News Opening lightweight futures Odds - Charles Oliveira is the underdog against Dustin & Conor

Peli said:
Conor has better striking. If he's the same conor and hasn't lost a step, its a competitive fight. Charles plays right into conor's hands and style. Both are fast starters. I have to see how he looks to make a definitive prediction. Even if he wins, if he scrapes by dustin, I don't think that will be enough for charles. If he wins decisively, I think he's the favorite. We'll see though.

Conor is a slick striker. Chandler isn't he was winging shit and still manage to catch charles. One thing to factor is charles reactive takedowns. He can take conor down easier than dustin did. We'll see though.
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Chandler could afford to be riskier and wild in the striking exchanges because he is an elite wrestler and he was confident in his ability to grapple with Charles, even going so far as to choose to engage Charles’ guard (not a strategy I agree with) rather than force Charles to strike.


Conor WAS a very slick, creative and unpredictable striker. He has, imo, regressed into a predictable boxer with a very limited set of attacks and a stance that leaves his front leg planted and vulnerable.

Conor from 5 years ago who threw a wide variety of kicks and varied his timing and angles was a challenge for elite MMA strikers.

Conor who fought Dustin presented power shots that could be read, adjusted to and avoided. He has a dangerous left hand counter. And at 155 it isn’t a kill shot. It is dangerous but not a touch of death.


Basically Conor needs the early KO or he is getting finished. His lead leg is a liability. His ground game is a liability against Charles (anyone should be worried about Charles on the ground).

all probably a mute point as he is likely getting finished or outpointed by Poirier
 
Oliveira beats both. Poirier's grappling is technical but he's weak.
 
jeff7b9 said:
Chandler could afford to be riskier and wild in the striking exchanges because he is an elite wrestler and he was confident in his ability to grapple with Charles, even going so far as to choose to engage Charles’ guard (not a strategy I agree with) rather than force Charles to strike.


Conor WAS a very slick, creative and unpredictable striker. He has, imo, regressed into a predictable boxer with a very limited set of attacks and a stance that leaves his front leg planted and vulnerable.

Conor from 5 years ago who threw a wide variety of kicks and varied his timing and angles was a challenge for elite MMA strikers.

Conor who fought Dustin presented power shots that could be read, adjusted to and avoided. He has a dangerous left hand counter. And at 155 it isn’t a kill shot. It is dangerous but not a touch of death.


Basically Conor needs the early KO or he is getting finished. His lead leg is a liability. His ground game is a liability against Charles (anyone should be worried about Charles on the ground).

all probably a mute point as he is likely getting finished or outpointed by Poirier
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when it comes to conor, I don't believe in regression. I believe he's stagnant. I don't think that skillset will vanish compeltely if he trains it. for training camp. But yeah, Its a lot to ask, we will have to see. Last night and even early today, I said I favor him over oliveira but it really depends on what conor will see. I think dustin is the best light weight in the world with gaethje not far behind.
 
jeff7b9 said:
Chandler could afford to be riskier and wild in the striking exchanges because he is an elite wrestler and he was confident in his ability to grapple with Charles, even going so far as to choose to engage Charles’ guard (not a strategy I agree with) rather than force Charles to strike.


Conor WAS a very slick, creative and unpredictable striker. He has, imo, regressed into a predictable boxer with a very limited set of attacks and a stance that leaves his front leg planted and vulnerable.

Conor from 5 years ago who threw a wide variety of kicks and varied his timing and angles was a challenge for elite MMA strikers.

Conor who fought Dustin presented power shots that could be read, adjusted to and avoided.


Basically Conor needs the early KO or he is getting finished. His lead leg is a liability. His ground game is a liability against Charles (anyone should be worried about Charles on the ground).
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That's not a fair assessment. Conor threw kicks in the Cerrone fight and variety of surpising techniques. Even in the Poirier rematch he did well and presented new time of attacks. Reality is that a while ago he fought smaller people and could get his legs up more. He didn't use high flashy kicks against Diaz because he was too tall(hard to teep besides other things) and could do well grappling. Poirier won because he used his own leg kicks, better defense with a lot of feints(baiting Conor's leanback and making him doubt himself) and using wrestling.
 
Ideanudge said:
That's not a fair assessment. Conor threw kicks in the Cerrone fight and variety of surpising techniques. Even in the Poirier rematch he did well and presented new time of attacks. Reality is that a while ago he fought smaller people and could get his legs up more. He didn't use high flashy kicks against Diaz because he was too tall(hard to teep besides other things) and could do well grappling. Poirier won because he used his own leg kicks, better defense with a lot of feints(baiting Conor's leanback and making him doubt himself) and using wrestling.
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Someone actually studied Conor’s entire UFC run and posted the states on his kicks, punches and ratio of kicks to punches.

as I recall the outcome was that he has steadily used less kicks, more punches.

