Official UFN 73 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Dariush vs Johnson is an intriguing matchup. Dariush's specialty is his ground game, whereas Johnson is his stand up. Dariush has been tko'd once by a 10+ ranked fighter (Nijem) within the last year, whereas Johnson has been subbed couple times within the past 5 years.

Because Dariush is affliated with Kings MMA, his stand up will exponentially be improving. Johnson's ground game will probably improve but I still think, if Dariush can take him down, Dariush can sub him. I also think in the stand up department it will be pretty close but Johnson will have the edge.

There is something about middle eastern fighters maybe it's their heart to win, but you can never be so confident to pick against them. I have Dariush winning by decision or sub.
 
I can't see anyone being confident in Johnson if you watch his Jury and Madadi fights. You can argue that he's improved a lot, but that can be countered that he hasn't had matchups similar to that yet. It took me a while to warm up to Dariush, but I think he's a really good fighter now. I previously underestimated his striking and athleticism. He seemed like he'd be a BJJ guy that would run into trouble with sprawl and brawl guys, but he's shown he is comfortable standing and has better ability to get it to the ground than what I originally thought.
 
TonyJ said:
Just. popping in to give props to MMAGF on his Bigfoot win. Tremendous. I was entertaining a Soa play pre-line release, but his number was terrible. Goodfella's confidence in Bigfoot swayed me away altogether.

Thanks bro, to you and everyone else who gave me props for sticking my neck out to make this pick and admit to wagering so much money on it. If you go to MMAOB or BloodyElbow and look at their picks -- NONE even picked BF let alone advised a bet on him. However, if you looked ITT there were several posters who boldly chose Bigfoot and consequently profited nicely off the big chinned dog. This is what I love about the regulars and sharps ITT -- it is a easy to make simple picks of juiced up favorites or enter the fray after the event and boast. I mean, making good bets and sharing them with the community is why Oblivian created this thread.

For those of us who have the courage of our convictions to not only pick the winner but also bet on the dog and publicly admit to doing so while risking your credibility is definitely an audacious move because of "Sunday Morning Quarterbacks" calling them out, but this is not like the rest of SD where your prediction is bumped and everyone laughs at your foresight with their hindsight. Overall, the reason why we don't have too many "I told you so" posters ITT is because as soon as they show up they are ostracized faster than Napoleon was exiled to Elba by the French.

That said, I am not writing this because I think I am the sharpest capper ITT, (I am not, and I still. use this thread as my betting Bible) but rather I write this as a creed to incentivize other posters who have great capping ability to post their plays and their reasons for making them beforehand to help others ITT make money -- our ultimate goal. It will help for posters to not only make a play but also write a brief synopsis on why you are making your pick -- this is a great contribution to the thread.

Summarily, my advice to any lurkers who think they can contribute to do so and for the regulars who don't post brief b/d's to do so -- even if it is one paragraph. Lastly, I implore everyone ITT to go out on the limb more often when you have a good feel for a lucrative bet -- like they say, "The juiciest fruit is always on the end of the limb",

At any rate, I digress.
 
I will have to take Dariush at + odds. Decision or submission who knows but Dariush has the value here.
 
Dariush got his black belt in ju jitsu within 5 years, also has an black belt in muay thai, has over 50 bjj competitions where he came in 1st, 2nd or 3rd still only 26.

Has a solid fighting style loves to counter with punches works on trips during clinches and has good grappling, looks to get the fight to the ground to use his excellent ground game skills.

You're forgetting 1 thing on his resume....

method=get&rs=80&q=75&x=-1&y=-11&w=240&h=320&ro=0&s=ramsey-nijem.jpg
 
Anyone have any info on who Glover has been training with? If hes still running his own camp i'll take OSP

Looking through his Twitter and the Glover Teixiera MMA camp, I think I can say he has been training at his own camp. I don't know who he has een training with though.

My take on Glover is that he is mid-level gate keeper at best with a padded record. He is a dirty boxer. Glover is 35 years old and with age, your chin will deteriorate. Glover does seem to have decent cardio though and could win this if it goes past the third.
I'm favoring OSP and he is an underdog atm.

Uriah Hall is a 8/25 or -310 which sounds about right but the closer we get the more I think he is gonna lose another split decision.
 
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Yea I was away fishing all of last week but read a bit her and managed to go 4-0 just tailing people and betting Ronda r1 hard.

Well done guys.
 
What are the chances of Kakai upsetting Saenz? Saenz is coming off a huge win and I do like his line as a slight favorite.
 
You're forgetting 1 thing on his resume....

method=get&rs=80&q=75&x=-1&y=-11&w=240&h=320&ro=0&s=ramsey-nijem.jpg

It still feels surreal :redface:

I oddly like Nijem despite his faults and he beat an 11-0 undefeated fighter in his last fight but was robbed of an decision!

