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Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Aug 10, 2015.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Spreading money across rd 3, 4, and 5 was huge for me with Dillashaw and Glover. Def plan on doing this with Holloway too at those lines
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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  3. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Fucking praying the Lineker - Rivera line stays close to where it is. I LOVE Rivera in that fight especially at -110
     
  4. YuRikeyAmerican Orange Belt

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    I wouldn't be surprised to see a late TKO from Holloway. I think his pressure and volume are just going to be too much for Oliviera to take. I feel like Holloway will be able to avoid the take downs in the initial rounds, drag the fight into the deeper rounds and get a TKO on Oliveira. With that said, Oliviera is a slick grappler and if he can get Holloway to the ground, I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull of the submission. Oliviera is definitely a live dog in this fight. Might lay down a Holloway straight up and hedge it with an Oliviera by sub
     
  5. Card Silver Belt

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    I'm surprised to see Burkman a fav over Cote in Canada.
     
  6. Bet Me Guest

    Story + Oliveria in this one. Although Max more than likely takes it by KO/TKO
     
  7. jerryisgood Green Belt

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    Maybe I have to review more .. I like Riviera and all, but not as a favorite over Lineker.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Not too surprising and i'm actually tempted by Burkman's money line. Think this will be a very tough fight for Cote.
     
  9. Card Silver Belt

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    Anyone agree with this? Favorites on the left.

    Close fights:

    Rick Story -135 vs. Erick Silva
    Josh Burkman -130 vs. Patrick Cote
    Yves Jabouin > Felipe Arantes

    Semi-big favorites:

    Max Holloway -200 > Charles Oliveira
    Chad Laprise > Francisco Trinaldo
    Olivier Aubin-Mercier > Tony Sims
    Maryna Moroz > Valerie Letourneau
    Sean O'Connell > Misha Cirkunov
    Nikita Krylov > Marcos Rogerio de Lima
    Sam Stout > Frankie Perez
    Chris Beal > Chris Kelades
    Elias Silverio > Shane Campbell
     
  10. dcho8 Yellow Belt

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    I agree for the most part
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'm leaning towards Trinaldo and Pezao but other than that I agree. Need to watch tape on Perez and Campbell though don't remember them.

    Also feel the Holloway vs Oliveira fight will be close.
     
  12. jerryisgood Green Belt

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    I like Misha Cirkunov .. I hope he's an underdog but I doubt it.
     
  13. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I agree, especially after fights like MJ/Dariush is fresh in our minds. I think the "no cards" props are going to see a lot more action.

    Good idea from 5d
     
  14. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    I like Story over Silva but with Erick you never know. Maybe I pass and just enjoy it.

    I think Holloway is an awful matchup for Oliveira. Good TDD, good chin and better striking. More power too.
    Im betting on Holloway straight or via TKO.

    I have mixed feelings about Nikita Krylov: On one side I really like the guy. On the other hand I think despite being talented and with the perfect frame for 205, he really really sucks.
    I mean he looks like a killer on a fight (Nekdov, Harris) and then like a total amateur on others (Soa, OSP).
    What do you guys know about his rival? I dont remember watching him fight (I watch ALL UFC fights but cant remember him).

    Burkman-Cote and the over?
     
  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I do need to watch tape but why Trinaldo? My memory says Laprise boxes him up on the feet.
     
  16. arrelione Red Belt

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  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Oliveira struggles against good strikers as we know ( Edgar Cerrone Swanson). Holloway is an elite striker as we know from the Swanson fight. Oliveira survived against Edgar but Edgar isnt heavy handed and he drowned Stephens but Stephens does not have tdd like Holloway. Its always dangerous betting against Oliveira as he is one of very few who can beat anyone in an instant. However stylistically this fight favours Holloway a lot. You can guarantee yourself no loss by SU betting Holloway and hedging with Oliveira by sub. However if like me you are greedy just take Holloway SU.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2015
  18. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Few things,

    Rosholt's gassing in the 3rd really screwed up some big plays for me. I bet on him winning -3.5 rounds (Parlayed with Brunson -3.5 and Glover +110 500$/2000$). In my head I thought he'd have an easier time getting Tim Johnson to the floor but Tim being 265 really made a huge difference whereas Rosholt was only 240 lbs. I'll forever have a hard time capping HW fights.

    I actually thought Dariush/MJ could've gone either way not so much a robbery. I did however think that the judges were going to give the fight to MJ. I think people thought Benny was losing because he was flopping on his TD attempts, but on the contrary it actually helped him win the fight (see JDS/Cain 2). It opened up his striking and stopped MJ from being aggressive on him. The 2nd round was the very close round. After that round I saw Benny was +800.

