Official UFN 59 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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soooooo annoyed that alvarez is out. i was LOVING +200.
 
NBA Tonight
3 Team Teaser - 8 points teased

Los Angeles Lakers +21

Oklahoma City Thunder +11
 
Take an easy over on Cerrone vs Bendo.
 
i'm expecting cerrone to open as a slight dog.
 
Bendo loses 1 fight and suddenly he is not the guy who beats everyone but the champion....
 
Although Bendo's got history on his side, his chin has been untested since he was dropped. That's a scary thought against cowboy.Not sure what to think about this one.
 
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SalvadorAllende said:
Bendo loses 1 fight and suddenly he is not the guy who beats everyone but the champion....
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Oh yeah, all those fights he "won"... I remember those. But really Benson has always been overrated. Maybe a bad style for Cowboy though, we will see.
 
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OneWarrior1 said:
I believe that speed kills and Rashad is faster than Glover but then I remember Rashad's fight with Lil Nog and has me second guessing. If the over is juicy enough, that might be a good bet or a goes the distance bet.
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And hia fight w/ Hendo was waaaaaaaaaaay to close for comfort in the striking dpt.

Now, having said that, Rashad should win, but the way he has been fighting lately I worry that he loses a close decision. I honestly can't say who wins this fight.
 
Jeffplsgo said:
Oh yeah, all those fights he "won"... I remember those. But really Benson has always been overrated. Maybe a bad style for Cowboy though, we will see.
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Most of his high level fights are definitely debateable. But he still dominated Diaz, and basicly all his close decisions are against top5 guys. And afaik Cerrone have still not beaten anyone inside top5.
 
Bettors generally have fairly short memories. The most recent thing people remember about Bendo is him getting knocked out. The most recent thing people remember about Cowboy is that he's won 6 fights in a row. Plus he's become a bit of a rock star, fan favorite guy (and why wouldn't he be, he's entertaining as hell to watch).

Add to that the fact that for people that remember that both of their WEC fights were extremely competitive and that the general perception is that Cerrone has improved more since then than Bendo has and I think you'll actually see a pretty close line. I'm guessing Bendo -130 to -140, Cerrone +110 to +115.

I seriously hope that I'm wrong and that Bendo is a bigger favorite so I can hammer Cowboy's line. The BIGGEST difference between now and their first two fights is that Cerrone has better tdd than he did. Bendo just putting him on his back and dry humping him to a decision win is FAR less likely these days.
 
I might play Bendo of he comes as a moderate fav. Jury took Cerrone down easily in the first round (only to get reversed and body triangled, but I dont see that happening with Bendo against Cowboy).
 
mkess101 said:
Bettors generally have fairly short memories. The most recent thing people remember about Bendo is him getting knocked out. The most recent thing people remember about Cowboy is that he's won 6 fights in a row. Plus he's become a bit of a rock star, fan favorite guy (and why wouldn't he be, he's entertaining as hell to watch).

Add to that the fact that for people that remember that both of their WEC fights were extremely competitive and that the general perception is that Cerrone has improved more since then than Bendo has and I think you'll actually see a pretty close line. I'm guessing Bendo -130 to -140, Cerrone +110 to +115.

I seriously hope that I'm wrong and that Bendo is a bigger favorite so I can hammer Cowboy's line. The BIGGEST difference between now and their first two fights is that Cerrone has better tdd than he did. Bendo just putting him on his back and dry humping him to a decision win is FAR less likely these days.
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I'm leaning cowboy too. Great minds think alike huh? :cool:
 
mkess101 said:
Skipping ahead and will repost/talk more about it for sure, but I have a very strong lean on Diaz/Silva.

I think the over (or fight goes to decison) will end up having terrific value if the books don't give it a crazy expensive price.

On first glance, Nick looks like a tailor made victim for Silva's counterstriking. Nick always moves forward, and Silva has feasted on guys that do that (especially, if like Nick, there's not much threat of a takedown). But the thing that makes Nick different is that he NEVER commits to throwing any of his punches with power. He doesn't sit down on them almost EVER, so his pitter patter jabs don't leave him too open to getting hit with huge counter shots as often as you'd think they would. He's hittable, but generally it's been by guys who are more willing to press the action and come at him. Silva prefers to sit back and counter, which is more difficult than you'd think vs. Diaz.

Throw in that Diaz is CRAZY tough to finish even when he does get tagged, has a terrific guard in case he ends up on his back, and I really see this fight going the distance.

And even though I actually think Diaz is a bit overrated overall, in some cases styles make fights (right Barry the heater?) We don't know for sure what we're getting in Silva with his comeback, so I may make a small play on Diaz su as well.

For those with the option, NOT Silva itd would be the play to make imo.
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I don't think I agree. I think it has he making of Leben/Silva (almost) with Andy being in total cruise control and choosing when and if he wants to put the pedal to the metal. Andy is just such a terrible matchup for Nick. He literally has EVERY single conceivable edge in fighting save for perhaps which Silva has never had an issue. We're talking size, strength, speed, power, athleticism, striking, wrestling, and I may call straight up grappling a draw but with his size and ability to strike, the edge goes Andy or push.

