Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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arrelione said:
I won't knock the play but I will say this. If you can't see how they lose you're not looking hard enough.

Like you said Pearsons chin is a concern but lets remember he arguably beat Barboza. Pearson is a solid fighter, especially when not fighting wrestler/grapplers. Felder haven't proven himself to be a 4-1 favorite over a veteran in my book.

I am actually going to play Dodson here. He won the first two rounds in their first fight and scored two knock downs in the second round. That fight should have been a draw.

DJ kicked Dodson in the balls and illegally kneed him in the face(Dodson complained about his vision after the knee). Whether or not a point should have been deducted is a moot point in a betting thread but I believe that knee did DAMAGE and Dodson slowed down after that.

Don't get me wrong I have my doubts about Dodson being able to go 25 minutes in the pace the little mouse is going to set but at +373 I'll take my chances with Dodson here for sure.
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I agree Pearson beat Barboza and i also agree Felder shouldnt be -350 but i wanted to lock the bet in before the odds worsen! Like you acknowledged i have serious concerns with Ross's chin and i am pretty sure Felder cracks it. Ross can take a while to get going too see the first rounds with Stout Maynard and Al very close rounds. He also can be a little inactive he was totally robbed against Sanchez and i lost a lot of money but he should have done more in that fight. I bet on Ross against Ryan Couture and i am sure i was having kittens as Couture won the first round. In the first round Felder can defo crack him and take advantage of this or it at least gives Felder round 1.

Agree partly about Dodson too hence why i said if Felder and AJ win i may hedge with Dodson by KO. However i think DJ has improved since their last fight more than Dodson. I know he had a year out but Dodson looked pretty poor to me in his last fight. He has to KO MM he will get outworked over 5 rounds.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I do need to watch tape but why Trinaldo? My memory says Laprise boxes him up on the feet.
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I think he will have more tools and ways to grind out a win. Def will watch tape but my initial thought is Trinaldo has showed despite age he is improving. His boxing has gotten a lot more technical, he picks his shots well, and is getting smarter and smarter about phasing the boxing into his grinding style. I see the stand up being close, but the difference being how well I see Trinaldo mixing in clinch control and takedowns throughout.
 
arrelione said:
I am actually going to play Dodson here.
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LEMONZEST said:
Sorry if this is a noob question...

Rebel Lion et al. What site do you guys prefer for live betting? Right now I only have a 5d account and probably can't afford 2 accounts.

When I try and live bet 5d all I see is ML, no props or anything else.
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I think Bookmaker has a solid Live Bet. I have an account with them but I haven't deposited with them yet. In the future I will but right now I have a local book on the side so I don't really need them at the moment.
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Right now I like AJ dec +660 (Ro4), Holloway UD dec +515 (Ro4), Pearson dec +525 (Ro4) for 100$ each.

I don't expect them to hit but the odds are just way off.

I would like thoughts regarding Pearson specifically. I think this fight hits the scorecards honestly. Pearson is reaching his ceiling as a MMA fighter. He can't deal with grapplers and prefers to stand. Felder is not guy that will pressure him with takedowns. Felder is tough as nails and Pearson has movement/defense standing. MMA judges don't really know how to score stand up fights so it could go either way.

MMAGF I know you have a good grip on Pearson's skills. Do you think he should be this big of a dog? Assume he's fully healthy and ready to roll.
 
Again, interested in Dodson (no scorecards). I'm thinking Mighty Mouse wins a decision or Dodson catches him early.
 
I have a feeling that MM is going to make a statement against Dodson.
 
arrelione said:
I won't knock the play but I will say this. If you can't see how they lose you're not looking hard enough.

Like you said Pearsons chin is a concern but lets remember he arguably beat Barboza. Pearson is a solid fighter, especially when not fighting wrestler/grapplers. Felder haven't proven himself to be a 4-1 favorite over a veteran in my book.

I am actually going to play Dodson here. He won the first two rounds in their first fight and scored two knock downs in the second round. That fight should have been a draw.

DJ kicked Dodson in the balls and illegally kneed him in the face(Dodson complained about his vision after the knee). Whether or not a point should have been deducted is a moot point in a betting thread but I believe that knee did DAMAGE and Dodson slowed down after that.

