Official UFC on Fox 14 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Ogle vs. Amirkhani

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/12/5/7337311/welcome-to-the-ufc-makwan-amirkhani

Who is Makwan Amirkhani?

"Mr. Finland" as his also known (following his runner-up placing for said title in 2012), is a 26-year old Iranian-born Finnish fighter out of Turku Muay Thai. It's a fairly new gym, but Amirkhani has also recently spent some time at Allstars down in Sweden. Beyond his training, Amirkhani brings a really decent 10-2 record with him to the UFC. He may only be coming in off a single win after dropping a decision to regional talent Adam Ward, but that loss snapped a seven fight win streak including a victory over uber-prospect Tom Duquesnoy. Amirkhani has a pretty extensive record in greco roman and freestyle wrestling in Finland, prior to his MMA career.

What you should expect:

The baseline of Amirkhani's game is power wrestling. He likes to shoot for a power double, elevate his opponent and hit the big slam. Barring that, he's decent at picking a single leg, and looking for trips or running the pipe to back control for the takedown. That isn't to say, and despite his background, that Amirkhani is a particularly gifted wrestler however. He tends to enter his shots with little or no setup, and if his first attempt gets stuffed, will often pull guard in search of a leg lock or other low percentage submission. Amirkhani is actually a pretty proficient chain grappler, so he doesn't tend to put himself at a lot of risk to take damage when pulling guard, but he can, and has really easily given up rounds.

Otherwise, Amirkhani's striking game is notably low output. He throws occasional kicks and winging punches, most of which are there for him to enter into the clinch and search for takedowns. When he can work his takedown game, Amirkhani has a somewhat over-aggressive grappling style from the top and is prone to give up position searching for submissions. However, he does possess a great submission chain from front headlock position, which is a real quality skill for a young fighter. All told, Amirkhani could have a decent future in the UFC as an action grappler, but he needs to really shore up some holes in his striking and his strategic game to find consistent success.

 
Taisumov vs. Christodoulou

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/12/...s-mairbek-taisumov-yan-cabral-injury-mma-news

Who is Anthony Christodoulou?

A Greek-born American fighter who has made the bulk of his career fighting out of Greece, 27-year old Tony Christodoulou will enter the UFC most recently having trained out of Fight Lab Yokkao in Bangkok, Thailand. Although, I am almost certain that will not be his camp for his UFC debut. For his most recent US bouts, he's been training out of Renzo Gracie Brooklyn, where he'll be for a fight in Sweden, I'm not sure. Christodoulou makes his way to the octagon with a 12-4 (although I've seen him listed at 16-4) record having started his pro career 0-3, before going 12-1 over the next four years. His only loss since his early stretch came to current UFC lightweight Yosdenis Cedeno. His record isn't otherwise notable, although wins over Erik Uresk (wrestling coach for Phuket Top Team) and Alexis Savvidis at least look good on paper. Also notable, in keeping with recent UFC late callups, Christodoulou recently dropped to featherweight, and I'd expect him to return to the division, win or lose after his UFC debut.

What you should expect:

As a grappling based fighter first and foremost, the rest of Christodoulou's game hasn't really developed that well. He's mostly an arm puncher, and while he throws his hands quickly and in volume, he often does so with his chin up and reaching way out over his his feet. His wrestling game isn't all that advanced either, he's more dependent on opponents willingly taking the fight to the ground, or making mistakes, than he is a real natural takedown threat. Once on the ground, he's got a very heavy, positionally solid top game, and does a good job to stay active as he hunts for submission opportunities. His biggest assets, overall, are his size and toughness. He was a pretty big lightweight and will make for a really big featherweight. Despite his striking woes he's never been KO'd. All of this together means that he's likely to be one of those fighters that drags better competition into ugly, sloppy brawls, potentially even taking a few upset wins because of it.

