Official UFN 42 (Henderson vs. Khabilov) Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[hazak]

2 UFCs in a day is a bit overkill for me - especially during the spring, summer, and fall when I want to be outside. For someone with a family, it's not easy to get away with sitting in front of a computer all morning and early afternoon watching fights followed by watching them on TV throughout the evening.

I personally feel the UFC is diluting their product a bit. You see it a lot in the fighter pay threads where people say "making it into the UFC means you are elite". With guys coming in from TUF Brazil, TUF China, and other randoms being thrown in to fill up their gigantic roster - it's not true. I never thought I'd be complaining about more MMA, but once it becomes so hard to keep up with, interest starts going down.

At the same time we gotta accept that the sport is growing in a major way not only in America but around the world. We're in a transitional phase right now with old school specialists (striking/wrestling/bjj) being replaced by kids that have trained MMA from a very young age. Real athletes coming into the sport instead of beer bellied champs who have nothing but heavy hands and a decent takedown defense. Also they gotta worry about Bellator snatching up prospects before they do which leads to a gamble of signing alot of prospects in hopes of some of them someday getting to the top 10 or even getting a title shot. Whether it feels diluted or not depends on one's obsession of whether they really need to watch every fight on every UFC card or just watch the ones ur really into (nobody's forcing anyone to watch everything, especially when it's airing live).

Sure guys like the TUF China guys won't get far in the UFC right now but you gotta think about how many people in China will be inspired as a result to get into MMA because of that season. That can only mean that the level of MMA will keep on rising in China and someday we'll see guys who can actually be a threat. It's all part of a smart business model to make the UFC huge in every corner of the world so it can be a truly global organization (which isn't the case yet). IMO it's the best time ever in MMA right now and fighters having less name value shouldn't mean much when the level of skill displayed in the octagon has never been higher. I much rather watch new prospects even if most people dont know who they are than watch some washed up UFC has beens like Ed Herman filling and stanking up the cards. Especially when we know guys like that only have 1 way to go in their careers and that's downhill (or in Ed Herman's case, falling straight off the cliff).

Being elite just because you're in the UFC might not mean what it once meant but it still means you made it to the highest level of the sport since no other organization can even come close to offering the same kind of chances for these athletes. I'd much rather see these undefeated new kids duke it out than go back to how things were like 5 years ago when it was mostly journeymen being brought in who were already at the downslope of their careers. Now we'll actually get to see these 20 year old kids grow in the octagon and how some of them will become major stars in the process. TJ Dillashaw anyone?

But yea most people care too much about name recognition and star power. Alot of these stars are getting old as shit and having tons of new prospects guarantees that we'll have a new generation that will take over once alot of these stars retire within the next few years. We just gotta adjust as fans and choose when we watch and how we watch. Saying UFC is getting diluted would be like saying NHL is diluted since it's not the best 2 teams playing each other all year long. Diversity and new styles and new personalities from different cultures s never bad for the sport.

 

[Specnaz]

Hallmann is pretty big lightweight, did his whole training camp with Bendo, polish mma media say that he made many changes as far as his stand-up is considered. I'd say Hallmann via UD.

 

[rille31]

Up around 500$ the past weekend

lot of mma coming up

ufn 42
bellator 121
rfa 15
cw 69

 

[hazak]

Hallmann is pretty big lightweight, did his whole training camp with Bendo, polish mma media say that he made many changes as far as his stand-up is considered. I'd say Hallmann via UD.

Yep Hallmann is one of the biggest lightweights on the roster. He's not been a fulltime fighter until this fight so i think we'll see him do alot better now. IIRC he had a very demanding job in the army for most of his career (til now). He's young too so alot of room to improve, especially since he's now training with Bendo.

 

[lamont13]

Seems like Hallman is the trendy pick but I favour Yves Edwards here, I think he will avoid the takedown and has better striking

 

[Jeffplsgo]

Like I said a mass murderer prolly went on a killing spree and randomly selected his house

That might just be the dumbest thing i have ever heard. You're saying that most driveby shootings aren't gang related?

