Official UFC on Fox 17 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Oblivian

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Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Singles
Usman: $11.25 to win $5.36 $16.61

Oliveira: $7.50 to win $7.88 $15.38
Lentz: $7.50 to win $6.25 $13.75
Cowboy: $6.25 to win $11.25 Loss
McCrory: $6.25 to win $9.38 $15.63
Alers: $5 to win $3.70 $5
Diaz: $3.75 to win $13.50 $17.25
Hill: $3.75 to win $5.81 $9.56
Overeem: $3.75 to win $10.88 $14.63
Heun/Williams ITD: $3.75 to win $2.42 Loss
Ngannou: $2.50 to win $2.08 $4.58
Hassan (Scorecards = no action): $2.50 to win $1.95 Loss
Almeida: $1.25 to win $5.63 $6.88
Marquard: $1.25 to win $4.38 $6.63

Risk of $66.25 $125.90

Parlays
Overeem/JDS ITD + Not Johnson ITD: $5 to win $4.52 $9.52

Ozzy + Kaufman: $3.75 to win $2.70 Loss
Almeida/Palmer ITD + Not Ngannou Rd 1: $2.50 to win $1.95 Loss
Moraes/Peralta ITD + Mar[kos/Kowal starts 2: $2.50 to win $2.13 $4.63

Risk of $13.75 $14.15


TOTAL RISK OF $80 $140.05

TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2714.19 Total Profit = $2695.19 (Approximate ROI: 12.8541%)
 
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I really like Cowboy, got him at 3.10 (+210) and I expect the line to come tighter. I favour overall Dos Anjos but only by a slim margin so I think great value. JDS has this and I think Diaz could be a solid bet too, Johnson has never impressed me too much.
 
Overeem, cowboy, and diaz. you're a good man, oblivian.
 
Kinda suprised that mcgoats line got so much better, frankie opened +290 on 5d

Even the aldo line improved on bm
 
Not liking this card so much, feels like a few dogs could play out as well as a few fights to pass on.

Even with RDA/cowboy and Reem/jds nothing too predictable in those fights and that's after just watching all 4 guys last 3-4 fights!
 
Not liking this card so much, feels like a few dogs could play out as well as a few fights to pass on.

Even with RDA/cowboy and Reem/jds nothing too predictable in those fights and that's after just watching all 4 guys last 3-4 fights!

Reem is getting KTFO. He ain't avoiding JDS's bombs for three rounds.
 
Not liking this card so much, feels like a few dogs could play out as well as a few fights to pass on.

Even with RDA/cowboy and Reem/jds nothing too predictable in those fights and that's after just watching all 4 guys last 3-4 fights!

I think MJ is gonna be good parlay fodder soon. Nate Diaz looks to be in great shape so i see him getting bet quite a bit. Atleast i hope so.
 
I predicted JDS KO with a very high degree of certainty and was maybe rightfully mocked, but let me see those naysayers hop on the prop real soon.
Screen-Shot-2014-07-16-at-9.55.49-AM.png
 
I think MJ is gonna be good parlay fodder soon. Nate Diaz looks to be in great shape so i see him getting bet quite a bit. Atleast i hope so.

I can't fathom backing MJ as a heavy favorite here, particularly throwing him in parlays. Nate can snag a sub on him pretty easily if it hits the ground, and unless MJ uses a lot of movement throughout, he's not going to look much better standing. The guys that fight best against someone like Nate are the ones who stick and move or can also grapple well. Look at Nate's record and literally all of his losses since 2011 are guys that are well rounded w/ strong grappling skills.
 
I can't fathom backing MJ as a heavy favorite here, particularly throwing him in parlays. Nate can snag a sub on him pretty easily if it hits the ground, and unless MJ uses a lot of movement throughout, he's not going to look much better standing. The guys that fight best against someone like Nate are the ones who stick and move or can also grapple well. Look at Nate's record and literally all of his losses since 2011 are guys that are well rounded w/ strong grappling skills.

agreed. already put down some money on nate. could easily see mj losing another split decision or even getting subbed.
 
I can't fathom backing MJ as a heavy favorite here, particularly throwing him in parlays. Nate can snag a sub on him pretty easily if it hits the ground, and unless MJ uses a lot of movement throughout, he's not going to look much better standing. The guys that fight best against someone like Nate are the ones who stick and move or can also grapple well. Look at Nate's record and literally all of his losses since 2011 are guys that are well rounded w/ strong grappling skills.

How does Nate take this to the ground though? And standing, sure Nate has good technique but he is punch drunk to the point where u cant even hear what he is saying.
 
so had a nice chat with the customer service at totesports about my rose/pvs under 4.5 that was graded as a loss 63 euro returns 126euro

even gave them the email where one trader corrected the bet on their mirror site but that fuckers just kept giving me the same answer

then I just gave up

We have already confirmed this within our betting rules, is there anything else I can help you with?
[rickard] yes go fuck yourself you thieves
 
too much value to pass up.

$1.50 I'm willing to lose.

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How does Nate take this to the ground though? And standing, sure Nate has good technique but he is punch drunk to the point where u cant even hear what he is saying.

Let's not act like Nate has always sounded like a scholar. I think on TUF they even used subtitles for him at times - lol. Well for one, Castillo put Michael Johnson on his ass with a punch. Medadi flat out wore down Johnson before getting the sub. Jury grapplefucked him and his wrestling really isn't that good. Sass got Johnson on the ground by flat out tricking him. With Nate's striking and pressure, I wouldn't rule out Johnson dropping down at some point.

I have no issue with someone favoring Johnson, but you are going to back a heavy favorite that has been subbed by Madadi against a guy who subbed Jim Miller and beat the shit out of Cerrone standing? There are a lot better guys to play at -400 or over.
 
nates wrasslin is horrible, his only takedowns are low percentage judo throws

he wont be taking mj down with that uchi mata and mj will propably be much to fast on the feet
 
nates wrasslin is horrible, his only takedowns are low percentage judo throws

he wont be taking mj down with that uchi mata and mj will propably be much to fast on the feet

People also thought Cerrone would be too much for Nate on the feet. Cerrone opened at -400 for that fight. People thought Jim Miller would be too much for Diaz, and we saw what happened there. All that I am saying is that Diaz has played spoiler before and Johnson has flaws. Johnson has all of the tools to win here with a smart gameplan, but with a slip up he could be fucked. I also wouldn't count on Diaz's shit talking not getting to Johnson and Johnson starting to stay in the pocket.
 
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