Official UFN 59 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[ninjadeathcult]

At -411, I think Anderson is the epitome of parlay fodder as I cap him around -900. I see little to no way Nick wins this fight save for a freak injury. I believe a l reel finish is likely here for Silva given he has 5 full rounds to put Diaz away.

Mate I think the sharp move is to pass this fight , you say Anderson Silva should be -900 and prior him getting his leg broken off I would of agreed with you, but the long layoff and serious injury make getting an accurate gauge on how he will look impossible.

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

 

[EzFlyer]

You're giving him good odds.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fight doesnt happen though.

you m ean my bet from 3/16/13 might finally get graded!?

ONLINE
03/16/2013
07:38 AM
[Ticket #: xxx] STRAIGHT BET
01/31/2015 @ 04:18 AM MU
[37499] YES- NICK DIAZ GETS CUT PK+1500
(YES- NICK DIAZ GETS CUT vrs NO- NICK DIAZ NOT CUT)

 

[ninjadeathcult]

MMA Goodfella vs. PuertoRican

If Anderson Silva wins, I will change my Sherdog quote area to whatever you want for 30 days. If Nick Diaz wins, you will change your Sherdog quote area to whatever I want for 30 days.

Where you at Goodfella, where you at???

Thats a pretty high risk bet PR . Should be Anderson Silva ITD/Not Anderson Silva ITD to at least give you a fair shot of Winning.

 

[EzFlyer]

Bettors generally have fairly short memories. The most recent thing people remember about Bendo is him getting knocked out. The most recent thing people remember about Cowboy is that he's won 6 fights in a row. Plus he's become a bit of a rock star, fan favorite guy (and why wouldn't he be, he's entertaining as hell to watch).

Add to that the fact that for people that remember that both of their WEC fights were extremely competitive and that the general perception is that Cerrone has improved more since then than Bendo has and I think you'll actually see a pretty close line. I'm guessing Bendo -130 to -140, Cerrone +110 to +115.

I seriously hope that I'm wrong and that Bendo is a bigger favorite so I can hammer Cowboy's line. The BIGGEST difference between now and their first two fights is that Cerrone has better tdd than he did. Bendo just putting him on his back and dry humping him to a decision win is FAR less likely these days.

nitpicking a point here, not terribly relevant, but wanted to just say:

bendo-cerrone II was not competitive. cerrone quit sooo fast, it was sooo weird.

don't read into that, mind you, for my lean.

 

[edhan]

Mate I think the sharp move is to pass this fight , you say Anderson Silva should be -900 and prior him getting his leg broken off I would of agreed with you, but the long layoff and serious injury make getting an accurate gauge on how he will look impossible.

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

I see what you did there

 

[mkess101]

nitpicking a point here, not terribly relevant, but wanted to just say:

bendo-cerrone II was not competitive. cerrone quit sooo fast, it was sooo weird.

don't read into that, mind you, for my lean.

You're right, it was a quick guillatine, and a weird fight. I tend to think Cerrone's head was not in a good place then. That was before the sports psychiatrist and all that other stuff he's done to correct his mental issues. It's REALLY hard to imagine anything like that out of Cowboy these days.

Good call on the correction, if I'm going to post thoughts they should be accurate, regardless of how little relevance they probably have on this fight.

 

[Dirtey]

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

Im with you here. There are way to many question marks on Silva for paying that kind of juice.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I like Tibau at his current odds a lot. Parke has only fought low tier UFC fighters so far, and he struggled against Santos. Santos out-struck him in the first, and for the second and third round Parke reverted to hugging Santos against the fence and doing nothing. No way he will be able to do that to the LW monster that is Tibau. Parke also has no power so I don't see him being able to keep Tibau on the backfoot where Tibau struggles. I see Tibau landing the power shots and bullying Parke. Parke could stick and move to win the third round if Tibau gasses as is the norm but worst case I see a 29-28 decision for Tibau. As Parke hasn't been tested yet we don't know what he is like when faced with adversity. He has also completed this camp in Ireland and not at Alliance.

Think Tibau beats Parke quite easily, but as O said, you never no w/ him, sometimes b/c he fights down to the level of his competition. Essentially, he is a fighter who is unpredictable because of his massive weight cut. Basically, if he has a good cut he fights great as he comes in light, more athletic and explosive w/ quicker punches. like he did vs Varner and RDA -- but if he has trouble w/ the cut he is the slow plodding Gleison we got vs. Khabib and Dunham. What's more, you are taking a big risk on him as he is the ultimate decision and s/d fighter. Even seemingly clear wins go to s/d's -- e.g. Piotr Hallmann. In fact, 8 his last 11 fights were by decision w/ 5 of them being split. Frankly, it probably should have been 6 split decisions out of 11 fights as I thought he defeated Khabib or at least deserved a split.