 

[Spinning Elbow]

Hallmann is pretty big lightweight, did his whole training camp with Bendo, polish mma media say that he made many changes as far as his stand-up is considered. I'd say Hallmann via UD.

is that Jon Tuck in the middle?

 

[Specnaz]

^ Yup that's him, they train all together for this upcoming event

 

[NeoNinjaFC]

Im not sure how the lines gonna move but so far Caraway's moved from +110 at opening to -115 when the lines went up on my book. I figure the sharps will be on Caraway heavy but casuals will most likely be on Perez. I think it stays relatively similar to what its at now.

Perez has been much more reliant on his wrestling game in his recent fights as well which will not be an option against Caraway. Perez definitely has the stand up edge but Caraway has sneaky power and was even able to drop Mizugaki at one point and almost choke him out (no idea how Mizugaki survived the choke he was in). I thought Caraway actually won the fight and Mizugaki got a hometown decision.

Mizuagki vs Perez was also interesting because Mizugaki was also able to take Perez down on multiple occasions which should mean Caraway will be able to do the same. Mizugaki also almost got a finish when he sunk in that DEEP RNC, which is Caraways speciality.

All in all I think Caraway has showed he can take a hell of a shot and recover from it and if he mixes up his punches and TD's he should be able to win this fight. Caraway by sub would be a good prop IMO to those who have prop bets available.

How the hell did Caraway beat Miz? Got schooled in the standup in the 1st and 3rd easily, all Caraway did in the first was push Miz against the fence and got lit up with strikes. That was not a hometown decision at all, compared to some of the screwjobs American/Brazilian judges pull in their hometowns that was nothing. Clear 29-28 Mizugaki

 

[Goreds1994]

Hallman training with Bendo & company doesn't mean anything to me. His striking isn't going to become better than Yves' overnight. Yves trains at ATT iirc which is a better camp than the Lab.

 

[Goreds1994]

Oh shit...didn't even occur to me that High was cutting down to LW. He gassed in his last fight pretty bad....

That was partly due to him really going for the finish in round 1 I think. Iirc he had Lapsley in some bad spots on the ground and pushed for a finish and tired himself out. He won round 3 in that fight though so he wasn't that gassed.

 

[NeoNinjaFC]

If Hallman decides to go for a takedown heavy gameplan, Yves will have a long night ahead of him, Hallman is crazy strong, he was able to easily takedown Iaquinta a few times and finished Trinaldo with a kimura, that takes a lot of strengh to kimura a guy like Trinaldo. On the flip side, from what I've seen Hallman has bad fight IQ and likes to stand and trade with better strikers, despite having power his striking is atrocious and bad striking defense leaves him open to counters, if he decides to strike with Yves he's probably going to sleep despite having a great chin. This fight all comes down to how much Hallman has improved his defense and gameplanning with the new camp, and how good is Yve's takedown defence and ability to get back to his feet, he's been fighting all strikers lately so we haven't seen what his TDD is like.

 

[Card]

Tuck - http://www.ufc.com/news/Jon-Tuck-Hungry-to-Get-Back-on-Track

- I know that I suffered a setback in my last fight (Norman Parke), but I lost and I have to move forward from there.
- things will be different in my next one. That loss made me a stronger person.
- My last time in the Octagon was about six months ago and I’ve been working hard every day since then to improve my skills.
- Jake Lindsey’s a scrappy dude and I like those types of fights
- He’s coming in there looking to make a positive debut. I’m coming in there off a loss and I’m hungry to show what I’m made of that.
- I’ve trained at gyms all over the country but The Lab is something different
- They literally make you feel like you are at home. Sometimes it doesn’t even feel like you are working out in an MMA gym. Everyone takes care of the next guy and we are all working toward the same goal.
- There are no egos and there are never any bumps in the road in our gym. I’m positive that with each session we get one percent better every day.

