Over/Under: Trump Sour Grapes by 9/11

September 11 Sour Grapes

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Fawlty

Fawlty

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I'm setting a date when I think Trump will first make a public statement about his presidential candidacy that is equivalent to sour grapes. I'm giving it until about 3 weeks after the Olympics, which is still 2 weeks before the first debate is scheduled. Over or under?

I chose the date because if Trump makes it to 9/11 without giving up, he'll be riding the 15th anniversary scaremongering into the debate, which will be a momentum boost. I think it's 50/50 that he all but taps out before then, though.
 
There will be a day when Trump says something like, "They wanted me to be president, but I was too busy." But it'll be after the election.
 
I put over, but the only thing about trump I know is that he will be hard to predict, his fans will follow no matter what, and independents (the so called brainiacs of the American system) will make up their minds at the last second based on how much they don't like Hillary vs how much trump talks himself into defeat.
 
He's going to ride that ego right into the GE.

Hes not going to tap out before the debate but hes going to turn up the trumpisms because hes got nothing to lose.

After he loses the election hes going to parlay this into lucrative publicity deals.

He wins no matter what.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
He's going to ride that ego right into the GE.

Hes not going to tap out before the debate but hes going to turn up the trumpisms because hes got nothing to lose.

After he loses the election hes going to parlay this into lucrative publicity deals.

He wins no matter what.
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I had always thought this was his original plan, and he didnt expect to actually get nominated. Its not a bad strategy for him personally, bit it makes his supporters look real dumb.
 
7437 said:
I had always thought this was his original plan, and he didnt expect to actually get nominated. Its not a bad strategy for him personally, bit it makes his supporters look real dumb.
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it makes the entire country look dumb. For believing in Trump and for having an opponent so unpalatable, people choose Trump instead.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
it makes the entire country look dumb. For believing in Trump and for having an opponent so unpalatable, people choose Trump instead.
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Trump's racism and transparent (to us) con is what makes him palatable to about 40% of Americans.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Trump's racism and transparent (to us) con is what makes him palatable to about 40% of Americans.
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well, historically, he was bound to get 35-40% of the GE vote just by being the Republican nominee - regardless of his character / views. But, i'll concede the white nationalist faction gave him the win in the primaries; well, that and his celebrity. Lets not ignore the appeal fame has in the US spectrum. I mean california, a state large enough to have the 8th highest GDP in the world elected the Terminator as a Governor. Minnesota elected a CT loving Wrestler.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
well, historically, he was bound to get 35-40% of the GE vote just by being the Republican nominee - regardless of his character / views. But, i'll concede the white nationalist faction gave him the win in the primaries; well, that and his celebrity. Lets not ignore the appeal fame has in the US spectrum. I mean california, a state large enough to have the 8th highest GDP in the world elected the Terminator as a Governor. Minnesota elected a CT loving Wrestler.
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Yeah, that too. Lots of stupid voters. Doesn't really say anything about the other candidate that 40% or so are voting for someone like Trump. Obama's been the best president in the past 50 years, at least, but if he could run again, Trump would still get that 40% or so (Obama's numbers would be a little better than Clinton's but not much).
 
Jack V Savage said:
Yeah, that too. Lots of stupid voters. Doesn't really say anything about the other candidate that 40% or so are voting for someone like Trump. Obama's been the best president in the past 50 years, at least, but if he could run again, Trump would still get that 40% or so.
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Historically, anyone running under the Republican banner, or for that matter, Democratic banner is going to get 40-45% guaranteed (aside from the few elections). Party lines and dedication to affiliation carries a ton of weight.

Obama could be a guy that got Trump's numbers in the 35% range.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
Historically, anyone running under the Republican banner, or for that matter, Democratic banner is going to get 40-45% guaranteed (aside from the few elections). Party lines and dedication to affiliation carries a ton of weight.

Obama could be a guy that got Trump's numbers in the 35% range.
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McCain got 46.2%, which seems to be the Republican floor (excluding major third-party years). So Trump could fall well below that as is. Not sure how much further you could really expect him to go. The Democratic floor has recently been lower (Mondale got 40.4%), but demographic changes since then probably mean it's higher, and of course a Trump-like candidate could drive it lower (if they nominated a liberal equivalent--say Roseanne Barr or Kanye West--they could fall a little below what Mondale got adjusted for demographics). That same change could mean that the GOP floor is lower than McCain, but that was pretty recent so maybe not.
 
Jack V Savage said:
McCain got 46.2%, which seems to be the Republican floor (excluding major third-party years). So Trump could fall well below that as is. Not sure how much further you could really expect him to go. The Democratic floor has recently been lower (Mondale got 40.4%), but demographic changes since then probably mean it's higher, and of course a Trump-like candidate could drive it lower (if they nominated a liberal equivalent--say Roseanne Barr or Kanye West--they could fall a little below what Mondale got adjusted for demographics). That same change could mean that the GOP floor is lower than McCain, but that was pretty recent so maybe not.
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I think the GOP floor gets held up in this election due to the disdain Hillary gets. Trump is probably the most hated candidate ever, but Hillary is right behind. 1/4 people find both horrid -- while Romney/ Obama was 1 and 10. I would say Hillary is not a high notch above Kayne (who would be pretty popular all things considering) if Trump -- a guy who is a caricature of a candidate that you can get, gets above 40%, i say its more indicative of Hillary hate than white national love.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
I think the GOP floor gets held up in this election due to the disdain Hillary gets.
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It's kind of circular. Clinton gets the hatred she does because she's a Democrat, and the GOP has been cultivating a base of really hateful people. Obama was equally hated (it's only receding now because he's no longer running for office--remember how popular Clinton was when she wasn't running for office), and any Democratic candidate, regardless of personal characteristics or policy positions, would be very hated by the GOP base. So you have that hard 40% or so (might be a little higher, might be a little lower).
 
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JudoThrowFiasco said:
He's going to ride that ego right into the GE.

Hes not going to tap out before the debate but hes going to turn up the trumpisms because hes got nothing to lose.

After he loses the election hes going to parlay this into lucrative publicity deals.

He wins no matter what.
Click to expand...
I think he will continue his campaign, but I also think he's going to start with the sour grapes routine, probably some form of "it's rigged, and the presidency isn't real," etc.
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's kind of circular. Clinton gets the hatred she does because she's a Democrat, and the GOP has been cultivating a base of really hateful people. Obama was equally hated (it's only receding now because he's no longer running for office), and any Democratic candidate, regardless of personal characteristics or policy positions, would be very hated by the GOP base. So you have that hard 40% or so (might be a little higher, might be a little lower).
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No one on the dem nominee side has been as hated by both sides as much Clinton, that just factual. Trump is more hated, obviously, but against any other cnadiate on the left, i would put that over under on that hard 40 as under.

In this election, i think we will see a 92' like result with both low 40's and a high 3rd party turnout.

If he was going against Barry, it would be 60/35
 
Fawlty said:
I think he will continue his campaign, but I also think he's going to start with the sour grapes routine, probably some form of "it's rigged, and the presidency isn't real," etc.
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well hes already started with the rigged spiel.. so you win?
 
Lol. Wishful thinking.

Can someone post the list of times that trumps campaign has been declared dead by the talking heads in a box?

Mark my words, a week before the debate, trump will release a swath of detailed policy proposals, like he just did on infastructure spending. Real policy, and clinton will end up getting sucked into a mudslinging competition, and lose.
 
You guys are delusional. There is no reason at for Trump to tap out.

Trump is an idiot but he is going to lose mostly because of demographics. Like 95% of blacks are voting for hillary and a crushing number of latinos too.
 
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