Going back to him fighting down to the level of his competition - he even went to a s/d with an outmatched Kurt Pellegrino ffs.

Nevertheless, I think he's a good bet at - 135 and the over 2.5 is basically a lock.

nice job! i hesitated too much and didnt play felder
Surely you can take off the 3x thing as you would certainly take it off as a winner.
Cowboy and Jones fights saved me from disaster caused by fucking Dufresne and I made like 2u... Whats the move for the near future tho?

Sadly, there are asses who would think I was lying, so I'll just chalk it up to my error.

Hey someone help me out... sup with Louis Taylor?

I'll do a modest b/d tom for you. k?

Cowboy is a wild fuck. Wonder what these odds look like.. Cowboy with so much momentum and Bendo off that loss makes this interesting. How do you guys think the short notice impacts this? Does it hurt Bendo in prep?

I don't think that it will impact Bendo in his training or strategy much at all since Alvarez was a striker as well. Also, b/c he's already fought Cowboy twice in the WEC he is intimately familiar with his style having trained for him x 2. So this isn't some surprise fighter/

Take an easy over on Cerrone vs Bendo.

Would think so, but look what happened w/ RDA/Pettis

How is Bendo's confidence?

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I'll wait for your b/d with gifs, but I can't imagine laying the juice here.

First, I have no idea what kind of Silva we'll even see. Has he (like so many great fighters and boxers before him) gotten old overnight? Maybe not, but is his heart still truly in it, or is he fulfilling his contract and taking fights that will pay him well before retirement?

And I really don't see him finishing Diaz. Like I said (and glad you used Leben as the example), Diaz just doesn't commit to his punches at all. He stands tall but throws out little jabs nonstop and though he's moves forward it's never more than a little at a time and there's no lunging or throwing power shots. Silva made Leben, Forrest, etc. look stupid because they threw big power shots that were way too slow and their chins were there for him to hammer. Just don't think you'll see that with Diaz. Plus he is insanely hard to finish. The thing that honestly makes me most nervous is the amount of scar tissue he has. If he does get hit enough by Silva I can see him being a bloody mess and the fight being stopped on cuts.

Also, I find Nick to be super annoying and childish. So if I bet the over (which I think will be the best bet of the fight) with a small play on Diaz, then I only lose if Silva stops him. And if that's a highlight reel KO like you say, I'll just look at it like I paid to see Diaz get put away.

Yeah, re: Leben, I don't mean that he will walk right into Anderson's punches like a drunken zombie, but Nick is not a quick fighter and is going to be available for plenty of flush strikes. Essentially, the quick limbs of Anderson will sneak through and he'll get hit with hard shots and high head kicks as we saw Carlos Condit land. Certainly Anderson isn't going to bed the same fighter he was in his prime, but Andy is not facing a guy who who will be able to take advantage of the vulnerabilities of an older fighter such as their lack of speed and reflexes. You will start seeing Anderson pay for his age against fighters like Luke Rockhold and his teammate Jacare -- maybe even a Derek Brunson. But Nick is not that guy IMO.

In fact what is Nick's best win in his last 11 fights dating back 6 years? Here are Nick's last 11 victories:

B.J. Penn, Paul Daley, Evangelista Santos, K.J. Noons, Hayato Sakurai, Marius Zaromskis, Frank Shamrock, Thomas Denny, Muhsin Corbbrey, Katsuya Inoue, and Mike Aina in order of most recent.

Which of them are even in the same stratosphere as Anderson is? Save for an old BJ Penn who was out of his weight class the answer is NONE.

He wasn't competitive w/ GSP, couldn't catch up with in NBK as he didn't know how to cut angles, and even BJ hit him loads of times. FFS, the Aina fight was SUPER close (maybe an Aina win), he was sliced up by a KJ Noons in their first fight, and was put on his ass vs Semtex .

I like Nick as a fighter, but this record is soft, and I think he's quite overrated.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Yeah, re: Leben, I don't mean that he will walk right into Anderson's punches like a drunken zombie, but Nick is not a quick fighter and is going to be available for plenty of flush strikes. Essentially, the quick limbs of Anderson will sneak through and he'll get hit with hard shots and high head kicks as we saw Carlos Condit land. Certainly Anderson isn't going to bed the same fighter he was in his prime, but Andy is not facing a guy who who will be able to take advantage of the vulnerabilities of an older fighter such as their lack of speed and reflexes. You will start seeing Anderson pay for his age against fighters like Luke Rockhold and his teammate Jacare -- maybe even a Derek Brunson. But Nick is not that guy IMO.

