Official UFN 59 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[AP_RESURRECTION]

I believe that speed kills and Rashad is faster than Glover but then I remember Rashad's fight with Lil Nog and has me second guessing. If the over is juicy enough, that might be a good bet or a goes the distance bet.

yea its hard to see how rashad won't be tentative against a power striker with such a long delay

 

[wack3d]

mcgregor wins in round 3 or 4 +463 on unibet(possible small cover on round2) i could see it go like the swanson fight with mcgregor finishing late after siver starts to slow down.

also like larkin alot (praying his odds go up again) and tibau

 

[wack3d]

i see a few guys betting/leaning parke.. how do you see him winning this? i think tibau will bully him for most of the fight.. bigger,stronger, better wrestler.. and his cardio seems to have improved a bit lately.

 

[Jeffplsgo]

I know I've asked this before but if a fighter taps due to strikes do bookies call that TKO or Submission?

Varies, but usually a Submission (Yes, a lot of people get fucked on this - kinda shady)

Thatch on Thiago being a recent example

 

[OneWarrior1]

Skipping ahead and will repost/talk more about it for sure, but I have a very strong lean on Diaz/Silva.

I think the over (or fight goes to decison) will end up having terrific value if the books don't give it a crazy expensive price.

On first glance, Nick looks like a tailor made victim for Silva's counterstriking. Nick always moves forward, and Silva has feasted on guys that do that (especially, if like Nick, there's not much threat of a takedown). But the thing that makes Nick different is that he NEVER commits to throwing any of his punches with power. He doesn't sit down on them almost EVER, so his pitter patter jabs don't leave him too open to getting hit with huge counter shots as often as you'd think they would. He's hittable, but generally it's been by guys who are more willing to press the action and come at him. Silva prefers to sit back and counter, which is more difficult than you'd think vs. Diaz.

Throw in that Diaz is CRAZY tough to finish even when he does get tagged, has a terrific guard in case he ends up on his back, and I really see this fight going the distance.

And even though I actually think Diaz is a bit overrated overall, in some cases styles make fights (right Barry the heater?) We don't know for sure what we're getting in Silva with his comeback, so I may make a small play on Diaz su as well.

For those with the option, NOT Silva itd would be the play to make imo.

I like that, but I'll do it one riskier and say that Diaz ML is worth a small stab. Add to the fact that you say Diaz is crazy to finish, Diaz can win a decision based on volume, octagon control. Yes, I'm on drugs. :icon_chee

 

[Sham5916910]

I like Tibau at his current odds a lot. Parke has only fought low tier UFC fighters so far, and he struggled against Santos. Santos out-struck him in the first, and for the second and third round Parke reverted to hugging Santos against the fence and doing nothing. No way he will be able to do that to the LW monster that is Tibau. Parke also has no power so I don't see him being able to keep Tibau on the backfoot where Tibau struggles. I see Tibau landing the power shots and bullying Parke. Parke could stick and move to win the third round if Tibau gasses as is the norm but worst case I see a 29-28 decision for Tibau. As Parke hasn't been tested yet we don't know what he is like when faced with adversity. He has also completed this camp in Ireland and not at Alliance.

 

[mkess101]

I like that, but I'll do it one riskier and say that Diaz ML is worth a small stab. Add to the fact that you say Diaz is crazy to finish, Diaz can win a decision based on volume, octagon control. Yes, I'm on drugs. :icon_chee

Nope I think you're spot on, that's why I said I might make a small play on Diaz su (moneyline).

And given the way the UFC is hyping the "Return of the Spider" in the promos and Diaz is actually only in some of them, I think we may get an even better line on Diaz as the fight gets closer. I think he's probably worth a small play at +300, but I could honestly see him climbing up to +350 or possibly even in the +400 range.

People want to believe they are getting the Silva of 2010-2011 but the reality is that fighters age overnight more than in any other sport by far. Maybe Silva hasn't, but I absolutely cannot imagine laying the juice on him given what we saw his last two times out. I realize Diaz isn't Weidman or even close, but I actually think he's a live dog here.

