Official UFN 41 and TUF Brazil 3 Finale Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, May 26, 2014.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    I'm on hiatus after a rough streak besides a couple tiny plays. Current plays and totals below.

    Field over Matsuyama (Crowne) + Alcantara + Niinimaki: $5 to win $4.53
    Field over D. Johnson (Crowne) + Miocic/Maldonado over 2.5: $5 to win $5.17
    Field over McIlroy (Memorial) + Maia + Munhoz: $5 to win $4.11
    Ogle/Blanco over 2.5: $5 to win $3.85 $8.85
    Strickland + Jason: $2.50 to win $6.53
    Cedenblad +3.5 handicap + Carmont: $2.50 to win $3.80
    Not Dober ITD + Peralta/Jason ITD + Munoz/Mousasi starts 3: $2.50 to win $5.21

    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $111.48 Running Profit/Loss = -$16.02 (Approximate ROI for year -1.14%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2519.60 Total Profit = $2490.60 (Approximate ROI: 14.75%)
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2014
  2. R3 v3r 3n T

    R3 v3r 3n T White Belt

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    Sunday results
    We'll get lost units back, as I'm feeling extremely confident in my bets today

    Tampa Rays -120 vs RedSox 3 units
    St. Louis -1 (-112) @ 'Nati Reds 5 units
    Zona D'Backs(Game1) -110 @ Mets 3 units
    DET Tigers -1 (-128) vs Rangers 3 units
    Jays/A's FirstFive innings U5.5 runs -123 3 units
    Parlay: Yankees -1 (Tanaka) & Rays/RedSox U8.5 +178 2.5 units
    OAK Athletics -119 @ BlueJays 2.5 units
    Boston/Rays FirstFive U4.5 runs -158 1 unit

    NBA game: I'm confident in a combination of 3 wagers tonight.
    Adding an extra bet to my baseball schedule for tonight: St.L/Cin'Nati FirstFive U4 runs -163 3.5 units

    +~6.4 units

    Monday baseball
    I put a dent in my previous losses, and am very happy about that. Baseball record now stands @ -8.85. Here are my plays on a monday afternoon:

    ATL Braves -133 vs RedSox 2.5 units
    TEX Rangers -109 @ Twins 2 units
    LAD/CIN U6 +105 1 unit
    COL/PHI O8 -122 2 units
    NBA: Heat/Indy U183.5 (-105) 1.75 units

    Arrelione, Ty for considering to be helpful with the world cup. Don't know soccer much, but like the thought of getting into it. Plus I heard you had great results before.

    Big thx to goodfella for killin the french open yesterday 8)
     
  3. psucarney

    psucarney White Belt

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    UFN 41
    Pesta over Magomedov
    Ogle over Blanco
    Pawlak over Sobotta
    Alcantara over Lee
    Jotko over Cenenblad
    Hein over Dober (LOCK)
    Niinimaki over Backstrom
    Barnatt over Strickland
    Carmont over Dollaway
    Mousasi over Munoz

    TUF Brazil 3 Finale
    Munhoz over Hobar
    Rogerio de Lima over Moreira
    Silva over Abreu
    Souza over Eddiva
    Umalatov over Thiago
    Magomedov over Damm
    Silverio over Chavez (LOCK)
    Bezerra over Peralta
    Yakovlev over Maia
    Alexandre Jr. over Alves
    Miranda over Carlos Jr.
    Maldonado over Miocic
     
  4. betterthanjones

    betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    Pretty excited for like, 12 hours straight of UFC fights this coming weekend but totally gonna bleed my eyes out watching tape of these unknowns.
     
  5. yacuna island

    yacuna island Orange Belt

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    Carmont's fight/Dollaway fight goes to a decision is a pretty obvious bet I'm looking at.

    Magomedov defeats Damm is another very confident wager.

    Maldonado looked terrible in the first round of his last fight against Villante. He only won because Villiante gassed as bad as any athlete has in any sport ever.
    Stipe is a 1000 x better than Gian

    Stipe is going to smash him, Fabio might weigh 220 but a lot of that will be puppy fat he really should be fighting at 185.

    Stipe will be tossing him around like Cormier did to Hendo, I know Fabio has zombie durability but I'm not confident he survives too long. Maybe if Stipe wants to pace himself because of the Brazilian sauna stadiums they have he'll survive.
     
  6. UFCFantasyMVP

    UFCFantasyMVP Blue Belt

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    Great predictions! I got Strickland, Eddiva and Miocic though. But I've had my eye on Silverio for a bit, he's good, no doubt! But I'm curious, what makes you SO sure he's going to beat Chavez? Do you know something valuable (That I/possibly others likely don't) about either fighter? Yeah, Silverio's got sKIttLls...idk much about Chavez though, except his record's unblemished.
     
  7. Danespina

    Danespina Gold Belt

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    How's Iuri Alcantara's cardio?
     
  8. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    while certainly not terrible, he does fade a bit. first round generally his best. third round generally his worst.
     