In fact what is Nick's best win in his last 11 fights dating back 6 years? Here are Nick's last 11 victories:

B.J. Penn, Paul Daley, Evangelista Santos, K.J. Noons, Hayato Sakurai, Marius Zaromskis, Frank Shamrock, Thomas Denny, Muhsin Corbbrey, Katsuya Inoue, and Mike Aina in order of most recent.

Which of them are even in the same stratosphere as Anderson is? Save for an old BJ Penn who was out of his weight class the answer is NONE.

He wasn't competitive w/ GSP, couldn't catch up with in NBK as he didn't know how to cut angles, and even BJ hit him loads of times. FFS, the Aina fight was SUPER close (maybe an Aina win), he was sliced up by a KJ Noons in their first fight, and was put on his ass vs Semtex .

I like Nick as a fighter, but this record is soft, and I think he's quite overrated.

Case sold.

Thanks MMAGF. I will pass on Silva/Diaz.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

You're giving him good odds.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fight doesnt happen though.

Me too.

MMA Goodfella vs. PuertoRican

If Anderson Silva wins, I will change my Sherdog quote area to whatever you want for 30 days. If Nick Diaz wins, you will change your Sherdog quote area to whatever I want for 30 days.

Where you at Goodfella, where you at???

Are you drunk?Is this PR? Hacked acct.? North Korea? :wink:

You got it lol. I'd even do a PP bet w/ you $30 if I win (Andy) $100 if you (Nick) win.

NDC & Tebowned are right PR.. you're crazy for this one!

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Case sold.

Thanks MMAGF. I will pass on Silva/Diaz.

lol your welcome O-dub, I'm telling you, you'll thank me once more AFTER this fight happens.

 

[PuertoRican]

[YT]s381r3gO-Kw[/YT]

Are you drunk?Is this PR? Hacked acct.? North Korea? :wink:

You got it lol. I'd even do a PP bet w/ you $30 if I win (Andy) $100 if you (Nick) win.

NDC & Tebowned are right PR.. you're crazy for this one!

Yes, I was actually semi-drunk when I wrote the post, but I already picked Diaz to win days before I started to drink. The bet stands.

gL yo~

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I see what you did there

I don't know if NDC was hat slick. lol Pretty awesome though.

Mate I think the sharp move is to pass this fight , you say Anderson Silva should be -900 and prior him getting his leg broken off I would of agreed with you, but the long layoff and serious injury make getting an accurate gauge on how he will look impossible.

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

I see where you're coming from, but I'll take Silva's championship intangibles, body of work, and intelligence to no whether he could come back 100% or not to defeat Nick Diaz.

I think people are looking at this far wrong. First off, Andy broke his leg, a clean break is ALWAYS better than a ACL/MCL tear so I think he'll be 100% fine in this regard. Second, he's not facing a big, strong MW or LHW; he is fighting Nick fucking Diaz. A WW who has no big wins, no real KO power save for his awesome chin check on Lawler circa 1876 when they were both kids, and who himself has not competed himself in almost TWO YEARS and just twice going on 3 years.

If Anderson were returning to face a Vitor or Rockhold, I'd DEFINITELY temper my expectations; however, styles make fights and if you could create a fighter who is stylistically perfect for Silva to beat -- Nick is that guy. `

 

[PuertoRican]

[YT]Vq7B2eUzkUA[/YT]

Good to know that Conor is wise with his money. /sarcasm

His girlfriend is probably happy that all those years as a kum-dump have finally paid off, and her boyfriend is spending all his money on her.

 

[12thMan]

I'll wait for your b/d with gifs, but I can't imagine laying the juice here.

First, I have no idea what kind of Silva we'll even see. Has he (like so many great fighters and boxers before him) gotten old overnight? Maybe not, but is his heart still truly in it, or is he fulfilling his contract and taking fights that will pay him well before retirement?

And I really don't see him finishing Diaz. Like I said (and glad you used Leben as the example), Diaz just doesn't commit to his punches at all. He stands tall but throws out little jabs nonstop and though he's moves forward it's never more than a little at a time and there's no lunging or throwing power shots. Silva made Leben, Forrest, etc. look stupid because they threw big power shots that were way too slow and their chins were there for him to hammer. Just don't think you'll see that with Diaz. Plus he is insanely hard to finish. The thing that honestly makes me most nervous is the amount of scar tissue he has. If he does get hit enough by Silva I can see him being a bloody mess and the fight being stopped on cuts.