What this means for his debut:

There's every chance that Mairbek Taisumov lets himself be drawn into one of those brawls. He has had notable problems with output, and is far too willing to clinch and grind for a fighter as striking dependent as he is. Still, he's got a beastly kicking game, and is a much more well rounded and technically adept fighter than Christodoulou. Even in the chance that Christodoulou can make this a very ugly fight, I would still say it's Taisumov's fight to lose.

 
Erokhin vs. Pesta

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/11/...vyweight-prospect-konstantin-erokhin-mma-news

Who is Konstantin Erokhin?

The 32-year old Erokhin comes to MMA as a Russian champion in hand-to-hand combat. He started his pro fighting career in 2012, and since a rough, spinning backfist KO Loss in his debut against Denis Goltsov, has rattled of 9 straight wins, 8 of them by first round finish.And it's not just regional cans that he's beating up on. Erokhin has taken on the best available talent, with wins over Sokoudjou, Brett Rogers, Polish prospect Michal Andryszak, recent UFC sign & release fighter Richard Odoms, and WSOF HW Dave Huckaba. That's as good a run as any non-UFC or Bellator heavyweight at claim, and puts him on a good track for UFC success.

What you should expect:

Simply put, power boxing. The center point of everything Erokhin does is his ability to weave into the pocket behind short powerful hook combinations. And when I say powerful, I don't mean he hits hard, I mean that he is a destroyer of souls. He's not a purely aggressive fighter at heart, however. Rather he looks to counter strike from the outside, and pours it on once he connects clean. He also has improved steadily since his debut, showing better cardio (at least in the Rogers fight) and better timing on his strikes and even the occasional powerful low and head kick. What flashes of it there have been, have shown his defensive wrestling to be solid (he's never been taken down) and his ground game serviceable. He's not a fighter who's going to throw submissions up or even take his opponent down, but seems to have built his game well around his strength. And oh what a strength it is.

 
Bektic vs. Redmond

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/1/1...d-vs-mirsad-bektic-alan-omer-injured-mma-news

Who is Paul Redmond?

"Redser" Redmond is a 28-year old fighter coming to Zuffa from Cage Warriors FC. He fights out of Team Ryano MMA, where he trains alongside Neil Seery. Redmond will be making his way to the UFC on the back of a 10-4 record. Currently, he's on a two fight win streak, going undefeated in 2014, since dropping a New Year's Eve bout, a year ago, to Mateusz Teodorczuk at CWFC 63. Otherwise, Redmond's record is pretty decent considering his consistent level of competition. Other than a debut loss to Richard McLarty, all of his losses are to strong prospects on the rise. And he has wins over Philip Mulpeter, Ryan Roddy, and Alexis Savvidis among a slew of regional vets. Redmond will certainly be coming to the UFC well tested on the regional circuit. Outside of his MMA career, he's also a night club DJ.

What you should expect:

Redmond has a developing boxing game that seems predicated on his ability to move forward and pressure his opponent. He has good strong punching fundamentals, although he does tend to overreach his feet a lot, which is why forward pressure is so important to his striking; his body tends to carry him forward as he strikes. In the clinch he's got a very strong, if somewhat simple wrestling game, and is very adept at snagging kicks for the takedown. From top position, Redmond has a very heavy base, and is adept at working position for submission opportunities without putting himself in danger, or letting opponents off the hook. Interestingly, Redmond has 3 wins by toe-hold in his career, so it's definitely something to look for if he gets into a 50/50 guard, or a prolonged scramble.

What this means for his debut:

Redmond has an interesting opponent in front of him in Bektic. Bektic is almost certainly the more technical wrestler, but he's not a dynamically better striker, and given Redmond's strong grappling game, he may not be comfortable spending extended time working against him on the ground. Neither man is the world's most adept striker, and while Bektic is the more technical of the two, Redmond may be the more fluid combination striker right now. Still, it's hard to pick against the Bosnian-American here. His wrestling ability and top flight athletic tools (as well as his power) make him the obvious choice for a betting favorite. But, I wouldn't be shocked if Redmond was able to find the opportunity for an upset submission win.