The Cerrone fight, in my opinion is the least applicable of his last 10 fights due to the fact that Cowboy is basically target practice in the first round and the blueprint to take him out via round one blitz has been long established. It was over in less than a minute, Cerrone threw nothing back. None of this will apply in matchups against other LW contenders.



He was younger & faster in his FW fights and had a significant size and strength advantage over opponents which allowed him to kick more and avoid being taken down. Conor was at his best at 145, his power was too much for FWs, his reach was too much for FWs.

Those advantages didn’t carry over to 155. His death touch in his left hand became “warning track power” his reach is manageable for LWs.

He is an exceptional fighter. Being a top ten ranked former champ is nothing to sneeze at. But he is past his peak, he has been relatively inactive while guys like Poirier, Gaethje and Charles have been hard at work grinding to be the best. He also trains at a gym with sub par talent at the elite level. And he is uber wealthy and not the same hungry savage that he was when he tore thru FW and beat Eddie.
 
How in the fuck is Conor the favorite?
 
They have to be factoring in recognition and popularity, Oliveira continues to be overlooked.
 
Poirier beats him but not so sure about Conor. I think I would have to pick Charles in that one.
 
Peli said:
when it comes to conor, I don't believe in regression. I believe he's stagnant. I don't think that skillset will vanish compeltely if he trains it. for training camp. But yeah, Its a lot to ask, we will have to see. Last night and even early today, I said I favor him over oliveira but it really depends on what conor will see. I think dustin is the best light weight in the world with gaethje not far behind.
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All fair points.

I think all of those matchups could go either way, with Conor’s chances dropping significantly at the end of each completed round or if the fight goes to the ground.

Conor’s aura is gone, his mental warfare is no longer an effective tool and he has no easy matchups in his future if he wants to seek the title. He needs to fix his front leg exposure which imo will require a complete overhaul of his stance and striking style. That’s a lot to ask. I have a hard time conceptualizing how he could achieve that in a matter of months.
 
Do Bronx likely loses to DP but beats Conor easily.

Really only DP an Islam seriously threaten Do Bronx
 
I think Conor could KO Chandler Aldo style. Like starch him in the very first exchange. Chandler is a much shorter fighter and tailor made for Conor.
 
I can understand DP being the betting favorite but -180 is ridiculous. Conor being favored vs any top 5 LW is beyond silly.

Oliveira -110, Poirier -110

Oliveira -180, Conor +150

Oliveira at plus odds = bet the house
 
Oliveria just has to fight smart agsinst conor and I see Charles finishing Gregor. He can actually hurt Conor on feet - just stay away from left. He gets Conor on ground and itll be pathetic. That's an overlay ( odds)but I'm willing to see how Conor comes prepared vs Dustin. If Dustin beats Conor agsin , I really dont see Conor taking another fight. However , Vegas opened trilogy a PK em for a reason.

I knew Conor at -285 over Dustin in 2nd fight was ridiculous. Usually the guy who wins second fight ( to make it 1-1) comes back at a decent favorite in 3rd.... not the case here. I'll be rooting for Dustin but cant make a prediction.
 
Islam would be betting favorite against ANY LW.

He's like -600 against Moises and was -500 against Dober and RDA

Arman who sparred with Dustin and fought Islam said Islam beats Dustin
 
jeff7b9 said:
Someone actually studied Conor’s entire UFC run and posted the states on his kicks, punches and ratio of kicks to punches.

as I recall the outcome was that he has steadily used less kicks, more punches.

The Cerrone fight, in my opinion is the least applicable of his last 10 fights due to the fact that Cowboy is basically target practice in the first round and the blueprint to take him out via round one blitz has been long established. It was over in less than a minute, Cerrone threw nothing back. None of this will apply in matchups against other LW contenders.



He was younger & faster in his FW fights and had a significant size and strength advantage over opponents which allowed him to kick more and avoid being taken down. Conor was at his best at 145, his power was too much for FWs, his reach was too much for FWs.

Those advantages didn’t carry over to 155. His death touch in his left hand became “warning track power” his reach is manageable for LWs.

He is an exceptional fighter. Being a top ten ranked former champ is nothing to sneeze at. But he is past his peak, he has been relatively inactive while guys like Poirier, Gaethje and Charles have been hard at work grinding to be the best. He also trains at a gym with sub par talent at the elite level. And he is uber wealthy and not the same hungry savage that he was when he tore thru FW and beat Eddie.
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My reply was about reasons why he is using less kicks... He is no longer much taller guy who can easily get away with them and his opponents were people who could take him down so it is riskier to use them. It doesn't mean he is less strong, the competition is stronger. If he would go down he would still be lighter and a massive FW.
 
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