One variable in the Nate / Conor rematch that could change the outcome from the first fight

[Arm Barbarian]

Rewatching the fight several times, I did notice that McGregor was having some success attacking Nates lead leg with kicks.

He thwarted Nates rhythm temporarily and had him off balance a couple of times with his leg kicks.

Then he abandoned that for a "mano e mano" trading of hands, and head-hunting routine.

I will say this:

IF Conor can really focus on a sustained attack on Diaz' lead leg from the onset, and MAINTAIN it, he has a chance at winning this fight. He chops down Nates lead leg, and it takes away nearly ALL of his punching leverage - Even the jab, which was a crucial factor in the first fight.

With the lead leg chewed up, Conor will much more easily be able to dart in and out, and pot-shot Nate, without worrying about a hard counter in return.

Pay close attention early in the rematch to this. It may determine the outcome of this fight.

 

[BlastoiseDad]

I think Conor can definitely win this fight, although it's difficult to outright favor him, even as a huge fan. Anyone denying that he can beat Nate is delusional.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

kick a Diaz lead leg? damn, why hasn't anyone thought of that before?!?

you should check out the RDA/Diaz fight, TS. it's brutal.

 

[sirmorbach]

Agreed.

People around here are counting Conor out way too soon. He's not only talented, he's a smart guy and absolutely obsessed. If he comes up with the right strategy, he has a chance - and this strategy might be exactly what Mr. @Arm Barbarian brought in the OP.

kick a Diaz lead leg? damn, why hasn't anyone thought of that before?!?

If it was really that obvious and simple for every fighter, regardless of their personal characteristics and circumstances, everyone would do it and Nate would have the worst record in the history of the sport. Thread is right on point.

 

[TheNinja]

What you are saying is true and does make sense. The other variable that people may not consider if that Nate may try to take this to the ground where he has a HUGE advantage in skill and size.

I think if Nate was smart he'd do it. Although given his attitude and given that he likely wants to be Conor standing to impress the public and to "beat Conor at his own game" I can see Nate standing. He doesn't typically go for takedowns but I think he should at least threatening it a few times to keep Conor guessing.

 

[Sonny Qc]

Leg kicks
Pace himself
No panic wrestling

he need those 3 things if he want to have a chance

 

[Arm Barbarian]

kick a Diaz lead leg? damn, why hasn't anyone thought of that before?!?

you should check out the RDA/Diaz fight, TS. it's brutal.

What RDA did to Nates leg in that fight should be a crime. lol. His thigh looked like it had been ran over by a semi-truck.

 

[ortizgnp]

He should try spinning leg kicks. Maybe those will land.

:>

 

[Coconutwater]

I think Conor can definitely win this fight, although it's difficult to outright favor him, even as a huge fan. Anyone denying that he can beat Nate is delusional.

I agree.

I favor Nate, I want Nate to win, but Conor has more than just a fighter's chance of winning. If Conor uses his own lead leg to jab at Nate's lead leg, he can maintain distance and make it hard for Nate to just follow him around. This will make Nate more manageable. This combined with Conor not throwing 100% into every shot will cause this fight to look somewhat different IMO.

 

[RJ43]

The early training footage for 200 showed Conor working on kicks so I am hopeful.

I totally understand why people think this is a pointless fight. Nate wrecked him on two weeks, he will likely be even more effective this time.

That said, I think Conor is simply too smart and too motivated to make the same mistakes again. I expect a much more patient, calculated, and VARIED approach from Conor this time.

Conor will always be at a disadvantage on the ground with Nate. I think Conor can hold his own on top and in certain positions off his back, but it's not an avenue for victory for him. The good news for Conor is that Nate will gladly box him all night if he can.

His avenue for victory, IMO, is Nate's lower half as you've mentioned. If he attacks that lower half repeatedly, I think it will open up much cleaner head shots that can lead to Nate's downfall.

 

[Team Sleep]

Rewatching the fight several times, I did notice that McGregor was having some success attacking Nates lead leg with kicks.

He thwarted Nates rhythm temporarily and had him off balance a couple of times with his leg kicks.

Then he abandoned that for a "mano e mano" trading of hands, and head-hunting routine.

I will say this:

IF Conor can really focus on a sustained attack on Diaz' lead leg from the onset, and MAINTAIN it, he has a chance at winning this fight. He chops down Nates lead leg, and it takes away nearly ALL of his punching leverage - Even the jab, which was a crucial factor in the first fight.

With the lead leg chewed up, Conor will much easier be able to dart in and out, and pot-shot Nate, without worrying about a hard counter in return.

Pay close attention in the rematch early to this. It may determine the outcome of this fight.

That has always been the gameplan vs both Diaz brothers, but the problem is that Conor is always off balance after he throws those chopping leg kicks, so at best he may catch Nate with a jab. I think Nate finishes him again. But God I hope he doesn't stand there and eat shots the first couple of rounds again. Diaz or not, that shit can't be your gameplan.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

This thread http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/fact-southpaw-fighters-are-ideal-kickers-against-nate.3307907/ has some pretty funny sher-commentary about the quality of Conor's leg kicks....