Don't get me wrong I have my doubts about Dodson being able to go 25 minutes in the pace the little mouse is going to set but at +373 I'll take my chances with Dodson here for sure.
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Actually agree on both. Likely playing both Pearson and Dodson when odds are reduced and sitting high.
 
jerryisgood said:
Again, interested in Dodson (no scorecards). I'm thinking Mighty Mouse wins a decision or Dodson catches him early.
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Yeah this actually looks really good. Going back and looking at Dodson's record he has never been submitted or stopped ITD. All his losses are once it hit the cards.

EDIT: JJ is still like -175 right now. Should we be hitting that now? Yall think it will go way up closer to fight time? It may be another one I wait and get the "no cards" bet.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Sorry if this is a noob question...

Rebel Lion et al. What site do you guys prefer for live betting? Right now I only have a 5d account and probably can't afford 2 accounts.

When I try and live bet 5d all I see is ML, no props or anything else.
Click to expand...

If you're from the US, only option you have is Bookmaker. If not, then sign up to bet365 and start killin' it.
 
Pearson is a counterstriker and Felder is a backhand spamming spaz
 
Would like to just appreciate everyone and thank everyone for posting these weeks/months.

I won big big in July, but have been getting raped this August and this Saturday. Most likely because I just looked at the odds and didn't study any of the fights.

Like picking in OSP just because he KO'd Shogun but deep down knowing that Glover would win. Just hoping that I would win, but when you do that it's a high chance you wont win.

So a few quick things I learned, instead of picking close fights where either guy could win, I should have applied a different strategy.

Examples of where I lost.

- Picked Duffee to win over Mir, but really these kind of fights you dont always have to go in and should have picked how to fight will go rather than who will win. So should have picked probably under 1.5 rounds.

-Went big on Sirwan Kakai this weekend, "hoping" he would win, but knowing that he would probably lose because of Frankies wrestling, I should have bet instead on over 2.5 rounds.

- Picked over 1.5 rounds on Glover/Osp, was just naive on OSP winning, dont really know why just because he had better odds lol, but as all of you posted that over 1.5 was a "lock". So should have listened to you guys instead of me being stupid and blind..

So what finally my lessons
(1)If you don't know who will a fight, like Duffee and Mir both could KO each other, pick how it will go.
(2) Dont get greedy
(3) Stay smart
(4) You dont always have to bet
(5) Never desperately hope to win, because the fight will go how it will go not how you hope.
(6) Listen to others as well
 
damn missed some good opening prop lines :(

just took these so far:

Not Johnson inside distance +215
Rivera wins by 3 round decision +295
 
PVZ opened with Ronda odds against Alex Chambers :icon_neut is it really that much of a mismatch?
 
Dirtey said:
Do you expect AJ to wrestle Manuwa?

If this stays standing both guys can catch each other, AJ should definitely be the favorite but unless you trust him to wrestle I wouldnt pay that kind of juice.
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If he needs to yes but i dont think he needs to. Manuwa can clearly bang but hes not a one punch knockout guy and AJ has never been KO'd. Manuwa hasnt stopped anyone clean in his UFC career and he can be really inactive in fights. I expect AJ to put Manuwa away on the feet and i think this is a terribke fight for Manywa.
 
How do you guys handle the withdrawal fees that all bookmakers seem to have?

For example, most seem to charge >$10 for a withdrawal, and all the withdrawal options are kind of off putting, like moneygrams or western unions.
 
Falufalump said:
How do you guys handle the withdrawal fees that all bookmakers seem to have?

For example, most seem to charge >$10 for a withdrawal, and all the withdrawal options are kind of off putting, like moneygrams or western unions.
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Really just gotta deal with it man. If your balance exceeds a certain limit most have a policy where they won't charge you. BM its $1k if im not mistaken

Luckily I work in an office w a fax machine and a scanner so the process isn't too much of a pain in the ass for me haha

EDIT btw if you are only getting a $10 fee for withdrawing consider yourself lucky. I know a lot of sites are much heftier. BM is $50
 
For UFN 74 thus far (betonline has only 3 fights out):
$10 on Story
$10 on Cote
$20 on Holloway
$10 on O2.5 Cote/Burkman
 
Joseph Budden said:
Really just gotta deal with it man. If your balance exceeds a certain limit most have a policy where they won't charge you. BM its $1k if im not mistaken

Luckily I work in an office w a fax machine and a scanner so the process isn't too much of a pain in the ass for me haha

EDIT btw if you are only getting a $10 fee for withdrawing consider yourself lucky. I know a lot of sites are much heftier. BM is $50
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Yeah 10 is nothing, betonline is way more.
 
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