Official UFN 59 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 4, 2015.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    Singles
    Soriano: $7.50 to win $7.88
    Karakhanyan: $7.50 to win $6.82
    Tibau: $7.50 to win $6.25
    Larkin: $7.50 to win $5.56
    Bendo/Cerrone over 2.5: $7.50 to win $3.95
    Siver/McGregor starts 2: $5 to win $4.76
    Cobb: $3.75 to win $6
    Pendred: $3.75 to win $5.25
    Zwicker: $3.75 to win $4.88
    Straus: $2.50 to win $4.50
    Alvin Robinson: $1.25 to win $2.69 Loss
    Morales: $1.25 to win $2.75
    Chidi: $1.25 to win $1.88 $3.13
    Kornberger: $1.25 to win $2.50
    Matsuda: $1.25 to win $1.81
    Dickman: $1.25 to win $1.69 2.94

    Risk of $53.75

    Parlays
    Wade + Hall: $6.25 to win $3.21
    Field over Simpson (Sony) + Shields + McGregor points handicap: $6.25 to win $3.41
    Field over Bubba (Hyundai) + O'Connell: $5 to win $3.80
    Zaromskis + Siver/McGregor doesn't start 4: $3.75 to win $3.40
    Colts (over Bengals) + Hall + McGregor ITD: $3.75 to win $4.43
    Field over Henley (Hyundai) + Sanchez/Matsuda starts 3 + Van Burren/O'Connell ITD: $3.50 to win $3.50
    Field over Johnson (Hyundai) + Frankie Perez: $1.50 to win $3.24
    Davis Jr. + Cerrone: $1.25 to win $3.77
    Field over Walker (Hyundai) + Cerrone: $1.25 to win $2.88

    Risk of $32.50

    TOTAL RISK OF $86.25

    TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $65.50, Running total is $65.99 Running Profit: $0.49 (Approximate ROI for year 0.75%)
    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2556.87 Total Profit = $2527.87 (Approximate ROI: 13.995%)
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2015
  2. ivanilich

    ivanilich Green Belt

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    Fightpass update announcement

    [YT]s0xYhNNEGqY[/YT]
     
  3. estranged

    estranged Brown Belt

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    What this has to do with betting?
     
  4. ivanilich

    ivanilich Green Belt

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    The announcement is related to the acquisition of other promotions libraries (CageRage, Pancrase...). Lots of people here use fightpass to watch tape.
     
  5. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Open
    [​IMG]
    Current
    [​IMG]
     
  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    NFL

    well the +6.5 hit but that game was such a work by the refs. its a shame that it tarnishes such a great game
     
  7. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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    Agreed. That reversal call that took away Detroit's first down was BS...
     
  8. OneWarrior1

    OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    So is McGregor the lock of this card? I'm thinking of either using him as parlay fodder and/or hammering the ITD line (if it's juicy enough)

    Early leans are Larkin, Bendo, and possibly Pendred
     
  9. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    i know it's not for a while but what are people's thoughts on glover vs rashad?? i thought the lines would be closer, surprised to see glover that much of a dog. think he should be favorite imo.

    glover: 2.75 or + 175
    rashad:1.43 or -245
     
  10. Tebowned

    Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    He's the most likely to win hence the odds but @-1000 I don't see that adding too much value to a play.

    Conor ITD
    Eddie
    Hall ITD
    Parke(first was on Tibau but flopped on park @ +odds) decision
    Sean Spencer
    Larkin decision

    Mostly leans but have put money on Eddie and park at + odds.

    I'll hit Glover. Rashad won't have the size advantage Phil had.

    Rashad has only lost to Jones, Machida, and lil nog though.


    Todays's results:

    [​IMG]

    Lost a little money hedging on DET with + odds.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  11. OneWarrior1

    OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    I believe that speed kills and Rashad is faster than Glover but then I remember Rashad's fight with Lil Nog and has me second guessing. If the over is juicy enough, that might be a good bet or a goes the distance bet.
     
  12. Sushi Mane

    Sushi Mane Green Belt

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    loving glover. these odds are stupid
     
  13. SalvadorAllende

    SalvadorAllende Paper belt

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    My betting site only have Conor-Siver (-800 for GOAT) for now... watching the odds above posted I think I may go light on this card (15/20% of BR).

    Early picks:
    Conor
    Benson
    Hall
    Holohan
    Larkin
    Tibau
    Wade

    All favs... I will watch some tape for the next weeks to see if there is a valuable underdog.

    Maybe a good card for live betting and parlaying big favs (Hall, GOAT, Wade)


    BTW.. what do you guys think about Mousasi at -333? I`m pretty sure he is going to win and dont know how the line is going to move. I have zero faith in TRT-less Hendo.

    Rashad-Glover is interesting. Evans has all the tools to beat Glover but you never know which version of him is showing up... plus he has been inactive lately.
     
  14. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    1u alvarez, 1u pendred so far
     
  15. illmatic 24

    illmatic 24 Blue Belt

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    Early impressions

    McGregor/Siver over 1.5 rounds
    Siver at +900 and better (flyer)
    Bendo decision or straight up
    Hall ITD or KO

    Dogs
    Parke
    Pendred
    Soriano
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  16. illmatic 24

    illmatic 24 Blue Belt

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    I know I've asked this before but if a fighter taps due to strikes do bookies call that TKO or Submission?
     
  17. Zorrox

    Zorrox Brown Belt

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    Here to eat my words after Jury. Was shocked to see him so hesitant and ineffective. I think that first round broke his confidence.

    Thank god I went huge on Jones and negated most of my losses.


    for this event I got Benson @-208, wonder how high Siver will go.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Skipping ahead and will repost/talk more about it for sure, but I have a very strong lean on Diaz/Silva.

    I think the over (or fight goes to decison) will end up having terrific value if the books don't give it a crazy expensive price.

    On first glance, Nick looks like a tailor made victim for Silva's counterstriking. Nick always moves forward, and Silva has feasted on guys that do that (especially, if like Nick, there's not much threat of a takedown). But the thing that makes Nick different is that he NEVER commits to throwing any of his punches with power. He doesn't sit down on them almost EVER, so his pitter patter jabs don't leave him too open to getting hit with huge counter shots as often as you'd think they would. He's hittable, but generally it's been by guys who are more willing to press the action and come at him. Silva prefers to sit back and counter, which is more difficult than you'd think vs. Diaz.

    Throw in that Diaz is CRAZY tough to finish even when he does get tagged, has a terrific guard in case he ends up on his back, and I really see this fight going the distance.

    And even though I actually think Diaz is a bit overrated overall, in some cases styles make fights (right Barry the heater?) We don't know for sure what we're getting in Silva with his comeback, so I may make a small play on Diaz su as well.

    For those with the option, NOT Silva itd would be the play to make imo.
     
  19. conmemay

    conmemay Boxer-Puncher

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    Most likely will be a submission loss.
     
  20. illmatic 24

    illmatic 24 Blue Belt

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    Thanks.

    Worth noting that Hall's opponent has tapped twice to strikes so an ITD play might be wiser than a KO.
     
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