Official UFN 42 (Henderson vs. Khabilov) Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[YoungScholar]

This whole ten dollars a month is crap, if they made it like 33 cents a day then it might be worth it

I think it's awesome. It used to be a fucking headache to find a lot of older fights when planning out your bets. $10 is in my opinion well worth especially with this many cards. I know it has gotten a lot of hate for being an extra expense for UFC fans but in my opinion it's well worth the money.

 

[efalk1322]

Like I said a mass murderer prolly went on a killing spree and randomly selected his house

no....just no.

Back to the fights though, i put 1.3u on Diego to start off. May add more later in the week.

 

[Card]

Reed Kuhn http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/...night-42-statistical-analysis-and-fight-pick/

Dodson by TKO

The odds are steep, but we see evidence as to why Dodson might be the biggest favorite of the night. Knowing that Moraga’s best chance to win is by pushing forward to land a takedown, Dodson should be able to use a sprawl and brawl approach to the fight, and potentially catch Moraga on the chin while coming in. The key ingredients for an upset simply aren’t here, so put Dodson in your parlays or play him straight up for a conservative, low return investment. Don’t go crazy if the line continues to move though, as a loss by wrestling is still a possibility, and injuries can and do change fights in an instant. The way Dodson hits, a broken hand is a real wild card risk. But if Dodson wins, you can definitely count on some in-cage acrobatics afterwards.

The Under of 2.5 rounds at +150 is riskier, but the likeliest finish is via Dodson’s strikes. Flyweights had a big year of KO’s last year, bucking the trend of smaller fighter’s lacking finishing power and suggesting that at some point speed makes up for size. In his UFC wins so far, Dodson has put away three of four opponents by T/KO finish, but notably did not finish Moraga in their last fight in Nemesis. Still, at plus money an Under suggests decent value since this really is the most likely outcome for the fight, with a Decision win a close second. Moraga has taken a good share of wins by submission, but catching the Jackson-trained Dodson in a choke is unlikely and requires putting him on the ground for an extended period early on. The KO prop on Dodson closer to fight time may return even better va

 

[PuertoRican]

nhl finals

Spoiler

was back and forth for a while on the pick, here. imo, it's super close. i give a TINY edge to LA, just because i think their depth is a little better and quick's sealed the deal in the playoffs, unlike lundqvist in the past. but nyr's depth has been arguably the key to their success, too. dominic freakin moore has been ridiculous, a 4th liner..

at +150, i think they're clearly the play. i'd say maybe 2u or so.

i did 5u, but note that i have a playoff pool that i do for a few hundy.. and i picked LA in that one, so i'm doing more on nyr than i'm recommending due to that.

full props are not up yet, btw, for series games & what not. i am almost assuredly doing another O5.5/O6.0 line at -150ish if that's the price, probably 4u or so.

Spoiler

I predicted the cup winner to come out of the West. Even though I thought the Ducks would win it all, I still think the West will win it.

I'm gonna see if I can get a better price than -165 though. Maybe if it gets tied up or if NY takes the lead.

 

[Card]

Edwards - http://www.ufc.com/news/Yves-Edwards-Still-in-Love-with-the-Game

- I didn’t get hit with weed (like Medeiros) - I got hit with an uppercut
- Edwards is the most senior member of the lightweight ranks and one of the oldest active competitors on the UFC roster
- he’s managed to stay relatively healthy over the course of his career, fighting at least three times in all but two years between 1998 and 2013, something he credits to good genes and never getting caught up in the party lifestyle that traps many professional athletes.
- Having more and more success with guys that are beastly like Poirier and Brooks and Nik Lentz, and learning things from them and being able to help them out
- I’m still enjoying it. When I get to train with guys like that and they can push me and help me learn new things, it’s like I haven’t hit my ceiling yet and I want to know where the ceiling is.
- I’ve got these guys out there - young guys - and they’re pushing me, and it feels good. While I’m out there, I don’t feel like I’m 37.
- I wish Mike Brown would get back on the mat instead of coaching. He doesn’t have anything lined up right now, so he’s just in a coaching role, and it’s like, `Man, I wish Mike would get back on the mat’ because I don’t like being the oldest guy on the mat.
- “I look around and there is no one else that is older than me. I wish Din Thomas would come down
- I don’t want it to be over, man
- I know it will be eventually, but when it’s time to cross that bridge, I will and I’m prepared for that, but I’m just not prepared for that to be this month or this year.
- I still feel competitive, physically, I’m no different than I was five years ago or even eight or nine years ago.
- If my game is elevating and I’m still competitive, there is no point in hanging it up, I’m still in love with the game.

 

[Card]

Adam Martin picks: http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ep55/

Henderson - fought better competition, via UD
Sanchez - Close fight, value in Sanchez +155, bigger, hometown edge, more aggresive, Pearson lost to Miller, close fight via Couture, via split decision
Dodson - via UD, will be competitive
dos Anjos - via UD, don't think High can LNP
Hallmann - Edwards lost 3 in a row, younger and tougher, via UD
Perez - hometown advantage, younger, Caraway hasn't fought in a year, via UD

 

[Barkus]

I think it's awesome. It used to be a fucking headache to find a lot of older fights when planning out your bets. $10 is in my opinion well worth especially with this many cards. I know it has gotten a lot of hate for being an extra expense for UFC fans but in my opinion it's well worth the money.