 

[efalk1322]

You guys have some damn good memories as exemplified by this discussion about the Bryan Caraway vs Takeya Mizugaki fight from March 2013 like it just happened last week. I have a superb memory for trivia and stuff but there's so many damn fighters and fights in the UFC nowadays I'm amazed everyone can recall all these details with such specificity to break these fights down.

Fight pass!

 

[Card]

Cummins - http://www.ufc.com/news/The-Comeback-of-Patrick-Cummins

- My opponent changed and I feel like I’ve been dealing with that my entire career, so it is back to normal
- At least the opponent is somewhat similar to the original. The only difference is, one’s left-handed, one’s right-handed
- It took at least a month to get my head straight. That’s the first loss I had, and I never thought going into a fight that I could lose.
- Luckily I’m surrounded by a lot of really good people
- If you gave me a hundred chances at it, I would do it every single time. No regrets
- I need a little redemption for myself and to show what I can do to the other people that think I had no business being in there
- I think I’ll be much more relaxed this time around, and just to have that experience under my belt is great.
- We were able to pinpoint a couple things that went wrong, it was just that I need to keep my focus and keep my head in the game.
- I think there’s one thing that people love more than the underdog, and that’s a comeback story

 

[Card]

Roger Narvaez
- black belt under Hector Munoz in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
- Second degree black belt in Taekwondo
- I am currently a firefighter with the Corpus Christi Fire Department. I love my job and I love my department.
- started training BJJ initially in 2007 to lose weight and stay in shape for firefighting (my profession).
- As I began to compete in jiu-jitsu tournaments I saw a lot of success on the regional circuit and decided to try my hand at this cagefighting stuff. Turns out I was pretty decent and ever since the first one I have just kept climbing.
- Cummins is a big strong wrestler who has decent hands. He likes to get the fight to the ground and work towards his strength. It going to be a tough fight, but at this level, every fight is a tough fight.
- A typical day of training usually consists of strength and conditioning in the AM followed by grappling, bagwork, mitt work, etc. around noon. Then I go home eat, rest, and recover for team practice in the evening. Team practice usually consists of grappling/wrestling, kickboxing, etc. After that it's straight home to eat, rest, and recover for the next day.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/5/2...s-arreola-puig-vs-martins-fox-12-tuf-mma-news

Who is Roger Narvaez?

The 30-year old fighter hailing from the Full Contact Fight Academy in Corpus Christi, Texas will enter the UFC on the tail of an undefeated 6-0 record. He was lined up to take on Bubba Bush for the Legacy FC middleweight title, but pulled from that bout for his UFC debut. At 6' 3" he shouldn't be terribly undersized at 205 (he looks pretty big on camera). Outside of a split decision over Hayward Charles at Legacy FC 23, his record isn't anything to write home about; a combination of cans, green competition, and regional journeymen. Apart from of his one strong opponent, he's finished all of his fights quickly, with 3 TKOs and two subs, but it's not a terribly meaningful record.

What you should expect:

Narvaez is big and strong, and he's spent some time on the regional grappling circuit, so he's not untrained outside his MMA game, but he's also fairly raw for a fighter in the UFC. He's a fairly major proponent of the chin up, arms bent, style of striking and has gotten hit hard a few times because of it. Eventually, the goal of his striking is to get in on a body lock so that he can drag his opponent to the mat. His takedown game doesn't look gorgeous, mostly predicated on size and effort, but once he's on the floor, his top control and ground and pound are strong. He looks good when advancing position, and strikes with some serious power from the top. If he stays at light heavyweight, he could get a lot more time to develop than he might at 185.

What this means for his debut:

Most likely, bad things. Cummins is a raw talent as well, but his raw tools, most notably his wrestling and striking should serve him a lot better than Narvaez's. Cummins is more patient and technical in his standup and should be able to dictate the grappling exchanges. Narvaez may have a pretty good shot against the brawlers of light heavyweight, but I expect this fight to give him trouble. The fact that he's also taking the fight on just under three weeks notice will probably work against him as well.