    $30.00 $240.00 Win 8/8/15 11:59pm Live In-Play Fighting 1101 Beneil Dariush +800* vs Michael Johnson

    In hindsight I wish I would've put more lol but of course hindsight is 20/20. One line that I think EVERYONE including myself slept on was Dariush by decision peaking at +460! I don't know why I didn't play it [in a close fight] according to Rule of 4, instead I went heavy on Dariush (no scorecards) which was a push.

    Also another delightful Live-Bet I made, Chris Camozzi was -280 after the 2nd round. Kong Watson was deducted a point in that round and I almost spit out my beer when I saw the -280. I think the guys at the Live-Betting office were sleeping during the fight and didn't notice the groin kick. I poured on 560/200$ really quick.

    So times like these you might catch the books slipping with stupid mistakes. Another way to profit even if you're not a great capper or don't have a good grip on a certain fight. I also mentioned that OSP was going to have a strong 1st round and books made the mistake of putting Glover @ +125 Live-bet!!! OSP was visibly gassing too I don't know what they were thinking.

    Brb, new props are out I'm going to dissect them and come back
     
  19. Card Silver Belt

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    http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/6/1...mer-injury-wilkinson-misha-circkunov-mma-news

    Who is Misha Cirkunov?

    Fans of the Bloody Elbow Scouting Report have been hip to Misha Cirkunov for quite a while now. Leland and Smoogy highlighted him as a fighter to watch way back in 2012 as their #4 LHW prospect. Three years later and the 28-year old Latvian is still only 5 years into his career and a great pickup for the UFC. Cirkunov moved to Canada at the age of 13 and became one of the country's best young athletes, both in Judo and wrestling. On his way into MMA, Cirkunov began training in BJJ at Xtreme Couture Toronto and took gold in the 2007 ADCC North American trials. He still trains at Xtreme Couture and has logged a 9-2 record on the Canadian regional scene. Cirkunov was supposed to fight for WSOF late in 2014, against Teddy Holder, but the bout never came to fruition. His most notable career win is over UFC vet Rodney Wallace and has generally been taking on a solid level of regional competition lately. Adding to his strong resume, Cirkunov also has true light heavyweight size, standing 6' 4" and with the kind of physique that suggests he's cutting solid weight to get to 205.

    What you should expect:

    At least as of last year, Cirkunov was still a pretty wooden striker, who one broadcaster familiar with his career said has never really put much focus on his striking. It's too bad, because Cirkunov seems to have some good timing and reflexes and some natural power in his hands. But, with his multi-disciplinary grappling background supporting him, it's not surprising that he's not making a point of becoming a striker. The most important thing for Cirkunov is getting into the clinch, where he has a multitude of ways to bring the fight to the mat. Once there, it's easy to see how almost inhumanly comfortable he is, moving quickly and easily around his opponent as they attempt to struggle away from him.

    For a big, strong LHW, he grapples like a lightweight. That's really the essence of his game. Cirkunov is a clinch wrestler with strength and power, who absolutely knows how to move on the mat. He's a dangerous ground and pound artist from multiple angles and uses it to get submission positions. The only thing I'd say to his detriment is that he's so aggressive grappling that he's very willing to give up position for submissions. It's a rare enough skill set in the UFC that it may not cost him as much as it would in other divisions, but it'll be interesting to see if it ends up being a major gap in his game.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/12/toronto-mma-fighter-misha-cirkunov-aims-to-take-ufc-by-storm

    - “I can’t wait,” Cirkunov told the Toronto Sun recently, while teaching a Brazilian jiu-jitsu class at Xtreme Couture in Etobicoke. “I’m very excited.”
    - In June, Cirkunov was named head coach at Xtreme Couture in Etobicoke.
    - Cirkunov studied karate and judo as a boy growing up in Riga.
    - He won a national junior judo championship in 2003 and was also a national champion in freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling in 2005.
    - But it wasn’t until winning the nationals in freestyle wrestling again in 2006, after he had become a Canadian citizen, that he was finally able to represent his adopted homeland in the world championships in South Korea.
    - Cirkunov briefly moved to Las Vegas, where he worked Coleman, Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture and Forrest Griffin, among others.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Sorry if this is a noob question...

    Rebel Lion et al. What site do you guys prefer for live betting? Right now I only have a 5d account and probably can't afford 2 accounts.

    When I try and live bet 5d all I see is ML, no props or anything else.
     
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