Elections Ooof... New Poll Numbers... Getting Ugly for Trump? [Update]

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Wow Ipsos. Seems super solid. Here we have them on 11/7/2016 saying hillary has a 90% chance to win presidency, democrats have a 55% chance to take senate and repubs have a 70% chance to keep the house. They literally couldn't have gotten it more wrong THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. https://www.ipsos.com/en/2016-us-pre-elections-clinton-has-90-chance-winning-november-7

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Fluffernutter said:
I think both parties are pretty good at dividing and conquering our country.

Neither of these candidates is who we need to be our president.

Sadly, I think good people don't want the job (or don't want to campaign for the job) anymore.
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Good people aren't allowed into the club in case they change the way things are run. No matter who wins the election their policies for the most part will be the same and they're the policies that benefit the richest people in the world.
 
HereticBD said:
Chance percentages aren't polls! They're merely predictions....based on polls.
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Oh I fully understand that but they obviously have a problem because their polls led them to believe there was almost no chance Trump would be president, and less so that both houses of congress would end up the opposite of how they did. They obviously have a severely flawed polling system to be able to literally hit 100% wrong with every prediction. This is not a reliable polling institution. Like much of the MSM aligned orgs they are just telling people what they want to hear to get more clicks.
 
Natural Order said:
Yes he is mate, check his voting history.

He's a moderate/centrist who even swings right on some issues. FFS the man was instrumental in the war on crime initiatives.
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He's not a centrist, just a political whore. He does whatever the highest bidder wants. He even sells his children to foreign interests
 
Libero cane v2 said:
The heck is going on in Arizona? Joe just cruising to a landslide victory.
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The Democrats are running a much better candidate in the Senate race in Arizona. He’s leading by 17-18%, that’s gonna drag Trump down a bit, and Biden’s popular with older voters.

The big difference between this year and 2016 as I see it is the almost certain lack of a winning plurality. When we’ve seen the candidate with lower popular vote total win, it’s always been with no candidate taking the majority of votes. Even if the polls are much worse this year than they were in 2016, Biden is tracking to take over 50% of all votes cast. That doesn’t guarantee an electoral college win, but it makes it harder to lose. Biden’s window looks to be 50.5-57% of votes. If Biden lands on the low end of that, maybe trump squeezes by with narrow electoral wins in key states, but if he hits the midpoint and wins by an 8pt margin, it’s could look like a blowout on the elector map.
 
Put money on it then. If one is so sure Trump is bound to lose or will win. Seems a poor choice to NOT bet on it.
 
drstrangelov said:
The Democrats are running a much better candidate in the Senate race in Arizona. He’s leading by 17-18%, that’s gonna drag Trump down a bit, and Biden’s popular with older voters.

The big difference between this year and 2016 as I see it is the almost certain lack of a winning plurality. When we’ve seen the candidate with lower popular vote total win, it’s always been with no candidate taking the majority of votes. Even if the polls are much worse this year than they were in 2016, Biden is tracking to take over 50% of all votes cast. That doesn’t guarantee an electoral college win, but it makes it harder to lose. Biden’s window looks to be 50.5-57% of votes. If Biden lands on the low end of that, maybe trump squeezes by with narrow electoral wins in key states, but if he hits the midpoint and wins by an 8pt margin, it’s could look like a blowout on the elector map.
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It's an inexact science, but estimates give Trump between a 2 and 5 point EC advantage, meaning at the extreme end, Biden could potentially win the popular vote by 5 points and still lose the EC. This is extremely unlikely, but it could happen. On the other hand, a win by over 5 points would almost guarantee an EC win, too; however, if Trump is trailing by 2 points or less he is actually the EC favorite.

Right now Biden leads by 7.3, so within the margin of error for a Trump EC win, but on the unlikely end of the spectrum.

Of course analysis as amazingly complex as this will hurt the heads of Trumpers, so they will just spam, "muh polls!!"

Mark Hunts FIST said:
Abc/washington post sept 5-sept 8 2016.
Clinton 51%
Trump 43%

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2016/General_election_polls
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No one is saying that the numbers today are going to be the numbers in Nov.

You might want to consider only 8% of voters say they are undecided this year as compared with 20% in 2016, though.

Oceanmachine said:
Put money on it then. If one is so sure Trump is bound to lose or will win. Seems a poor choice to NOT bet on it.
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I agree Biden is a good bet. Right now, just looking at numbers, he should be about a 2 to 1 favorite, but bookmakers have him at -110 I believe. Bookmakers basically followed the polls up to a couple of weeks ago when they thought the election was getting real close. It will be interesting to see if the line opens back up if polls continue to stabilize. It might be time to put a real good value bet on Biden.
 
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Wait until Cohen's book comes out. Trumps numbers will be even worse.
From what the book say is Trump has hair only growing long on one side that goes down to his shoulders and he uses that piece of hair to make his wrap around do.
That combined with the girdle, make up, and lifts Donny wears, makes me think Stroker Ace is a beta.
 
44nutman said:
Wait until Cohen's book comes out. Trumps numbers will be even worse.
From what the book say is Trump has hair only growing long on one side that goes down to his shoulders and he uses that piece of hair to make his wrap around do.
That combined with the girdle, make up, and lifts Donny wears, makes me think Stroker Ace is a beta.
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JollyCleanChameleon-size_restricted.gif
 
There are two ways to look at polling:

1. National polls in 2016 were correct within the margin of error (fact), and a relatively unlikely event occurred with Trump winning the EC despite losing the popular vote.

2. Trump won, so everything we thought we knew about everything was bullshit.

Unfortunately, due to the extremely infrequent occurrence of presidential elections, both of the above attitudes can appear equally plausible, even though one is certainly more rational.
 
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Confucamus said:
I remember Fallon had to apologize for having Trump on his show. He had to apologize for "normalizing" him. That really happened.
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and that was so early on. Let us not forget that the protests and accusations and hysteria, the lumping of any Trump voter into the ‘stupid and racist’ bin, happened BEFORE he even took office.
 
Not much point in voting then. Your boy's got it in the bag, so no need for you to bother voting.
 
2016 should have taught everyone that these polls mean nothing....

Trump is going to win by a huge margin.....

Biden is ignoring half of his own party, ffs.....

it wont even be close....
 
Confucamus said:
I remember Fallon had to apologize for having Trump on his show. He had to apologize for "normalizing" him. That really happened.
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Of course, he wanted to keep his job. Lol, is it pathetic ? Sure, but at the end of the day jimmy still wants a job.
 
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