  9. Winded Walrus

    Winded Walrus Purple Belt

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    UPSET ALERTS odds from Bet on Mixed Martial Arts at Bovada Sportsbook

    The Recent Upsets Will Continue! :icon_twis
    Parlay -- +180 Strickland / +195 Backstrom $5 to profit $36.30
    Parlay -- +170 Ogle / -135 Jotko / +135 Dollaway $2 to profit $20.09
    Parlay -- -210 Pawlak / -400 Alcantara / -250 Niinimaki $5 to profit $7.92

    +230 Munoz $10 to profit $23
    +135 Dollaway $10 to profit $13.5
    +180 Strickland $5 to profit $9
    +195 Backstrom $5 to profit $9.75
    +170 Pesta $5 to profit $8.50
    +300 Lee $2 to profit $6


    Total risk = $49 to profit $134.06
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2014
  10. Danespina

    Danespina Gold Belt

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    Only reason I ask is because Vaughn Lee looked like Dillashaw in his last fight, although yes that was against Nam Phan. Still Lee'striking was on point and his output was high. The best I've ever seen him. Thinking he could take rounds 2 and 3 if he's doesn't get finished in the first.
     
  11. Gametheory

    Gametheory Brown Belt

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    Just put Maldanado over Miocic first, so we can stop reading. :D
    If it weren't 5 rounds, I'd bet Miocic as 7:1 favourite. Maldanado has no chance but to eek out a decision if Miocic gasses.
     
  12. HeyBoone

    HeyBoone Brown Belt

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    Alcantara certainly has the skills to get a submission should they go that route but he seems to me like a guy who will more than likely stand and trade. Judging by Lee's striking, pace, and stamina from his last fight I think he will be a tough out for Alcantara in a stand up battle.

    Placed a small bet on him at +290. I really don't see any value in Iuri at his current odds.
     
  13. Gametheory

    Gametheory Brown Belt

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    I'd rather bet Lee by decision. He doesn't have skills to submit him, but Alcantara can definitely submit Lee.
     
  14. Tyrannosaurus rex

    Tyrannosaurus rex GrizzlyTitan

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    Maldonado isn't a very good fighter. He has decent boxing, but horrible defense, and he won vs Gian due to Gian gassing.

    Miocic will lay a beatdown on Maldonado in rd. 1 and 2 IMO and I'm not sure if he can survive those rounds. And even if he does, will he have enough left to take over Miocic? Stipe's cardio may be inferior, but how well can Fabio fight after being brutalized for 2 rounds? I mean, Stipe has solid takedowns and GNP and good boxing. Fabio has poor TDD and gets tagged a lot. I think it will be somewhat similar to Maldonado vs Glover.

    Besides, Miocic has shown he can go 3 rounds vs Nelson and Gonzaga, both of whom are bigger and better than Fabio.

    I don't see Fabio knocking Miocic out. Stipe has a decent chin actually. He took quite a buch of shots from Struve before going down, and he was not out cold. Hurt, yes, but not unconscious. Miocic also gassed, got poked and slipped with all contributed to the stoppage. I think that was Miocic being gassed, which led him to be unable to recover from the punches.

    Miocic has improved his cardio, so I don't think he'll gas (badly). And if he will it will not be bad or early enough for Maldonado to exploit it.

    That's how I see it anyway.
     
  15. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    tuf brazil 3 finals (both weights), don't read if you haven't watched yet?

    MW: lyoto vs warlley - both guys showed good explosiveness early.. lyoto is much more technical/skilled IMO, but he gasses so bad.. warlley had those quick fights so hard to know..

    picking lyoto, even tho he robbed best guy from 185 got robbed in the last semifinal (abreu)

    HW: miranda vs shoeface - definitley favor miranda on the feet, but shoeface super impressive on ground and not bad on feet.. i guess i gotta go w/shoeface due to "more ways to win" -- both of them are small heavyweights, but both are very promising.
     
  16. Tyrannosaurus rex

    Tyrannosaurus rex GrizzlyTitan

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    Anyone have any early thoughts on Palelei vs Rosholt btw?

    Rosholt might be able to put pressure on Soa early in the fight and comfortably win rd 2 and 3. Is his wrestling good enough for that, or will Soa shrug him off and KO him on the feet? Or even take Rosholt down?
     
  17. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

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    Wow just watched 173, had 120 on tj at +700 +765
    Also a flyer on tj itd at +1500 and fight ends r5 at +1700 and tj tko at +2400
    10 bucks on tj r5 +7000
    100 on fight starts r3, 5 more seconds and my over 4.5 would have hit as well but Im not complaining
     
  18. lamont13

    lamont13 White Belt

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    Just placed an accumulator on these winners on Berlin card:

    Maximo Blanco
    Francis Carmont
    Magnus Cedenblad
    Tom Niinimaki (probably butchered his surname)
    Sean Strickland
    Nick Hein


    What do you think?
     
  19. GAP14

    GAP14 Green Belt

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    Strickland and Blanco are big question marks. I think Blanco beats Ogle handedly (fellow Venezuelan here) but he's shown terrible fight IQ in the past and is a dirty fighter as well. I'm surprised he has a job in the UFC in all honesty. I think he's got plenty of ways to win but I'm not touching him at current odds.

    I need to watch tape on Strickland but Barnatt has looked very promising in his UFC career thus far. I have a pretty free day today with it being Memorial Day so I'm gonna go through and watch some tape on most of these guys.
     
  20. GAP14

    GAP14 Green Belt

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    If you really had all these bets, you must've had one of your best nights ever. Good job
     
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