Also, I find Nick to be super annoying and childish. So if I bet the over (which I think will be the best bet of the fight) with a small play on Diaz, then I only lose if Silva stops him. And if that's a highlight reel KO like you say, I'll just look at it like I paid to see Diaz get put away.

I think Diaz gets murdered in this fight. This is a tune up fight for Anderson. Diaz is the absolute perfect stylistic match up for Anderson to come back and look great.

The UFC are feeding Diaz to the Wolves...

 

[vkram]

When do you guys think the lines up Bendo vs Cerrone will come out? In my opinion Bendo will be a slight favourite at around -140, what do you think?

 

[12thMan]

Mate I think the sharp move is to pass this fight , you say Anderson Silva should be -900 and prior him getting his leg broken off I would of agreed with you, but the long layoff and serious injury make getting an accurate gauge on how he will look impossible.

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

Silva's injury looked nasty, but most doctors and physiotherapists will tell you that an ACL tear is a much worse injury to sustain.

Silva's only been out a year. What makes you think he's going to look any worse than someone coming back from a bad knee injury? Just because we can't see something tear and break, it doesn't mean that it isn't just as bad or even worse...

 

[12thMan]

I don't know if NDC was hat slick. lol Pretty awesome though.



I see where you're coming from, but I'll take Silva's championship intangibles, body of work, and intelligence to no whether he could come back 100% or not to defeat Nick Diaz.

I think people are looking at this far wrong. First off, Andy broke his leg, a clean break is ALWAYS better than a ACL/MCL tear so I think he'll be 100% fine in this regard. Second, he's not facing a big, strong MW or LHW; he is fighting Nick fucking Diaz. A WW who has no big wins, no real KO power save for his awesome chin check on Lawler circa 1876 when they were both kids, and who himself has not competed himself in almost TWO YEARS and just twice going on 3 years.

If Anderson were returning to face a Vitor or Rockhold, I'd DEFINITELY temper my expectations; however, styles make fights and if you could create a fighter who is stylistically perfect for Silva to beat -- Nick is that guy. `

I wrote my last post and then saw this post where you said the same about knee injuries.

I was expecting to get heavily criticized over that comment, so I'm glad you agree with me!

Most doctors and physiotherapists will tell you that it's much harder to recover from bad knee injuries than a leg break...

 

[ninjadeathcult]

I don't know if NDC was hat slick. lol Pretty awesome though.

NDC is incredibly slick ...I'm like Slick Rick in an ice rink. Don't let my poor grammar and punctuation throw you off

I see where you're coming from, but I'll take Silva's championship intangibles, body of work, and intelligence to no whether he could come back 100% or not to defeat Nick Diaz.

I think people are looking at this far wrong. First off, Andy broke his leg, a clean break is ALWAYS better than a ACL/MCL tear so I think he'll be 100% fine in this regard. Second, he's not facing a big, strong MW or LHW; he is fighting Nick fucking Diaz. A WW who has no big wins, no real KO power save for his awesome chin check on Lawler circa 1876 when they were both kids, and who himself has not competed himself in almost TWO YEARS and just twice going on 3 years.

If Anderson were returning to face a Vitor or Rockhold, I'd DEFINITELY temper my expectations; however, styles make fights and if you could create a fighter who is stylistically perfect for Silva to beat -- Nick is that guy.

Silva's injury looked nasty, but most doctors and physiotherapists will tell you that an ACL tear is a much worse injury to sustain.

Silva's only been out a year. What makes you think he's going to look any worse than someone coming back from a bad knee injury? Just because we can't see something tear and break, it doesn't mean that it isn't just as bad or even worse...

@MMAGF & 12th man - Fella's! as i said I am not making a case for betting Diaz I am simply saying that making a bet on Silva is not a smart idea at -400 either SU or in a parlay.

I don't know shit about what is worse ..a torn ACL OR a broken leg but what I do know is a screaming Anderson Silva was stretched out of the octagon in his last fight, prior to that he got KTFO and made puzzling comments about Chris being the champ now.

I'm not comparing Diaz to Weidman in any way but if I am looking at paying a lot of juice on someone or adding a -400 to a parlay no way in fuck is that person is going to be coming off a serious injury even against a Welterweight.

There are better spots for betting a -400 and I stand by that...You don't have to bet every fight you know