Official UFN 42 (Henderson vs. Khabilov) Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jun 2, 2014.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    Took another small loss last event, so keeping the theme of playing really small.

    Caraway: $5 to win $5.50
    Dodson + Hallman/Edwards over 2.5: $5 to win $5.04
    Pearson/Sanchez over 2.5 + Dos Anjos: $5 to win $4.44
    Pettis + Jorgensen: $5 to win $4.07
    Benoist: $5 to win $6 $11
    Sokodjou + Anundson/Wallace over 2.5 + Martinez/Jorg dec + Narvaez/Cummins ITD: $2.50 to win $8.83 $11.33
    Tuck + James Thompson: $2.50 to win $4.18 $6.68
    Bendo/Khabilov starts 3 + Casey: $2.50 to win $5.19
    Rinaldi + Prindle/Thompson ITD: $2.50 to win $6.66 Loss

    TOTAL RISK OF $35

    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $105.32 Running Profit/Loss = -$22.18 (Approximate ROI for year -1.54%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2513.44 Total Profit = $2484.44 (Approximate ROI: 14.685%)
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2014
  2. Hanz_Blitz

    Hanz_Blitz BJJ all day

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    Khabilov for the upset
     
  3. ALAN PARTRIDGE

    ALAN PARTRIDGE NO LONGER REGISTERED

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    Henderson all day
     
  4. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    khabilov seems decent value, I don't see benson being able to impose his will very easily in this. will be interesting to see how much khabilov has learned from the masvidal fight.

    might play pearson as well if his price gets a bit better, only thing that worries me is the size difference.
     
  5. NeoNinjaFC

    NeoNinjaFC Banned Banned

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    Been fading Diego like crazy lately and making cash but I think I may take a small flier on him vs Pearson. Jury and Melendez are leagues above Pearson and at dog odds Sanchez it's worth it, Diego may be able to secure a decision via takedowns and out muscling the smaller man. Not confident at all but worth a flier at least.

    Also liking Hallman over Edwards at -185, gotta watch some tape but Edwards is over the hill and been on a losing streak whereas Hallman seems like a young up and coming grappler, subbed Trinaldo which is more impressive than anything Yves has done in a while. Not a lock by any means since Edwards can still light people up with his striking. Liking the price though at -185

    Also liking RDA, Dodson and for future bets Lawler over Brown (horrible matchup for Brown)

    and is it just me but Aldo at -180 over Mendes seems like a steal?

    With all the dogs hitting lately I think things will come back to normal and we will see more favorites winning their usual share of fights, but still I'm on the lookout for dog picks since the last few months has kinda woke me up to the fact that in MMA huge underdog lines hit very often, overall I think all the upsets is good for bettors since the lines were getting into boxing territory with -1000 favorites making parlays not even worth it. I think thats why Aldo's line is only -180, if not for all the underdogs hitting lately bookmakers would have him at -250 or higher. Unpredictability is a good thing for bettors in the long run.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2014
  6. Goreds1994

    Goreds1994 Silver Belt

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    I like Yves against Hallman. Yves is a much better striker, and Hallman hasn't been that impressive in his 2 UFC fights. He survived after getting hurt against Trinaldo and then subbed him when he was gassed. He got soundly out grappled by Iaquinta. Yves won both of those fights and Cruickshank & IVF imo & was outstriking Mederois before getting caught and KO'd. He KO'd Jeremy Stephens viciously as well. Hallman does not have a lot of KO power and I don't think he is going to hurt Yves on the feet, and I feel like Yves can avoid takedowns and survive on the ground if it does go there.

    Since that Stout KO loss you can make an argument he should be 5-0 instead of 2-3-1.
     
  7. NeoNinjaFC

    NeoNinjaFC Banned Banned

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    Admittedly I know very little about Hallman, have to review more tape on him. I don't remember much about the Cruickshank/Yves fight but I thought IVF edged out a decision in his match with Yves, I don't rate IVF too highly so that fight put Yves as fade material for me, and he is also 37 years old vs a young guy in Hallman in his 20's. I was looking to fade Yves here but will hold off until I watch more Hallman fights until I make a decision either way.
     
  8. Goreds1994

    Goreds1994 Silver Belt

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    Neither fight between Cruickshank/Yves or IVF/Yves was good. They were quite boring. That being said I thought Yves won both fights imo. He also looked decent against Ferguson who is a much higher level of competition, caught him flush with a couple head kicks but Ferguson has a granite jaw and took them.
    The age thing is overrated to me. Yves is not in his prime anymore obviously but he is still a quality fighter. I just don't rate Hallman that highly outside of his toughness. I think Yves is a good play at +160.

    I could be wrong here. I've admittedly always been a fan of Yves. I actually think I am considering a play on 4 of the 6 underdogs so far that have been released (Caraway, High, Yves & Khabilov).
     
  9. NeoNinjaFC

    NeoNinjaFC Banned Banned

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    Just watched some footage on Hallman and to tell you the truth I don't like what I see. Yves might be the play here.
     
  10. efalk1322

    efalk1322 Silver Belt

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    3u on RDA+Dodson to start. Gonna watch some tape when I get home.
     
  11. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Opening odds / Current odds

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  12. betterthanjones

    betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    This card looks like shit for betting
     
  13. hazak

    hazak Red Belt

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    Damn Bobby Green's family were the victim's of a drive by shooting, his brother died and other members of his family were wounded..
     
  14. neomage2021

    neomage2021 Silver Belt

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    I was going to put some money on Dodson, but he is too much of a favorite. I might put a small bet on Khabilov though
     
  15. hazak

    hazak Red Belt

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    Dodson's a big fav here but it's pretty much free money though, Moraga has nothing for him at all. In fact Dodson has already beat him once in a decisive manner, this is a rematch and i don't know why they'd even do it. Nobody else for Dodson to fight right now i guess lol.
     
  16. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Fights are in Albuquerque, New Mexico, so at high altitude and hometown fights for any of the Jackson's MMA guys (Khabilov, Sanchez, Dodson, Perez)
     
  17. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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  18. Spinning Elbow

    Spinning Elbow Orange Belt

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    yep, cardio will be big factor
     
  19. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    mcgregor -263 on sportsinteraction.

    think he'll be -400 or worse on 5d / normal books whenever it releases
     
  20. Kowboy Karl

    Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    I def think there is value in high and khabilov

    Public doesn't know them so lines off for the name opponents that have been on main cards and Henderson former champion via split split split decision, he's good but doesn't finish
     
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