I'm setting a date when I think Trump will first make a public statement about his presidential candidacy that is equivalent to sour grapes. I'm giving it until about 3 weeks after the Olympics, which is still 2 weeks before the first debate is scheduled. Over or under? I chose the date because if Trump makes it to 9/11 without giving up, he'll be riding the 15th anniversary scaremongering into the debate, which will be a momentum boost. I think it's 50/50 that he all but taps out before then, though.