Official UFN 42 (Henderson vs. Khabilov) Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Barkus]

[YT]KxrPM1Q-Xeg[/YT]

Hell yeah, going to listen tomorrow.

 

[edhan]

How the hell is is Patrick Cummins -380 versus anybody? UFC hype train on full display.

Agreed with just five fights? Will be staying away. Any thoughts on Caraway? I like his fight IQ over Erik Perez and I'm sure I'm not alone in that he beat Mitzugaki. i think he may grind one out. I was hoping he'd be more +150 but maybe he gets there closer to fight night.

 

[efalk1322]

Absolutely love Caraway at around even in this fight. He should be around -160ish IMO. Perez has shaky sub defense at times and thats gonna cost him in this one I think. 2u on him

 

[NewcastleTom]

It's not technically their hometown, but the info is useful for gambling purposes.

I think the biggest advantage for hometown fighters is getting the crowd reaction during the fight which can create the illusion that what the hometown fighter is doing is more significant than it actually is, which can sway judges.

When Buffer says "fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico" that should be enough to have the crowd back them.

They also will benefit from lack of travel.

They might be more used to the altitude than some of their opponents too

 

[edhan]

Absolutely love Caraway at around even in this fight. He should be around -160ish IMO. Perez has shaky sub defense at time and thats gonna cost him in this one I think. 2u on him

Ok glad someone shares the same thought on Caraway. Think Erik will get bet more? You'd like to think that Erik is the sexier pick. Don't want to blow my load on Caraway too soon.

Shaky sub defense and he's waaayyyy too wreckless. Mitzugaki has also shown to be wreckless with his standup. I really think Caraway plays a technical game and mixes it up well drawing boo's from the audience.

 

[efalk1322]

Ok glad someone shares the same thought on Caraway. Think Erik will get bet more? You'd like to think that Erik is the sexier pick. Don't want to blow my load on Caraway too soon.

Shaky sub defense and he's waaayyyy too wreckless. Mitzugaki has also shown to be wreckless with his standup. I really think Caraway plays a technical game and mixes it up well drawing boo's from the audience.

Im not sure how the lines gonna move but so far Caraway's moved from +110 at opening to -115 when the lines went up on my book. I figure the sharps will be on Caraway heavy but casuals will most likely be on Perez. I think it stays relatively similar to what its at now.

Perez has been much more reliant on his wrestling game in his recent fights as well which will not be an option against Caraway. Perez definitely has the stand up edge but Caraway has sneaky power and was even able to drop Mizugaki at one point and almost choke him out (no idea how Mizugaki survived the choke he was in). I thought Caraway actually won the fight and Mizugaki got a hometown decision.

Mizuagki vs Perez was also interesting because Mizugaki was also able to take Perez down on multiple occasions which should mean Caraway will be able to do the same. Mizugaki also almost got a finish when he sunk in that DEEP RNC, which is Caraways speciality.

All in all I think Caraway has showed he can take a hell of a shot and recover from it and if he mixes up his punches and TD's he should be able to win this fight. Caraway by sub would be a good prop IMO to those who have prop bets available.

 

[EzFlyer]

Spoiler

Not bad but I like LA in this matchup. As much as I'd like to think Rangers can win this one but I'm not sure they have an answer to LAs Defense + Quick.Rangers rolling 4 good lines is key against a team that has been to 3 game 7s so they'll have to be a little fortunate and Hank will have to again be the best player. Let's go rangers!

Spoiler

yea, i do give LA slight edge, but REALLY slight. maybe 55-45, therabouts. think there's more value on NYR right now

pains me to say that as a flyers fan, heh.

 

[EzFlyer]

Shlemenko & Zayats comes to mind, but yea "v" in general is super common in Russian names and everyone from Dagestan and Chechnya seems to have a last name that ends with "ov" or "ev".

Somewhat related I really wanna see Adlan Amagov back in action, I hear he's training in Moscow but I have no idea when or even if he plans to come back. That dude is a fucking savage, sad to see him spending his prime on the bench.

me, too. he has such incredible potential, it's crazy that he's only 24 or w/e, he looks like he's 40

Aren't the Klitschko brothers Ukranian?

Tennis

Spoiler

Big on Bouchard as well as Muguruza/Sharapova to go 3 sets. Small on Berdych ML. Staying away from Djokovic/Raonic, both guys are playing very well (Djokovic exceptionally so). Think Djokovic will take it, but by how much?

ah yea they are, i think

Spoiler

pretty much on board everywhere, but i'm a degen so i did the +games on raonic, which prolly will lose! lol

 

[Criminal]

Card posts a bunch of useful and important stats and facts. He was pointing out that they are fighting n there home town for training and since it's in Albuquerque New Mexico the high altitude can play a big factor.

