Official UFN 42 (Henderson vs. Khabilov) Betting Thread - Post Your Bets (Part II)

[MMA Goodfella]

Forgot to post nba pix

hit Miami +155

Spoiler

 

[PuertoRican]

What concerns me w/ AA is his past issues w/ taller men with longer reach. In the third Timmy fight AA was jabbed to fucking death en route to a awful ud win for Sylvia. Then, in SF the same thing basically occured w/ BF as Andrei was to content to sit on the outside and eat the jab for 3 rounds. Schaub fits this ill to a tee.

1. Wikipedia lists both Arlovski and Schaub at 6'4. Is that not accurate?

2. Wikipedia lists Schaub as having a 1 inch reach advantage on Arlovski. Is this not correct? If it is, is it really that big of an advantage in your opinion?

3. The 3rd Tim Sylvia vs. Arlovski fight happened just under 8 years ago. Did you miss their 4th fight 2 years ago where Arlovski beat Sylvia's ass?

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I'm picking Schaub to win, as he has more ways to win.

 

[Dooze]

The AA/Schaub fight is probably best for a live bet. I think we'll see the way the fight goes early. If schaub can get a takedown on his first or second attempt I imagine he'll control AA on the ground and take a decision. I don't think he subs AA and his GnP has never looked great.

If AA avoids the takedown for the first couple of attempts he will have the striking advantage and will put Schaub away if he lands clean a couple of times.

Gunna have to watch AA/Rumble. Didn't see the fight first time around so not sure if Rumble won via takedowns or out striking AA. Think Schaub won't want anything to do with stand up other than to set up his shot

Hoping for AA to get a huge KO, glad he's back in the UFC. Still holding out hope that one day Kharitonov will be signed!

 

[Oblivian]

So it's not the Indianapolis Indians? That's the minor league team I thought of lol. Minor league games are fun to go to. I watch a ton of baseball so it's nice to say I saw so and so play while he was still a scrub in A ball.

You might make it back in time for the last couple fights on the main card at least. The prelims are abysmal so it's not like you're missing anything there.

Nope, not Indianapolis Indians. It's the Ft. Wayne Tincaps. Last time, all of the little kids called the mascot "Pothead".

Spoiler

 

[Jeffplsgo]

agreed on the system being flawed. but i go back to what i originally said, if i showed you last night's fight then gave you the opportunity to bet on pearson or diego, 100% of people would bet on pearson at -140 (or whatever he was come fight time) even with diego's home town advantage being a factor. the fight wasnt close enough for that it to even come into consideration; pearson won that fight convincingly

What does that have to do with anything? You werent shown the fight before the bet. What you knew before however was that Diego is a decision stealing machine in his home town.

 

[Card]

What an awesome main card. 4 fights hovering at -130 and 3 fights that had odds flip.

Opening odds / Current odds

 

[cberasi]

What does that have to do with anything? You werent shown the fight before the bet. What you knew before however was that Diego is a decision stealing machine in his home town.

it means you capped the fight wrong and ross pearson at -140 had terrific value. 15 or 15 mma analysts scored the fight for pearson and 14 of 15 scored it 30-27, if you run that scenario back over an increased sample size and randomize judges you are going to lose your bet very often.

 

[Oblivian]

You both have a point. It's very clear that Pearson fought better than his odds indicated, however, it was a possibility that judges would favor Diego even if he lost in his hometown. Even factoring that in, I have a hard time arguing Pearson wasn't the right side and I definitely disagree with Diego being the right side. The only people that can feel good about their bet on that fight are the ones who bet the fight goes to decision or the over. Pearson backers got fucked and Diego backers won dirty.

 

[Card]

Good for pictures / interviews

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov
https://twitter.com/MightyMouseUFC
https://twitter.com/AliPuncherKing

Rory MacDonald vs. Tyron Woodley
https://twitter.com/rory_macdonald
https://twitter.com/twooodley

Ryan Bader vs. Rafael Cavalcante
https://twitter.com/RyanBader
https://twitter.com/RAFAEL__FEIJAO

Brendan Schaub vs. Andrei Arlovski
https://twitter.com/BrendanSchaub
https://twitter.com/AndreiArlovski

Ovince St. Preux vs. Ryan Jimmo
https://twitter.com/003_OSP
https://twitter.com/RyanJimmo

Daniel Sarafian vs. Kiichi Kunimoto
https://twitter.com/danielsarafian
https://twitter.com/StrasserKiichi

Valerie Letourneau vs. Elizabeth Phillips
https://twitter.com/ValTroubleMMA
https://twitter.com/SIKJITSU

Mike Easton vs. Yves Jabouin
https://twitter.com/mikeeastonmma
https://twitter.com/TigerJabouin

Kajan Johnson vs. Tae Hyun Bang
https://twitter.com/IamRagin
http://www.ufc.ca/fighter/Tae-Hyun-Bang

Roland Delorme vs. Michinori Tanaka
https://twitter.com/rolanddelorme1
https://twitter.com/Pnori_Pnori

Jason Saggo vs. Josh Shockley
https://twitter.com/jasonsaggo
https://twitter.com/JoshShockleymma

 

[Oblivian]

New thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/official-ufc-174-betting-thread-post-your-bets-2758787/

Golf result:

Spoiler

Updated my totals with a $2.50 parlay loss on Field over Crane. I really don't regret betting it at close to even odds though. His game was off, but no one could take advantage of it. I really think if you ran that situation over 5 times, he'd lose at least 3 of 5.

 

[Dooze]

I backed Diego but admit I got mad lucky. I backed him for 3 main reasons: his style is favourable to judges, he was the hometown fighter, and I thought he would trouble Pearson with his aggressive style.

The first two still had the influence I imagined (though much more than ever before), the last one was the most surprising. I thought Diego would constantly be in his face, but other than flurries at the end, he seemed extremely timid. He was content to sit back and let Pearson dictate the pace.

If they fought again I'd back Pearson, but if there was some guarantee that Sanchez would fight as aggressively as he did in the Melendez fight, or late rounds of the Ellenberger fight, I'd probably back Diego again, just because of the first two factors and that I don't think Pearson would have found as much success if Diego fought as his usual aggressive self.

Obviously the decision was shocking, but other than that what surprised me most was how passive he was for about 13-14 minutes of the fight. The main reason to bet Diego is that style, so that changing was one of the most surprising things for me.