Parlay or play seperately

[longway]

I like moicano and grishin in the upcoming ufc 271

Both are about 1.6 (-167)

I like them both enough to put 2u on each. But is that the right way to play?

Is it not better i put 2u on a parlay?

If i play seperately, there are 3 outcomes

Win 2.4u
Lose 0.8u
Lose 4u

With a parlay, i either win 3u or lose 2u.

Which is better?

 

['Suga Daddy']

Separately, both have very live dogs fighting them

 

[guesswhoseback]

Bet 1 unit first fight and if you lose then double down on the next fight no way can u lose both fights

 

[longway]

Separately, both have very live dogs fighting them

Ive decided seperately is better.

Parlay, if my capping is right, it will be coin flip whether i lose 2u or win 3u. Seperstely i have 50% chance of winning 2.4u, 42% chance of losing 0.8u, and 9% of losing 4u.

I think the latter is the better play.

 

[longway]

Bet 1 unit first fight and if you lose then double down on the next fight no way can u lose both fights

But the lines might lose their value by fight day.

 

[guesswhoseback]

But the lines might lose their value by fight day.

Na

 

[Thesnake101]

But the lines might lose their value by fight day.

They could also gain value or you could see something during the weigh-ins that makes you change your mind.

That's without mentioning last minute pull-outs.

 

[iGnP]

All you're doing by parlaying is taking the winnings from the first fight (if it wins, of course) and rolling the original bet plus the profits onto the second bet. It's not +EV one way or another, its entirely dependent on how you want to manage your own bankroll.

 

[longway]

They could also gain value or you could see something during the weigh-ins that makes you change your mind.

That's without mentioning last minute pull-outs.

Well, i cant count on that. I liked the lines on both, normally i would not parlay these lines wanted to think outside the box. I didnt think it made sense, in the end.

 

[The Disasters]

I like moicano and grishin in the upcoming ufc 271

Both are about 1.6 (-167)

I like them both enough to put 2u on each. But is that the right way to play?

Is it not better i put 2u on a parlay?

If i play seperately, there are 3 outcomes

Win 2.4u
Lose 0.8u
Lose 4u

With a parlay, i either win 3u or lose 2u.

Which is better?

I won't comment on your choices because that's your handicapping, but I will comment on how to bet it.

Those odds say they'll each win 62.5% of the time, your odds will say what % you think they'll win but that's the win % implied by the odds. Two 62.5% chance wagers will both win 39% of the time. Substitute the odds you would make each fighter, multiple them, and then compare the odds of each fighter and the odds of the parlay against the chances you give them. For example, if you made each fighter -200, they would each have a 67% chance of winning, resulting in a parlay which hits 44.5% of the time.

All things being equal, why not do both? If you want to spend 4 units and want to get a little better price by parlaying, bet 1.5 units on each fighter straight up and 1 unit on the parlay.

 

[longway]

I won't comment on your choices because that's your handicapping, but I will comment on how to bet it.

Those odds say they'll each win 62.5% of the time, your odds will say what % you think they'll win but that's the win % implied by the odds. Two 62.5% chance wagers will both win 39% of the time. Substitute the odds you would make each fighter, multiple them, and then compare the odds of each fighter and the odds of the parlay against the chances you give them. For example, if you made each fighter -200, they would each have a 67% chance of winning, resulting in a parlay which hits 44.5% of the time.

All things being equal, why not do both? If you want to spend 4 units and want to get a little better price by parlaying, bet 1.5 units on each fighter straight up and 1 unit on the parlay.

Thats interesting. I will think about that.

 

[mkess101]

All you're doing by parlaying is taking the winnings from the first fight (if it wins, of course) and rolling the original bet plus the profits onto the second bet. It's not +EV one way or another, its entirely dependent on how you want to manage your own bankroll.

THIS!

If you are actually looking for +EV, in this case it probably makes no sense to parlay UNLESS you believe the line on the second fight (chronologically) is going to shift away from what you want to bet. If you believe the line will stay about where it is, you aren't getting an edge at all by parlaying.

Imagine having a two fight parlay where your first bet wins and the second fight is later on the card. Sometime between the first fight (that won) and the second fight a report comes out that the second leg of your parlay has been hiding a major injury but didn't want to pull out of the fight and lose his payday. He's limping a bit coming to the cage, takes one solid leg kick and collapses.

Had you just bet the amount on the first fight with the plan being to roll it all into the second fight...you'd still have the option to bail on that injured fighter in the second fight (or at least reduce your action) if you deemed the reports somewhat credible. If you're locked into a parlay, that's it. Ride or die.