 

[Oblivian]

I like Tibau at his current odds a lot. Parke has only fought low tier UFC fighters so far, and he struggled against Santos. Santos out-struck him in the first, and for the second and third round Parke reverted to hugging Santos against the fence and doing nothing. No way he will be able to do that to the LW monster that is Tibau. Parke also has no power so I don't see him being able to keep Tibau on the backfoot where Tibau struggles. I see Tibau landing the power shots and bullying Parke. Parke could stick and move to win the third round if Tibau gasses as is the norm but worst case I see a 29-28 decision for Tibau. As Parke hasn't been tested yet we don't know what he is like when faced with adversity. He has also completed this camp in Ireland and not at Alliance.

Tibau is a strange guy. He fights fairly close to his competition level. He beats elite competition like RDA and many thought he beat Khabib, yet he gets in fairly close fights with guys like Hallman. IMO, he's just as good or better than Parke everywhere and he has all of the physical advantages. Even with that in mind, I think this will probably end up being a close decision somehow.

 

[vkram]

Bendo to win by decision or technical decision is @ -111 whilst Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ is @ +450. As someone said in this thread before, Bendo is a 'stop me or lose by decision' type of guy. Thoughts?

 

[Te Huna Matata]

On top of him being one of the most boring fighters in the UFC, Parke's skillset isn't terribly impressive. Kicks on the outside then grind in the clinch. Tibau is better everywhere and has every physical edge save cardio. I really like Tibau at his current price. I think he should be a lot lower.

 

[rille31]

Bendo to win by decision or technical decision is @ -111 whilst Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ is @ +450. As someone said in this thread before, Bendo is a 'stop me or lose by decision' type of guy. Thoughts?

I like Alvarez decision @ +500

Bendos decision luck has to run out any day and I think this will be a competitive fight

 

[vkram]

I know its a bit early but anyone else Mousasi is @ -290 is a very good line and will only decrease?

 

[Ukram]

Looks like they saved all the bigger names for the main event, not sure which howard turns up certainly doomsday did not against ebersole last fight, even larkin has to make sure he turns up one more loss and surely out.

Like parke as a lively dog, think tibau is a mini beast and should have the edge here overall.

I think bendo will mirror what worked well for cowboy, bendo has deadly leg kicks also think he gets a decision here, but would love to see aggressive bendo here he needs to make some statement to get back to the top.

I just want to see siver take connor down....

 

[plekz]

I just want to see siver take connor down....

If Conor would faceplant Dana and Lorenzo needs to get put on suicide watch ASAP. I mean everyone (sane) knows his train comes to a stop when he faces Aldo, but they are banking SO MUCH on getting to cash out big before it comes to a halt.

And if he somehow fucks up against Siver OH WOW is all i have to say about that.

 

[Oblivian]

I think there is enough hype on McGregor that you will get a good line on Aldo.

 

[Almirante]

Alvarez +3.5 at around -150 would be great.

 

[plekz]

I think there is enough hype on McGregor that you will get a good line on Aldo.

I hope so, cuz if it's even remotely tasty i'll probably make it one of my biggest bets ever. That's how secure i feel with Aldo.

I see so many intangiables that makes Aldo a nightmare for Conor to deal with, and see very little on offer from Conor aside from his boxing. An Aldo that doesn't have to even think for a second about some guy coming to shoot doubles or singles on him? YEAH i'll have me some of that.

Who has Aldo even faced previously that where he didn't have to think about being taken down? Hominick whom he gave a second head, and then Korean Zombie where he injured his foot severly in the first round and still whooped koreaboys ass.

Lamas came to grapple, Mendes tried, Florian aswell, Edgar also man this must be like x-mas for Aldo.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

For now $ 5 on Conor to win $ 0.60 just for fun.. odds suck.

I love some Tibau at the current line. Ill bet on him as soon as my site has him available.

 

[Almirante]

Tibau [-145] (1.45u to win 1u)
NOT McGregor R1 [+140] (1u to win 1.4u)

 

[ivanilich]

i know it's not for a while but what are people's thoughts on glover vs rashad?? i thought the lines would be closer, surprised to see glover that much of a dog. think he should be favorite imo.

glover: 2.75 or + 175
rashad:1.43 or -245

I intend to go heavy at Suga's ML and Suga-Decision. See this fight playing similar to Glover x Davis.