Card has pointed out a bunch of things that have made a lot of bettors in here a lot of $. Keep doing your thing mane. I know a bunch of us in here appreciate it.

 

[null]

Im not sure how the lines gonna move but so far Caraway's moved from +110 at opening to -115 when the lines went up on my book. I figure the sharps will be on Caraway heavy but casuals will most likely be on Perez. I think it stays relatively similar to what its at now.

Perez has been much more reliant on his wrestling game in his recent fights as well which will not be an option against Caraway. Perez definitely has the stand up edge but Caraway has sneaky power and was even able to drop Mizugaki at one point and almost choke him out (no idea how Mizugaki survived the choke he was in). I thought Caraway actually won the fight and Mizugaki got a hometown decision.

Mizuagki vs Perez was also interesting because Mizugaki was also able to take Perez down on multiple occasions which should mean Caraway will be able to do the same. Mizugaki also almost got a finish when he sunk in that DEEP RNC, which is Caraways speciality.

All in all I think Caraway has showed he can take a hell of a shot and recover from it and if he mixes up his punches and TD's he should be able to win this fight. Caraway by sub would be a good prop IMO to those who have prop bets available.

You guys have some damn good memories as exemplified by this discussion about the Bryan Caraway vs Takeya Mizugaki fight from March 2013 like it just happened last week. I have a superb memory for trivia and stuff but there's so many damn fighters and fights in the UFC nowadays I'm amazed everyone can recall all these details with such specificity to break these fights down.

 

[PuertoRican]

[YT]XrRPOZd1H4c[/YT]

 

[Turtleguard]

So what is the deal when it comes to Bendo's past wins and which ones are legit. Has the consensus changed? My understanding is most Sherdoggers view his wins over Thomson and Edgar in the rematch as draws at best and legit losses at worse. When it comes to Bendo's other wins, do Sherdoggers at least feel that all of those wins are legit even if a few were razor thin?

My opinion and it is a pretty common one I think: Benson won convincingly in the first edgar match, but Edgar got robbed in the second. I think with Melendez he deserved the win because after Gil stepped "off the gas" Benson took over. I dunno about the Thomson fight I gotta watch it again.

 

[Idgetmyasskickd]

I've wasted many posts by reminding him about this very issue. But to no avail...

I don't think Card even knows why he does it, he just sits there posting incorrect information while muttering "clunk, clunk, clunk." For days and days, I sat and watched him, trying to understand the meaning behind it all. I sat in the garden eating lunch, watching him post incorrect information, but still never could clearly read him.

So, why does he do it? No one really knows... All we know is, the gods allow it.

lol I got this .

 

[Turtleguard]

I can't play Dodson at those odds (Even though I think he wins this fight easily) but I will probably be making plays on the first 3. Still thinking about a play on High. I think High is underrated but this is his first cut to LW and RDA is very good.

Oh shit...didn't even occur to me that High was cutting down to LW. He gassed in his last fight pretty bad....

 

[Diet Otsuka]

Sup peeps?
Been playing real small lately, but I am planning on going into deeper water on these next two cards.

I have always used Bovada, but hate how late they put out the props, plus I wouldn't mind trying to wrangle a sign up bonus on my first deposit, if I go with a new bookie.

Any suggestions? How is 5dimes looking these days? (living in the US, currently)
Is it a pain to get the first pay out, similar to Bovada? I had to fax them carbon copies of the card I used to deposit, proof of address, blah blah. I would rather not go through that, if possible.

Anyone have any suggestions? Are you happy with your current choices?
Thanks in advance.

As far as UFN 42:
I like Pearson over Sanchez.
I think he can move well and pull off a decision. I just don't have a ton of faith in Diego for this fight. He looked slow and confused vs Jury, and I think Ross can play a similar game.

I'm on Yves as well as one of my dog picks.
Yeah, he is old, but he is a veteran and has rebounded fine from KO's in the past.
I also think he won both the Cruickshank and Vallie-flagg fights. Retirement is on the horizon, but I think he can take Hallmann.

Kind of contemplating on going big on Perez. Caraway starts slow, and Perez is young and hungry. In the kind of place where there can be serious development can take place fight to fight. I think he comes out quick and gets the w.