He was making a joke there lol.

But I agree fightpass is great for researching. It was a smart move on the ufc's part too. The most effective way to combat piracy is to make your own content easily available for paying customers. Apple did this with the music industry by making their content easily available for paying customers via itunes. The last several years those knuckle heads at the ufc were removing old fights from the net without even bothering to make their own content available in the same format: Online streaming. They've been missing out on a lot of revenue due to their own backwards thinking. Did they actually believe that attacking online piracy would protect their dvd sales, a format noone wants to use? Complete stupidity. /rant.

 

[plekz]

Dat bjj don't know why I didn't put more on the line. After I told you about it at +1000 it went down GF got in at +225. Free money, can't wait to kill it on the next one as well.

Betting mundials?

 

[EzFlyer]

Spoiler

I predicted the cup winner to come out of the West. Even though I thought the Ducks would win it all, I still think the West will win it.

I'm gonna see if I can get a better price than -165 though. Maybe if it gets tied up or if NY takes the lead.

Pretty tough to start off 2-0, even at home.. I think you should pass on -165, wait until 0-1 or 1-1. But that's me

 

[PuertoRican]

Pretty tough to start off 2-0, even at home.. I think you should pass on -165, wait until 0-1 or 1-1. But that's me

Yeah, that's what my post said, or was trying to say. I don't like -165 for the Kings, so I'm gonna wait to bet them, either if they lose 1 game or when it's tied. If I can't find a good spot after the 2nd game is over, I'll pass entirely.

 

[Barkus]

hate that, but i'm pretty sure that'll be the best price we see, don't you?

i'd bet prolly 4 or 5u on it if i could (so i'll do just that if it IS the price we're given at 5d)

I agree, I love Conor at that price.

 

[emax]

So what is the deal when it comes to Bendo's past wins and which ones are legit. Has the consensus changed? My understanding is most Sherdoggers view his wins over Thomson and Edgar in the rematch as draws at best and legit losses at worse. When it comes to Bendo's other wins, do Sherdoggers at least feel that all of those wins are legit even if a few were razor thin?

 

[fortheo]

Anyone remember what kind of injury made khabilov pull out of the RDA fight ? wondering if it was serious and if it may have had an affect on his camp.

 

[hazak]

Anyone remember what kind of injury made khabilov pull out of the RDA fight ? wondering if it was serious and if it may have had an affect on his camp.

I don't think they ever shared that, they just said it was an undisclosed injury. Khabilov himself might talk about it during some interviews before the fight.

 

[Psychojoe86]

So what is the deal when it comes to Bendo's past wins and which ones are legit. Has the consensus changed? My understanding is most Sherdoggers view his wins over Thomson and Edgar in the rematch as draws at best and legit losses at worse. When it comes to Bendo's other wins, do Sherdoggers at least feel that all of those wins are legit even if a few were razor thin?

His fights are usually tough and competitive at the very least. I think khabilov is a good pick for an upset via solid grappling. He wins in more convincing decisions than Henderson in his recent fights.

The difference is the level of competition, where benson has a huge advantage. But so far I'm leaning towards khabilov by decision

 

[dbsh209]

Tennis results and plays for tomorrow

Spoiler

Ferrer -7
Verdasco +3

Quarterfinals:

Djokovic -5.5
Berdych money line

 

[plekz]

So what is the deal when it comes to Bendo's past wins and which ones are legit. Has the consensus changed? My understanding is most Sherdoggers view his wins over Thomson and Edgar in the rematch as draws at best and legit losses at worse. When it comes to Bendo's other wins, do Sherdoggers at least feel that all of those wins are legit even if a few were razor thin?

He lost the second Edgar fight (gift decision) i think Thomson won the fight aswell. First Edgar fight however Bendo beat the shit out of Edgar, much like he beat the shit out of Diaz aswell.

Thomson fight should have been a W for Thomson, or at worst a DRAW but not a W for Bendo.

 

[ninjadeathcult]

In a way I was hoping that they would give Diego an opponent that would 100% beat him so they can cut the guy. He can actually win this fight against Pearson which will give Diego another 3 fights to get more brain damage.

Early leans

Sanchez, Henderson, Dodson, RDA, Carraway, Yves

 

[emax]

He lost the second Edgar fight (gift decision) i think Thomson won the fight aswell. First Edgar fight however Bendo beat the shit out of Edgar, much like he beat the shit out of Diaz aswell.

Thomson fight should have been a W for Thomson, or at worst a DRAW but not a W for Bendo.

And what about the Gil Menedez title defense? Do most Sherdoggers accept that win as legit, albeit a real, real close legit win?

 

[EzFlyer]

i like benoist +217, tho not sure why he's been out of action for so long

also considering meza +270

(this is on sportsbook, not 5d)