 
Joe Duffy vs Vagner Rocha set for UFC 185
 
Quick thoughts on bader/davis

Davis has beat gt and machida, 2 guys that beat bader recently both wrestling backgrounds, baders got the more powerful hands but can get wreckless and chinny if especially if he eats a jab or punch unexpected. Davis I feel is the better grappler and wrestler in MMA, bader was getting taken down by osp and gt at times during their fights where as phil has recently gone back to what he does best his grappling and wrestling roots and I expect him to use his greater fight iq and his better reach jabs/kicks at range to set up his grinding grappling style to keep bader at bay.

I think baders got perhaps a tighter single leg take down, but davis uses his set ups and head movement better then bader and his grappling and wrestling should help him get reversals or sprawls to keep his grinding style more at play then baders at least.
 
Luca says he went 2-2 for break even on Sherdog radio post fight show, says he didn't lose anything.

He got a lot of heat recently for not including his free bets with his paid bets in his overall tally. (His free bets did poorly.) If I was to give him the benefit of the doubt I'd say he's only applying the standard that others are holding him to. But you have to wonder if, say Seattle lost, he would have included that free play in the post fight recap. He seems to have a tendency to spin outcomes and stats that put his bets in the most favorable light.
 
Not starting a fight here, but I said I'd do this so I did it. I think it's important to show transparent results for any site charging money as well. Again, this is not a knock as the site is profitable, but seeing your return on investment is important and showing that is important.

Below are the total results for mmabettingtips.com starting from the beginning on this link: http://mmabettingtips.com/category/mma-ufc-betting-results/ Keep in mind this is prior to the results from last nights event as they weren't posted yet. The good news is that I actually totaled a higher profit than what he listed. He is showing 99.79 units of profit, whereas I got 113.99 units of profit. I double checked my work, but it's possible I missed something. I'm confident the total units risked should be correct as it's easy to add. If you think anything is incorrect, let me know.

TOTAL UNITS RISKED: 2150.5 UNITS
TOTAL PROFIT: 113.99 UNITS
ROI (RETURN ON INVESTMENT) = 5.3%


Again, not trying to start a fight, but a paying site should disclose this type of information. When analyzing results, this is extremely important. I've said this criticizing other sites so I'm not picking on 12th man, I don't think it's worth it for anyone to pay for a betting service with an ROI below double digits.

If someone's standard bet is 10u, wouldn't it make more sense to move that decimal over and make 1u the standard size?
 
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card: tyvm for the info on some of these new guys
 
Musoke/tumenov

Just watched bit of tape on both guys last few fights, I do like musoke good solid all rounder with a high output striking fighter backed up with good fight iq. Shown he can recover from heavy shots and is technical also. Tumenov however while not quite as crisp and technical has good fight iq with range, timing and angles. Its tumenovs power which could make the difference here since musoke I feel can't handle power shots to much.

My only concern in this fight is if tumenov goes for that one kill shot, he really needs to mix in combos and will need to match a higher output in striking coming in since musoke does a better job with his technical output in striking I do feel though tumenov could land just one or two power strikes and that alone could win him the round on damage alone. I think tumenov edges it with power and grit.
 
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Quick thoughts on bader/davis

I think people are respecting Bader too much, since I've noticed a lot of people giving him a chance and avoiding this fight. Just because Ryan Bader comes from a wrestling background does not mean Davis won't wrestlehump him. It also helps that Davis is terrified of being hit, so he's not going to give Bader many chances for the KO, which I feel is Bader's only chance. If Rumble and Rashad couldn't finish Davis with the beatings they gave him, Bader is not scoring the finish.

I think the only question surrounding Bader/Davis is whether Davis finishes this on the ground or if it's a dull decision.
 
5dimes results
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I guess I shouldn't have bet WSOF and Bellator, kinda sucks to give up so much profit. Still, a very nice weekend.



