Elections Ooof... New Poll Numbers... Getting Ugly for Trump? [Update]

[andnowweknow]

You might find this article interesting and horrifying.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

That article, unless I missed something, seems to ignore the objective consequences of losing, not simply his inability as a narcissist to accept it for his own ego. He has objective legal and quality of life consequences that are very real if he is not president, and his biggest problem, is that he will have very few friends and an unusually large amount of powerful enemies.

 

[luckyshot]

That article, unless I missed something, seems to ignore the objective consequences of losing, not simply his inability as a narcissist to accept it for his own ego. He has objective legal and quality of life consequences that are very real if he is not president, and his biggest problem, is that he will have very few friends and an unusually large amount of powerful enemies.

This is a great point. If Trump could cut a deal to go have legal immunity in order to leave office quietly and go on with his OAN news career, I'm sure he would. But that possibility isn't on the table.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[Stop Being Greedy]

I open this thread will real trepidation hoping for good news every time I see a post from @PolishHeadlock2 or @luckyshot

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

I open this thread will real trepidation hoping for good news every time I see a post from @PolishHeadlock2 or @luckyshot

This stuff interests us but don't live day by day or poll by poll.

538 and the RCP averages give the best overall looks.

And right the problem doesn't appear to be Biden's polling numbers but GOP efforts to suppress the vote.

 

[Deleted member 457759]

Update 9/23:

According to CNBC, Biden's national lead is 9, up three points from the same poll earlier this month.

He continues to lead in all five of the closest "battleground" states:
Arizona: Biden 49, Trump 43
Michigan: Biden 51, Trump 43
Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 42

The tightest and most significant races continue to be Florida, where Biden is +2 and Pennsylvania, where Biden is up 3.

Accoring to fivethirty eight Pennsylvania has the greatest chance of being the deciding state.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517747-biden-leads-trump-across-six-battleground-states-poll

These are fake polls designed to deter and subvert confidence in Trump.

Pay no attention.

 

[Stop Being Greedy]

This stuff interests us but don't live day by day or poll by poll.

538 and the RCP averages give the best overall looks.

And right the problem doesn't appear to be Biden's polling numbers but GOP efforts to suppress the vote.

Yeah, I'm trying not to fall into that but it's getting harder the closer we get.

And that's definitely a huge concern as well, in addition to the idea that Trump won't concede if he does end up losing.

 

[andnowweknow]

This is a great point. If Trump could cut a deal to go have legal immunity in order to leave office quietly and go on with his OAN news career, I'm sure he would. But that possibility isn't on the table.

I've long thought that Trump's seeming inability to reach out to moderates was actually an acceptance on his part that he has very little real chance of winning the election. Even if Trumpers don't believe in polling, his advisors do and surely he is aware of his situation.

His leverage at the end of the day is his power over a large base of irrational supporters who, with a simple tweet, he can incite through rhetoric claiming their "victory" was stolen from them by...whatever, devil worshipping pedophile deep state BLM ETC...and he holds the ability to incite these unstable people to take their false, paranoid grievances into the streets. And it's well established a lot of these people have a lot of guns and already deeply distrust the state.

He can use his voice as a bargaining chip if he's backed into a corner of having to accept defeat..."give me immunity or I tell my cult base the truth was revealed to me and the deep state plan to enslave all my supporters is afoot"...

 

[IamStryker]

you did make a false claim. Its called a strawman and arguing in bad faith. you would not accept stated position. You did this in bad faith and near as i can tell out of pettiness and binary thinking.

You dont know what a strawman is nor do you know that I did anything in bad faith. You said you are voting for Biden and I said that means you are on that side. This is a very simple concept. Not agreeing is one thing but crying that I am lying or in bad faith is just pure nonsense. Since you cant let this go or listen to reason I'll be the adult and stop responding to your endless whining.

 

[luckyshot]

These are fake polls designed to deter and subvert confidence in Trump.

Pay no attention.

Washington Post came out with polls that have Trump +1 among likely voters in PA and FL today.

Are those also fake?

 

[terrapin]

You dont know what a strawman is nor do you know that I did anything in bad faith. You said you are voting for Biden and I said that means you are on that side. This is a very simple concept. Not agreeing is one thing but crying that I am lying or in bad faith is just pure nonsense. Since you cant let this go or listen to reason I'll be the adult and stop responding to your endless whining.

its not my side bud. its the lesser of two evils. i am on neither side.

 

[luckyshot]

Good. But this ABC/WaPo poll of PA an FL has me nervous. Trump campaign knows it is down to those two states, and they are pushing all their chips in.

 

[Oceanmachine]

This is a great point. If Trump could cut a deal to go have legal immunity in order to leave office quietly and go on with his OAN news career, I'm sure he would. But that possibility isn't on the table.

Dang reading that article. I am positive he will win now he has the tools to. It will be called before all mail is and be challenged for weeks.

You might find this article interesting and horrifying.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Reading that I think he will win for sure. He has so many tools to. The Republicans will go with election night and next day results which by all means will show him as the winner, he will only lose left wing states bad on election night and I predict Arizona. The Senate and 30 Republican states or so will back him. They hold the office and he has the DOJ and I assume Barr has the Feds under their control now. Good luck removing him. I doubt Esper and the Chiefs goes rogue especially with DOJ and Senate and states backing him. Ballots in NC,PA, and swing states will have issues for sure and not all counted.

 

[Crom Cruach]

That article, unless I missed something, seems to ignore the objective consequences of losing, not simply his inability as a narcissist to accept it for his own ego. He has objective legal and quality of life consequences that are very real if he is not president, and his biggest problem, is that he will have very few friends and an unusually large amount of powerful enemies.

I have always felt that "Election Rigging" is Trumps insurance policy to help with his narcissistic anxiety. Sure Hillary was rigging the election all along... until he won.

It's a way of him losing while claiming he won and his ego needs that otherwise he can't function.

The problem for me is that Trump is such a poor employer that the "best people" he can get for his administration are Industry grifters looking to make a quick buck (like de Vos & Kushner) and actual Neo-Nazis (like Bannon & Millar). Establishment Republicans who at least have a history of governance won't work for him.

These grifters and fascists don't have any allegiance to Americas democratic traditions and I'm worried they will push for a Trump Coup d'Etat (using the Courts). There is absolutely nothing in his 50 years of public life to say this wouldn't appeal to him or that he would have the integrity to put the country ahead of himself.

I saw that, in his latest press conference, he declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in answer to a question. Instead choosing to suck on his "election rigging" comfort blanket.

Has any American President ever declined to confirm they would uphold the law and the democratic institutions of the country.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

Interesting thread.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[luckyshot]

New Fox News
Biden +11 in Nevada (52/41)
Biden +5 in Ohio (50/45)
Biden +7 in Penn. (51/44)
https://www.foxnews.com/official-po...o-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania

It's interesting that we haven't discussed Ohio much. People had sort of presumed coming into 2020 that it had gone further to the right than either Pennsylvania or Florida and was now more like Indiana than like a swing state.

It wasn't that long ago that Ohio was the swing state par excellence and was a good few points "bluer" than Virginia or Colorado.

It's really crazy how quickly and drastically the electoral map has changed in the last 16 years.

 

[LangfordBarrow]

Still not sure what distinctions you are referring to. I am not defining you. Your vote is defining you.

Do you think you're some type of intellectual heavyweight? He's voting against Trump because the guy is corrupt and is eroding the separation of powers and our checks and balances. He's literally trying to appoint loyalists to positions of oversight and skipping the line of succession with "acting" loyalists.