 

[RJ43]

That has always been the gameplan vs both Diaz brothers, but the problem is that Conor is always off balance after he throws those chopping leg kicks, so at best he may catch Nate with a jab. I think Nate finishes him again. But God I hope he doesn't stand there and eat shots the first couple of rounds again. Diaz or not, that shit can't be your gameplan.

Well he should have a variety of attacks on Nate's lead leg. I really loved this particular one and was baffled when he abandoned it:

I mean this is not a fight ender by any means, but it helps Conor control distance without putting him in Nate's range of counter attack, and it keeps Nate guessing on Conor's entry. This kick alone has Nate backing towards the fence, which limits Nate's ability to lean back off Conor's punches and counter...which basically destroyed Conor in the first fight.

 

[CJohnny]

Rewatching the fight several times, I did notice that McGregor was having some success attacking Nates lead leg with kicks.

He thwarted Nates rhythm temporarily and had him off balance a couple of times with his leg kicks.

Then he abandoned that for a "mano e mano" trading of hands, and head-hunting routine.

I will say this:

IF Conor can really focus on a sustained attack on Diaz' lead leg from the onset, and MAINTAIN it, he has a chance at winning this fight. He chops down Nates lead leg, and it takes away nearly ALL of his punching leverage - Even the jab, which was a crucial factor in the first fight.

With the lead leg chewed up, Conor will much easier be able to dart in and out, and pot-shot Nate, without worrying about a hard counter in return.

Pay close attention early in the rematch to this. It may determine the outcome of this fight.

Attack the body.

Nate was hurt by that body shot in the 2 round. It was one of the shots that Nate did feel the most. And his cardio will definitely suffer from it too. So Conor should attack the body, the leg too, and late in the fight he should go for the finish.

That should work, I think.

 

[TheScorpionDude]

I enjoyed the Conor golden days as much as the next guy, but Conor isn't coming back the same, EVER.

Much like Anderson's, his fights rely on mental warfare and Conor's aura is gone.

On paper he might improve and cover some holes, not put everything in his punches, up his cardio, rely on leg kicks more... but the mental part was his biggest weapon.

 

[Seismic]

Good points OP and agree entirely. Watched the Dennis Siver bout again recently and holy shit did Conor absolutely batter him. I know it was 'only' Siver but Conor was so good in that fight, his variety of strikes froze Siver, who simply did not know what was coming next. Conor started headhunting with only the left hand against Nate and it was only then did Nate start avoiding Conor's shots and countering. If Conor doesn't implement a kicking strategy in the rematch the outcome will be the same but you have to believe he and his coach can see this is the route to victory.

 

[Toxxus]

I enjoyed the Conor golden days as much as the next guy, but Conor isn't coming back the same, EVER.

Much like Anderson's, his fights rely on mental warfare and Conor's aura is gone.

On paper he might improve and cover some holes, not put everything in his punches, up his cardio, rely on leg kicks more... but the mental part was his biggest weapon.

You have a point, but I feel it's over-stated. Conor didn't go on a 15 fight win streak with a 95% finish rate because of his "aura". He was kicking much ass and using his ridiculous over-the-top bravado to annoy his opponents into being overly aggressive.

Sure, his attempts to head-game Nate are off the table now, but that doesn't mean he can't learn from his ass-whuppin' and come back with a game plan more suited to the lanky southpaw than he had the first time.

 

[Coconutwater]

I enjoyed the Conor golden days as much as the next guy, but Conor isn't coming back the same, EVER.

Much like Anderson's, his fights rely on mental warfare and Conor's aura is gone.

On paper he might improve and cover some holes, not put everything in his punches, up his cardio, rely on leg kicks more... but the mental part was his biggest weapon.

I agree with so much of what you're saying, but IMO, Nate Diaz , well, both Diaz brothers seem to have the old-school let's just handle-it-like-men and box on our feet. They see leg kicking as some weak-form of fighting that only scared fighters would use. That said, they are sort of predictable and really slow on their feet.

The exact opposite of ring movement would be Frankie Edgar, Benson Henderson and Mighty mouse.

Even if Conor is messed up in his head, I still wouldn't give Nate no more than 70% chance of winning. Anything more than 65%-70% is ignoring Nate's lack of ring generalship.

Nate's got height, a monster chin, and good boxing/submission.

He's got no real kicks or wrestling or movement. His reach advantage makes up for some of these weaknesses.

 

[Dutch Rudder]

Kick him in the head....seemed to work for Thompson

 

[The guest]

I honestly don't think Conor is mentally strong enough to maintain his discipline ( like AB said...mano e mano ) against somebody with the skills and gas that Nate possesses.

You guys can debate this shit til the cows come home. My mind is made up.

Nate by sub in Rd 4.