Objectively speaking, Cyborg has not faced a grappler as good as Ronda, and Ronda has not faced a striker as good as Cyborg. At this point, the fight is a toss up.
Cyborg's chin has been tested, as we saw in the Baars fight. The same cannot be said for Ronda. We have no idea how she will react if Cyborg lands clean. Imo, if Cyborg hurts Ronda, she can finish her. However, if the fight goes to the ground, Cris losses an arm, imo.
You would have to be blinded by fandom/hatred to claim Cyborg does not hit hard. If Bethe fought Cyborg so recklessly, she would have been relived of consciousness in a similar fashion. Her hands are ridiculously slow, and her defense is non existent.