What makes the mj/dariush fight tricky to predict and exciting is both guys have improved much over the last year or two.
 
You're forgetting 1 thing on his resume....

method=get&rs=80&q=75&x=-1&y=-11&w=240&h=320&ro=0&s=ramsey-nijem.jpg

Fight was also stopped a little late. If MJ could pressure forward like Ramsey then it could be finished in the first. The knee he threw just before Ramsey's left hook hit was a little sloppy. But he is from KINGS MMA and his striking will improve all the time.

EDIT: Another thing that favors MJ is that Daruish is a relaxed fighter with low hands. MJ with his good timing could hit Dariush and finish him quick.
 
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What are the chances of Kakai upsetting Saenz? Saenz is coming off a huge win and I do like his line as a slight favorite.

I was fairly impressed with Kakai in his debut. Quite a few people were high on him prior to the debut as well. Scary to bet against him IMO.
 
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Kakai is solid.

Probably a top3 talent to ever come out of Sweden I would guess. Chin is a little shaky but he's very well rounded and is finally with a really solid camp and has decent size for the weight class.
 
What is Kakai's background? Wrestling? BJJ? Striking?

Saenz completely neutralized the dangerous BJJ of Alcantara and was able to hold his own in the striking as far as I can remember.
 
Fight was also stopped a little late. If MJ could pressure forward like Ramsey then it could be finished in the first. The knee he threw just before Ramsey's left hook hit was a little sloppy. But he is from KINGS MMA and his striking will improve all the time.

EDIT: Another thing that favors MJ is that Daruish is a relaxed fighter with low hands. MJ with his good timing could hit Dariush and finish him quick.

Just because Nijem tko'd him does not mean Dariush has a weak chin. This guy is durable and I absolutely disagree that MJ will finish him early. I really like Dariush as underdog and might bet big on him.
 
I feel Dariush is much better than J Lau and we saw what he did to Jim Miller. I don't believe MJ can do the same thing he did to J Lau. A lopsided decision win for MJ would not be nice to watch after putting a bet on Dariush but I don't feel like that will be the case.
 
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bloody elbow have a nice piece on Who is Geane Herrera?

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/8...s-ray-borg-fox-16-steele-vs-cummings-mma-news

Very tricky to find tape but from the 1 fight they linked and is also found on YT he does seem to struggle with strong grapplers and wrestlers, quick glance over his record all tin cans guys with more Ls then Ws, bloodyelbow also said his ju jitsu is different or a pure version which geane claims is better for defence. I think Rays who showed good strong wrestling (single leg take down) and good scrambling and sub attempts in his last 2 fights alone, would have to favour borg here.
 
I'm starting to think I should stay away from this card, the main and co main are pretty tough to call and both fights could go either way. Does anyone know much about the guy Uriah Hall is fighting?
 
Okay new proposition bet is a bit of a game changer. The "no scorecards" thing. I think Glover's looks good and Dariush's "no scorecard" will look good seeing how he is the underdog. Be prepared for that in the next coming days.

Why? I think Benny has a higher chance of finishing than MJ does. I'm the event it hits the cards you'll push.

I can't believe Glover's decision line inflated back up to 900. That to me looks off. I'ma make another play on that. I need to catch up with glover though and see what he's up to. I always thought he had really tough cuts to 205. If he's taking care of his health and prepares well I think I'm going to side with him.

OSP I really like that his style is awkward. He has natural athletic abilities so he gets away with his awkward style with explosive movements and good footwork. He tricked Shogun like a switch hitter and shuffled his lead foot to hit him with that counter 1 hitter quitter. But I think he has about 2 rounds with that style to knock glover out. If he doesn't catch him within 2, I think it's safe to say Glover is "onto him" and understands the rhyme and reasons of OSP's style. If someone as deficient as Bader can figure it out then I don't see why Glover can't.

Glover looked bad against back taker Phil Davis but OSP is not the same fighter as Davis I don't see the same thing happening.

When it comes to the stand up I think glover will have better combinations while OSP has good counters and he utilizes every inch of his range but he's not going to want to go toe 2 toe with Glover so I feel glover will have the ability to pressure OSP and take the center of the octagon. But OSP can fight backwards too I won't say that it will be a huge disadvantage for him but he's going to have to play matador.

On the ground, Tex has underrated wrestling and he can definitely control a person there with GNP. He's competed in ADCC matches before. OSP though has this uncanny ability to just land on top whenever he gets taken down. To describe his scrambling ability, I'd say he has cat like reflexes.

Just some random thoughts I'm throwing out there for this fight. It's a pretty good match up so I'm not 100% on a bet on either side but my interpretation can even be used to make a case for OSP.
 
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