 

[Mga223]

My opinion and it is a pretty common one I think: Benson won convincingly in the first edgar match, but Edgar got robbed in the second. I think with Melendez he deserved the win because after Gil stepped "off the gas" Benson took over. I dunno about the Thomson fight I gotta watch it again.

My opinion

Won: Edgar 1

Lost: Edgar 2, Melendez and Thompson fight.

Edgar 2 should of never happened though.

 

[Oblivian]

You guys have some damn good memories as exemplified by this discussion about the Bryan Caraway vs Takeya Mizugaki fight from March 2013 like it just happened last week. I have a superb memory for trivia and stuff but there's so many damn fighters and fights in the UFC nowadays I'm amazed everyone can recall all these details with such specificity to break these fights down.

I used to be really good at remembering most of the fights and what happened, but it's damn near impossible now with all of the fighters. I do remember Mizugaki/Caraway pretty well though. Caraways corner told him he was up two rounds and they were pretty adamant about it. He was tired in the 3rd and just wanted to survive. I'm not sure if he would have had a different result since he was tired anyhow, but his corner did him a big injustice as he was not clearly up 2 rounds.

I was most impressed with him against Bedford. Bedford did not seem like an easy guy to takedown and handle the way he did. Caraway looked outstanding in that fight.

Sup peeps?
Been playing real small lately, but I am planning on going into deeper water on these next two cards.

I have always used Bovada, but hate how late they put out the props, plus I wouldn't mind trying to wrangle a sign up bonus on my first deposit, if I go with a new bookie.

Any suggestions? How is 5dimes looking these days? (living in the US, currently)
Is it a pain to get the first pay out, similar to Bovada? I had to fax them carbon copies of the card I used to deposit, proof of address, blah blah. I would rather not go through that, if possible.

Anyone have any suggestions? Are you happy with your current choices?
Thanks in advance.

As far as UFN 42:
I like Pearson over Sanchez.
I think he can move well and pull off a decision. I just don't have a ton of faith in Diego for this fight. He looked slow and confused vs Jury, and I think Ross can play a similar game.

I'm on Yves as well as one of my dog picks.
Yeah, he is old, but he is a veteran and has rebounded fine from KO's in the past.
I also think he won both the Cruickshank and Vallie-flagg fights. Retirement is on the horizon, but I think he can take Hallmann.

Kind of contemplating on going big on Perez. Caraway starts slow, and Perez is young and hungry. In the kind of place where there can be serious development can take place fight to fight. I think he comes out quick and gets the w.

I made the switch from Bovada to 5dimes and I'd never go back. I honestly can't remember the exact details of when I deposited as it's been a while, but I don't think it was as big of a pain in the ass as Bovada. I'm almost positive I didn't have to send them much, but others can chime in as my memory is hazy on that. The payout option was a breeze. My payout was around $400, and they did it through Western Union. Basically, I just had to find a Western Union site (very easy as many players are reps for Western Union), fill out a form with the # they gave me, and walked out with $400 cash. To me, that is so much better than going to my bank with a foreign check from Bovada.

Not to be a Debbie Downer or to try to sway you too much, but I think Caraway's line is one of the best currently. I think he should be more in the -150 to -175 range. Watch his fights against Bedford and Mizugaki, and it's hard to see him as a dog against Perez.

 

[hazak]

"Saturday was no one time thing. UFC is going to be doing these double-shots fairly often going forward.

June 28 has shows in Auckland, New Zealand, and San Antonio.

August 23 has shows in Macau, China and Tulsa, Okla.

October 4 has shows in Stockholm, Sweden and Halifax, N.S., Canada.

In each case, there is an early show on Fight Pass and a prime time show on North American television, FS 1 in the United States."

Fucking love it

 

[Oblivian]

2 UFCs in a day is a bit overkill for me - especially during the spring, summer, and fall when I want to be outside. For someone with a family, it's not easy to get away with sitting in front of a computer all morning and early afternoon watching fights followed by watching them on TV throughout the evening.

I personally feel the UFC is diluting their product a bit. You see it a lot in the fighter pay threads where people say "making it into the UFC means you are elite". With guys coming in from TUF Brazil, TUF China, and other randoms being thrown in to fill up their gigantic roster - it's not true. I never thought I'd be complaining about more MMA, but once it becomes so hard to keep up with, interest starts going down.

 

[betterthanjones]

The Bedford fight was a big selling point to me. Not to mention Caraway took that fight on 6 days notice. I'm holding off for now, I think his line may get even better. I've watched tape and so far I think Caraway is the right side of the bet.

Will post some b/ds in a few days time on some fights