At -411, I think Anderson is the epitome of parlay fodder as I cap him around -900. I see little to no way Nick wins this fight save for a freak injury. I believe a l reel finish is likely here for Silva given he has 5 full rounds to put Diaz away.
 
ivanilich said:
I might play Bendo of he comes as a moderate fav. Jury took Cerrone down easily in the first round (only to get reversed and body triangled, but I dont see that happening with Bendo against Cowboy).
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Honestly, don't be so sure. And keep in mind Cerrone also stuffed a couple takedowns from Jury (Bendo is a better wrestler, but Cerrone has actually improved his tdd).

But let's say Bendo does have success taking him down...

Cerrone's guard game and overall grappling has improved a TON since the WEC days. He truly is a HIGH LEVEL blackbelt guy now, and is arguably among the most creative guys on the mat that you'll see. I'd argue his ground game is absolutely better than Pettis' ground game (though Pettis is of course still the better overall fighter) and we saw what Pettis was able to do from his guard vs Bendo in their last meeting.

Plus Cowboy has INSANE momentum behind him right now. The fact he's fighting so often without really taking much damage (zero damage vs Jury) means he'll almost for sure be the sharper fighter in Boston. It's one benefit of competing this often, basically the opposite of cage rust.

Of course everything depends on the line. I'm not arguing for a bet on Cowboy right now because...it's pointless when we don't have a line out yet. But my guess is the value will lie with him unless something surprising happens and he opens as the favorite.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
I don't think I agree. I think it has he making of Leben/Silva (almost) with Andy being in total cruise control and choosing when and if he wants to put the pedal to the metal. Andy is just such a terrible matchup for Nick. He literally has EVERY single conceivable edge in fighting save for perhaps which Silva has never had an issue. We're talking size, strength, speed, power, athleticism, striking, wrestling, and I may call straight up grappling a draw but with his size and ability to strike, the edge goes Andy or push.

At -411, I think Anderson is the epitome of parlay fodder as I cap him around -900. I see little to no way Nick wins this fight save for a freak injury. I believe a l reel finish is likely here for Silva given he has 5 full rounds to put Diaz away.
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I'll wait for your b/d with gifs, but I can't imagine laying the juice here.

First, I have no idea what kind of Silva we'll even see. Has he (like so many great fighters and boxers before him) gotten old overnight? Maybe not, but is his heart still truly in it, or is he fulfilling his contract and taking fights that will pay him well before retirement?

And I really don't see him finishing Diaz. Like I said (and glad you used Leben as the example), Diaz just doesn't commit to his punches at all. He stands tall but throws out little jabs nonstop and though he's moves forward it's never more than a little at a time and there's no lunging or throwing power shots. Silva made Leben, Forrest, etc. look stupid because they threw big power shots that were way too slow and their chins were there for him to hammer. Just don't think you'll see that with Diaz. Plus he is insanely hard to finish. The thing that honestly makes me most nervous is the amount of scar tissue he has. If he does get hit enough by Silva I can see him being a bloody mess and the fight being stopped on cuts.

Also, I find Nick to be super annoying and childish. So if I bet the over (which I think will be the best bet of the fight) with a small play on Diaz, then I only lose if Silva stops him. And if that's a highlight reel KO like you say, I'll just look at it like I paid to see Diaz get put away.:D
 
MMA Goodfella vs. PuertoRican

If Anderson Silva wins, I will change my Sherdog quote area to whatever you want for 30 days. If Nick Diaz wins, you will change your Sherdog quote area to whatever I want for 30 days.

Where you at Goodfella, where you at???
 
PuertoRican said:
MMA Goodfella vs. PuertoRican

If Anderson Silva wins, I will change my Sherdog quote area to whatever you want for 30 days. If Nick Diaz wins, you will change your Sherdog quote area to whatever I want for 30 days.

Where you at Goodfella, where you at???
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You're giving him good odds.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fight doesnt happen though.
 
NFL

Assuming we get the "all clear" on Rodgers (and with 2 weeks off, I think his calf will be fine) I like Green Bay Sunday. I know Dallas went 8-0 on the road, but Green Bay went 8-0 at home and pretty much destroyed everyone they played at Lambeau. They beat Detroit by 10 there to end the reg season, and it would have probably been by far more with a non-hobbled Rodgers for the whole second half (and he even missed a series).

Dallas really should have lost this past Sunday to Detroit. That obvious pass interference that they inexplicably just picked up the flag on (for what reason I still can't fathom) saved them in that game. Dallas will try to rely on their running game but Green Bay had a top 5 run defense the second half of the season so I wouldn't expect Murray to just run wild at all. And given that (and again, working under the assumption that Rodgers is fine) the Cowboys D will have a very slim chance of even slowing the Packer offense down, the Cowboys may end up having to abandon the run somewhat to play catchup anyway. I think with even a mostly healthy Rodgers, the Packers cruise. 38-20 Green Bay.
 
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