To get us better acquainted, here's a look at Roger Narvaez's recent bout with Aaron Glynn:

 

[Card]

Jake Lindsey
- Librarian
- Victory Fighting Championship lightweight champion
- took a 50-2 pro kickboxer to a decision in Poland on two weeks’ notice for my first kickboxing match.
- started training when I was around 20 years old. I was big PRIDE guy
- Jon Tuck has great BJJ, okay hands and okay wrestling.
- I train about twice a day. I normally sleep in super late so right when I wake up I am heading to the gym. After my first session I hit up my second training session back at the house on my computer, playing video games competitively. I'll relax most of the afternoon then at early evening I will go to the gym and hit my second training session.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/5/7/5691254/welcome-to-the-ufc-jake-lindsey-sultan-aliev

Who is Jake Lindsey?

Undefeated at 9-0, the 27-year old Lindsey comes to the UFC training out of the Combative Sport Center in Manhattan, Kansas. There he trains alongside regional vet Joe Wilk, and rising prospect Brandon Bear. Unlike many prospects plucked from the US regional scene, Lindsey's record actually has a bit of depth to it. His first career win came over current Bellator fighter Bobby Cooper, and his knockout of Zach Freeman was a great showing between decent prospects. Otherwise he has wins over traveled vets like Marcio Navarro and Ted Worthington. It's not a sterling record, but it's better than most through ten fights.

Interestingly, Lindsey apparently came to MMA with little to no martial arts background, but a desire to try MMA saw him steered to Wilk's gym by a promoter he contacted, in search of a fight. Considering that he's just been signed to the UFC "The Librarian" (and yes he apparently is a librarian) has done shockingly well for himself in his 4+ years of cage time.

What you should expect:

Watching Lindsey fight, his lack of a longtime martial arts background shows through in small ways. He's not terribly economical with his movement, his form and stance are a bit crude or at least lacking in some of the fluidity that accompanies a long history of combat sports training. But, what he may lack in polish, he makes up for in power, aggression, and variety. His range striking game mostly consists of a pawing jab and a decent mix of leg and front kicks, but he closes the distance well behind lunging strikes, most notably elbows and uppercuts. In the clinch is where Lindsey's power and agression really shine. He digs hard to the body, throws great elbows, and unleashes tight hooks in combination.

He's not the most defensively sound fighter, and his wrestling game appears under developed (mostly consisting of bullying smaller competition) but he also looks to have the kind of fight changing power that can make technical flaws moot, at least for a while.

To get us better acquainted, here's Jake Lindsey's recent bout agianst Zach Freeman at Titan FC 25:

 

[Card]

[YT]XrRPOZd1H4c[/YT]

Khabilov
- Albuquerque reminds me of Dagestan, rugged, alot of mountains
- I pray five times a day and follow the same traditions
- I ask God, let me become a Champion or not, it's your choice
- I want to be the same person I've always been, I don't want to change anything in my life
- In Albuquerque, I train all the time, 3-4 times a day, I only focus for training
- Everyone is family at gym
- Winkeljohn: Khabilov is in the gym relentlessly, shadow boxing, wrestling, hitting the bag, work ethic, works harder than anyone in the gym
- Jackson: You can see his progression, from just a good wrestler to where he is now
- Benson's a very good fighter, a win over him is very important for me
- Jackson: This is Khabilov's toughest test, there's no doubt about it, if he shows up on fight night, he can beat Benson

 

[EzFlyer]

You guys have some damn good memories as exemplified by this discussion about the Bryan Caraway vs Takeya Mizugaki fight from March 2013 like it just happened last week. I have a superb memory for trivia and stuff but there's so many damn fighters and fights in the UFC nowadays I'm amazed everyone can recall all these details with such specificity to break these fights down.

the way you're volume betting like i am, if you're watching every fight.. you'll start to, too. that's part of why i volume bet. even when i make a less-than-ideally educated bet on something, i swear i learn more by having $ on it. it is like an indelible impression that it leaves that is hard to match.

i'm not advocating the strategy, but it works for me (even tho i'm not doing great this year). unquantifiable results

 

[betterthanjones]

The best way to remember fights well is to smoke weed while watching them try it.