Elections Ooof... New Poll Numbers... Getting Ugly for Trump? [Update]

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Trotsky said:
I'm guessing that, since you left it out, Biden doesn't have a commanding lead in Ohio?

I don't understand that state.
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To my knowledge there just hasn't been any recent polling there.
 
Madmick said:
There's been a 3-pts close in the average nationwide gap since it's widest at the end of June when support for BLM was strongest. Since then, support for BLM has cratered, with a growing majority of white Americans no longer supporting it, only a tiny advantage of independents saying they have a favorable view of #BLM or the protests, and a nearly perfectly split population overall. Every day the riots continue this figure continues to slide, and Biden is weakened by it. That's why many liberal rags are breathing a sigh of relief, or over-stating the significance of one round of polls as your OP does.

If reading the larger trends, there's no denying the event that has had the greatest impact has been the onset of the pandemic, so Biden is wise to keep this at the center of his campaign. Yet it would be foolish to ignore the ever-intensifying, widespread violence growing around the country among a dissatisfied minority that has even convinced a small few Sherdoggers another civil war is on the horizon. This is a :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: in Biden's armor. It has always been his race to lose. He can't denounce #BLM due to the support on his side of the aisle, because he would risk alienating Democrats and them not showing up to vote, so he is in a tough spot, because he will continue to bleed centrists, independents, and moderate (non-black) Democrats who read a new headline every day about protesters carrying out brutal attacks on civilians and policemen without provocation.

*Edit* LOL, oh that's right, our word filter censors:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
*Edit* Double LOL. Wow, there's actually an editorial about this topic:
https://apnews.com/4722f93c10a141d39ddb0a65aef16c49
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While all this may be true, if only 5% of Americans consider violence (blm or otherwise) their top issue... and more Americans trust Biden to handle it than Trump... how much does it matter?
 
luckyshot said:
There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of the violence in Portland and Kenosha on the presidential race.

There was even a narrative evolving-- based on a couple of outlier polls-- that Trump had largely closed the gap and the race was now a toss up.

The latest round of comprehensive, high quality national and battleground polling disputes this, however. In fact, if these numbers are right, Drumpf's "law and order strategy" has blown up like a bomb in Wily Coyote's face.

Some highlights of polls take after both conventions and the Jacob Blake violence:
-- Biden +8 in Minnesota
-- Biden +10 in Wisconsin
-- Biden +11 in Michigan
-- Biden +8 in Pennsylvania
-- Biden +3 in Florida
-- Biden + 2 in North Carolina
-- Biden +10 (!) in Arizona
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

A couple of things that make these numbers even worse for Dumpy Trumpy:
-- Usually the time right after conventions marks a high water point for the incumbant
-- Only 8% of voters say they are undecided. At this point in 2016, 20% of voters were still unsure
-- Only 5% of voters list "violence and crime" as their most important issue heading into 2020... fewer than responded with "education" or "climate change" and FAR fewer than said "healthcare" and "carona virus response" (still the top issues by far)
-- Even if Trump "succeeds" in reframing the election to be about public safety, far more Americans trust Biden on this issue than trust Trump.


So, to sum it up. Not lookined good for Donny. Still.

Krystal Ball has some perceptive commentary on these numbers:
-- It's laughably ridiculous for Trump to try to paint Biden as a radical ANTIFA candidate... and voters aren't buying such an obvious pile of shit.
-- The nation feels like it needs to heal. And no one thinks Trump is better equipped to lead to healing this than Biden is. Biden is actually a human being. And actually capable of compassion.
-- The nation feels like it needs stability. Trump is, has been, and always will be an agent of chaos, not one of stability. A great line, "Michael Moore memorably described Trump as a 'human Molotov Cocktail' being thrown at the system, but when people are throwing actual Molotov Cocktails, that doesn't seem like such a good thing."

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Hillary is still at 93%
 
luckyshot said:
While all this may be true, if only 5% of Americans consider violence (blm or otherwise) their top issue... and more Americans trust Biden to handle it than Trump... how much does it matter?
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It's been larger than a 10% drop in support from the peak, now, by some polls, and at least a 9% drop by most. How great the potential loss is hard to estimate because that peak was the first time it ever it reached majority support, and only came after a media blitz (including among pro sports organizations) in the wake of Floyd's case becoming a national focus. It has only taken a few months of rioting to pop that partisan bubble with a reality check. Trump trailed in the polls even when #BLM was still receiving majority disapproval in polling, so it's possible this is simply one of those issues that bullies its way to front and center when, in truth, most Americans really just don't care about it, and don't hold it as a priority. This is a fair characterization of issues that are largely driven by radical, fringe minorities.

"Defunding the police" was the rage for a whole month. Now, that conceptual measure is already dead in the water. Nobody is passing it.
 
luckyshot said:
While all this may be true, if only 5% of Americans consider violence (blm or otherwise) their top issue... and more Americans trust Biden to handle it than Trump... how much does it matter?
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What are your top 3 or 5 if you prefer issues this election ?
 
The operative word here is "violence". People still don't seem to understand that in a political climate where openly supporting Trump results in getting yelled at, attacked, shot at, blacklisted, etc... the majority would be afraid to tell a pollster that they would vote for Trump. Openly supporting Biden doesn't carry the same effect.

If they find people bold enough to admit they would, and the results are still not strongly in favor of Biden... then it means the fear tactics haven't worked in quelling the enthusiasm for his opponent, and when taking into account the silent majority which polls do not detect; means Trump is likely headed for a landslide victory, due to the significant enthuasiasm gap.
 
Gutter Chris said:
What are your top 3 or 5 if you prefer issues this election ?
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Strengthenig unions, expanding healthcare, believing in science, having an EPA not actually run by fossil fuel, and having a POTUS who in not a proto-Authoritarian all sounds good.

Rocco Siffredi said:
Hillary is still at 93%
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Keep posting this. You've got two more months to enjoy it.
 
JSnake said:
The operative word here is "violence". People still don't seem to understand that in a political climate where openly supporting Trump results in getting yelled at, attacked, shot at, blacklisted, etc... the majority would be afraid to tell a pollster that they would vote for Trump. Openly supporting Biden doesn't carry the same effect.

If they find people bold enough to admit they would, and the results are still not strongly in favor of Biden... then it means the fear tactics haven't worked in quelling the enthusiasm for his opponent, and when taking into account the silent majority which polls do not detect; means Trump is likely headed for a landslide victory, due to the significant enthuasiasm gap.
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This makes some sense to me if you are talking about putting up a lawn sign or wearing a t-shirt, but it makes absolutely no sense when it comes to taking a poll... which is by nature ANONYMOUS.

It makes as much sense to say people are afraid to admit their Trump support to a pollster as it makes to say that they are afraid to admit it online... or in a voting booth.

It also doesn't explain why/ how many states ARE "deep red" both in polling and in reality.
 
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Seems legit
 
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