Official UFC on Fox 14 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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1/24/2015 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1011 Gustafsson wins by 5 round decision* +462 vs Not Gustafsson by 5 round decision
Risking $175.00 To Win $808.50


It already dropped to @+365 so I'm pretty stoked about this bet, leaves me some room to hedge if I want. AJ DEC @+850 sounds pretty good too. I know they both throw big power, but I kinda see this going to a decision and the odds are good enough to make a play on that.
 
MidgardSerpent said:
1/24/2015 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1011 Gustafsson wins by 5 round decision* +462 vs Not Gustafsson by 5 round decision
Risking $175.00 To Win $808.50


It already dropped to @+365 so I'm pretty stoked about this bet, leaves me some room to hedge if I want. AJ DEC @+850 sounds pretty good too. I know they both throw big power, but I kinda see this going to a decision and the odds are good enough to make a play on that.
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That's a great bet IMO. When I look at this fight on paper it looks like a competitive but an unanimous dec win for Gus. Rumble worries me a lot, my gut doesn't like that bet as much but I am still hitting that dec prop.
 
cs02132 said:
Depending on their line up, take an asian handicap on Chelsea vs liverpool tomorrow

i would wait and see who they play though, if its the starting line up chelsea should win IMO. Mourinho said they need to win trophies in order for this team to go down in history so i think theyll play a strong squad, especially since its the first leg and theyre away

idk if you bet soccer though so maybe dont listen to me lol
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I do bet on football, I'm a Chelsea fan too. :) Thing is I hate betting on Chelsea.
 
anyone like Not Gus ITD?
its at -105 and I see it hitting a decision but that will even cover Rumble KO
 
vkram said:
I do bet on football, I'm a Chelsea fan too. :) Thing is I hate betting on Chelsea.
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Lol they've been winning me money all season! i just checked the pre match betting on 5dimes and although they are a bit juicy i like the +0.5 -278 and +0.25 227, or even the -0.25 at 114

if hazard, oscar, matic, etc play tomorrow i fancy them to win
 
I just want to publicly thank Oblivion for taking the time to shed some light on subscription based touters.
 
Sushi Mane said:
anyone like Not Gus ITD?
its at -105 and I see it hitting a decision but that will even cover Rumble KO
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I do like that, i am trying to see how Gus wins this fight aside from a dec? when it was first announced my gut reaction was that Gus wont finish AJ but AJ can KO gus
 
WOOO! Hawks Livebets hit!
Hawks -10.5 and Hawks -5.5 +60 :)
(they won by 11)
 
OneWarrior1 said:
I just want to publicly thank Oblivion for taking the time to shed some light on subscription based touters.
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ditto
cs02132 said:
I do like that, i am trying to see how Gus wins this fight aside from a dec? when it was first announced my gut reaction was that Gus wont finish AJ but AJ can KO gus
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I could see like a round 4 TKO but in general i agree.
 
2 parlays I just placed:

Moose + Davis
McMann + Silva

I'm confident in these and they payout great.

I lean Gus here. More movement, possibly faster, iron chin. Gus has held his own against powerful strikers like Manuwa, Shogun. What does AJ offer that's different?

NBA

Riding the Hawks and Warriors all day err day.

Bucks +1
Grizzlies -3

Both are medium confidence
 
i think AJ has much more power than shogun and manuwa. he is a beast at 205
 
I hope Aldo ends up at -220 at the highest.. i want to bet him but i dont want to keep my money tied up until May

edit: orange belt! woot woot! lol

got my yellow and orange in betting threads
 
Holy shit, dem some crazy odds. I think people are actually betting djoko because I think his odds were around -8000 this weekend?

Mon 1/19 101 Novak Djokovic -10250
10:00PM 102 Aljaz Bedene +4125



cs02132 said:
I hope Aldo ends up at -220 at the highest.. i want to bet him but i dont want to keep my money tied up until May

edit: orange belt! woot woot! lol

got my yellow and orange in betting threads
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Oh man, they opened Aldo @-140...
 
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Timurd123 said:
Anyone betting Tennis today ?
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Yep I'm having a punt. I'm on the below if you are interested

Garcia Lopez +100
Poulie +2.5 Sets -160
Poulie SU +325 (tiny bet)
Lajovic +150
E Ymer +117
P Lorenzi +195
M Copil -105
 
UAK said:
A site that charges money for picks should always include the following or else you shouldn't pay a cent:

1. transparency. After the matches are over post all the premium picks so people can easily track results. Clearly list number of units, bets, ROI and profit. Should be easy to access all previous picks. And most importantly: LIFETIME results.

2. Be clear to what price you're recommending a bet. Recommending a bet for -130 or -150 is a big difference since we're already talking about small margins. Ideally a fixed schedule to post picks so subscribers can grab the pick for the same odds.

3. as Oblivion said an ROI of around 5% for MMA is not worth it. If it was baseball or college bb or any other sport where volume isn't an issue, 5% would be fantastic. 5% ROI for MMA equals nickels, too few mma fights. Think most solid regs in here are around 10% so why on earth pay for premium subscription when you can crush those results by just tailing bets in here.

As someone who works with online marketing, I can say that 99,9% of touters are marketers and scammers first and sports bettors second. It's kinda like the weight loss industry, a few serious methods and then a shitload of marketers trying to sell you easy tricks to drop 50 pounds in 2 weeks. Both industries are infested by scammers.
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Great post pretty much sums up the tout industry. Really seems to be about exploiting people with gambling issues or selling it as "sports investing" .

Some people look at these people like they are experts or have some kind of "inside knowledge" when in truth they are no better at capping than most of us (when we put the time in that is).

Take 3 random regulars from this thread add a smick website + a podcast + an active social media presence and there you have it.
 
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