken Flo attempted. Edgar will stand with Aldo attempting to mix it up. I just believe it will end up being his downfall. Aldo's leg kicks are some of the best in the UFC. If anyone could beat Aldo, its Frankie Edgar but my money is Jose Aldo.
Well, once Edgar puts on a few more fights where he doesn't seem so, um, prone to being hit maybe I won't count him out against guys like Aldo. But for now, Edgar's ability to take a hit can only take him so far. He's never been a p4p fighter to me.
I can see Edgar winning by decision. Either way, this card is fantastic. This match, Overeem/Silva, and Rashad/Lil Nog, cant wait!
Good post. Though I think Edgar will get the better of Aldo in the end, Aldo is such a beast with so many ways to win that he cant be counted out until the final bell.