These were some of my nice hits, I was sweating the over 5.5 fights with all those early finishes though. I'm loving these new props, the more betting options, the better I say. Connor finishing at the time he did was perfect for me, I had a decent amount on the under 1.5 rounds, and I had a few parlays with starts round 2, so I hit all of those bets.


1/18/2015 6:00 PM Props Fighting 12023 Lorenz Larkin wins fastest KO* +2000
Risking $10.00 To Win $200.00


1/18/2015 6:00 PM Props Fighting 10059 Fights to go distance over 5
 
Luca says he went 2-2 for break even on Sherdog radio post fight show, says he didn't lose anything.

Heard that too lol. Hes including an NFL free bet during an MMA radio show... He lost 3.5u on MMA

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Quick thoughts on bader/davis

Davis has beat gt and machida, 2 guys that beat bader recently both wrestling backgrounds, baders got the more powerful hands but can get wreckless and chinny if especially if he eats a jab or punch unexpected. Davis I feel is the better grappler and wrestler in MMA, bader was getting taken down by osp and gt at times during their fights where as phil has recently gone back to what he does best his grappling and wrestling roots and I expect him to use his greater fight iq and his better reach jabs/kicks at range to set up his grinding grappling style to keep bader at bay.

I think baders got perhaps a tighter single leg take down, but davis uses his set ups and head movement better then bader and his grappling and wrestling should help him get reversals or sprawls to keep his grinding style more at play then baders at least.


Fuck I deleted my breakdown on accident and I'm not typing it out again.

My thoughts:
Phil is the better striker technically and defensively. Bader has more power.
Phil is the better MMA wrestler and better wrestling on paper. He beat Bader Su on his run to the NC.
He shows better offensive wrestling vs common opponents. Vinny, Glover, Machida, and Lil Nog are common opponents.
Phil also has better fight IQ and trains out of Alliance. Bader has low fight IQ or just fights too anxious and rushes in.
Bader trains out of a gym he and his college buddies formed.


My lean:
Phil by decision or Sub if bader shoots. I can see him hitting his patented anaconda choke.
Bet is likely 3U total SU and in a parlay and likely a sub prop depending on the odds.
 
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Well for now I just have $ 12 on McGregoat+Mousasi to win $ 4,69.

Im pretty confident in the Moose but at -333 is awful. Same with Phil Davis.

The prelims has pretty decent odds without many huge favourites. This might worth a deeper analysis.
 
Musoke/tumenov

Just watched bit of tape on both guys last few fights, I do like musoke good solid all rounder with a high output striking fighter backed up with good fight iq. Shown he can recover from heavy shots and is technical also. Tumenov however while not quite as crisp and technical has good fight iq with range, timing and angles. Its tumenovs power which could make the difference here since musoke I feel can't handle power shots to much.

My only concern in this fight is if tumenov goes for that one kill shot, he really needs to mix in combos and will need to match a higher output in striking coming in since musoke does a better job with his technical output in striking I do feel though tumenov could land just one or two power strikes and that alone could win him the round on damage alone. I think tumenov edges it with power and grit.

Musoke has a pretty suspect chin, gets tagged on every fight, although his recovery is very high. I feel like if Tumenov tags him, he's gonna finish him with non-stop punches.

However, the problem with Tumenov is that he needs range. A wrestler/grappler can close the distance, get TDs or just control him against the fence, limiting his attack. Musoke can definitely do that and win by points, specially in Sweden.

I would've bet Tumenov +140, but currently idk..
 
Is Chris Beal's fight @ Flyweight? His cardio was bad @ BW I thought.
 
NBA Monday

Spread for Hawks and Warriors separately

What you guys think of a Davis + Moose parlay? Pays out at incredible odds.
 
NBA Monday

Spread for Hawks and Warriors separately

What you guys think of a Davis + Moose parlay? Pays out at incredible odds.

That's my biggest bet of the card so far.
 
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