Official UFC on Fox 14 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 19, 2015.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    Singles
    Tumenov: $10 to win $7.41
    Nedkov: $6.25 to win $7.19 Loss
    Robertson: $5 to win $4 $9
    Ogle: $5 to win $3.85 Loss
    Sicilia: $3.75 to win $4.13
    Taisumov ITD: $3.75 to win $3.94 $7.69
    Pesta: $1.25 to win $3.50 $4.75
    Rumble: $1.25 to win $3
    Bader: $1.25 to win $2.69
    Seery: $1.25 to win $2.31 $3.56

    Risk of $38.75

    Parlays
    Bektic + Mousasi: $10 to win $6.53
    Hendo/Mousasi starts 2 + Ogle/Amirkhani Dec: $5 to win $5.67 Loss
    Johnson/Gus ITD + Davis/Bader Dec: $5 to win $4.77
    Bektic/Redmond ITD + Mousasi/Hendo starts 2 + Gus/Rumble starts 2: $1.25 to win $2.10 Loss

    Risk of $21.25

    TOTAL RISK OF $60

    TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $144.40 Running Profit: $49.40 (Approximate ROI for year 30.78%)
    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2605.78 Total Profit = $2576.78 (Approximate ROI: 14.191%)
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2015
  2. DoUEvenLiftBro

    DoUEvenLiftBro Brown Belt

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    I'm glad to see you're on Nedkov, since that line screamed at me. I will be going with various combos of Stanislav Nedkov, Phil Davis, and Gegard Mousasi, but will reach this thread for inspiration.

    Questions:
    -Does anyone else think Bader is made for Davis to finish? I despise Davis and think he should be cut for boredom, but he has the wrestling chops to take Bader down, and Bader's game on the bottom isn't very inspiring.

    -Why is Nikita Krylov the favorite? He looks completely lost on his back, and he is fighting a pretty decent wrestler, who took 2 rounds against Thiago Silva
     
  3. artisabang

    artisabang Green Belt

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    Nedkov is essentially a one trick pony on the feet, throwing his overhand right with reckless abandon. Krylov who has an extensive karate background will be too technical for Nedkov.
     
  4. DoUEvenLiftBro

    DoUEvenLiftBro Brown Belt

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    The last Nedkov fight at 205, he took the fight to Thiago Silva, wearing on him with clinching and constant pressure. Granted, he gassed worse, but it was because Thiago is a monster LHW who landed a lot of knees to the body in fending off Nedkov. Krylov hasn't shown the ground game or tenacity to deal with that type of style. If Nedkov fights like that, I feel like he's getting the takedowns or will beat up Krylov in the clinch.
     
  5. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Open
    [​IMG]
    Current
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Luca says he went 2-2 for break even on Sherdog radio post fight show, says he didn't lose anything.
     
  7. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Anyone lumping on the Gus/Moose double?
     
  8. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    The close odds fights for Saturday:

    Corassani vs. Sicilia
    Tumenov vs. Musoke
    Robertson vs. Aliev
    Ogle vs. Amirkhani
    Krylov vs. Nedkov
     
  9. betterthanjones

    betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    I'm kinda out of touch with a lot of fighters since I don't bet anymore, but is it just me or is Musoke's line (+110) screaming MUST BET?

    Seery's opener was pretty darn good, but as it stands now I think Beal is the right side.

    Any insight on the Finnish dude Amirkhani? Seems like a one trick pony sub dude who might flake the fuck out. Can't seem to wrap my head around betting Ogle as a favorite over like 80% of the roster though.

    I would throw a couple of pennies on Bader just cuz Davis thinks he the best grappler at LHW.

    I would love to see Rumble go rip a few more heads off in the division, but stylistically this should really be Gus to lose. 2 teamer with Mousasi at -120 sounds good.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2015
  10. Minnja

    Minnja Touch-Butt white belt Platinum Member

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    I think Robertson has been pretty underrated. I would love to throw some money on him but I am unfamiliar with Aliev. What are people's thoughts on that fight? Looks like from a quick fight finder search on Aliev that he is likely a striker.
     
  11. Turtleguard

    Turtleguard Brown Belt

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    A lot of people here are gonna be on Tumenov bra
     
  12. warriorscommando

    warriorscommando I will always protect you

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    I've got Johnson at +300 on one site. Stupid odds. Really stupid. Might just have to put some money down. Exactly the same for Bader.

    Diaz +400 (should be +300 I think).

    Hendo +375 (this I agree with)
     
  13. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Quick look - how is Erokhin -260 over Pesta?

    Pesta is 9 years younger, 5 inches taller and is not making his UFC debut.

    Erokhin must be really good.
     
  14. Ukram

    Ukram Silver Belt

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    Strange monday ufc event for me, down a bit due to spencer fight, glad did not play bendo since felt he got 2 rounds in the bag also....

    I prefer this saturday/Sundays time slot and event looks better for winning at least !
     
  15. Minnja

    Minnja Touch-Butt white belt Platinum Member

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    I'm not feeling too confident in the Sweden card. Probably will place a small amount on Rumble and Bader and parlay some heavy favorites. I don't feel like I know enough about many of the fighters.
     
  16. chill doggie

    chill doggie Orange Belt

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    UFN 59 results:

    8 Team Parlay

    Seattle Seahawks -330
    Conor "The Notorious" McGregor -1100
    Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +115
    Uriah "Prime Time" Hall -850
    Gleison Tibau -150
    Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin -155
    Patrick "The Hooligan" Holohan -300
    Sean "The Real OC" O'Connell -190

    bet: $44.00, won: 794

    6 Team Parlay

    Sean "The Real OC" O'Connell -225
    Patrick "The Hooligan" Holohan -310
    Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin -170
    Sean "Black Magic" Spencer -165
    Seattle Seahawks -330
    Gleison Tibau -150

    bet: 52.43, to win: 502.43 loss

    12 Team Parlay

    Joby Sanchez -190
    Sean "The Real OC" O'Connell -225
    Patrick "The Hooligan" Holohan -310
    Chris Wade -550
    Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin -170
    Gleison Tibau -150
    Sean "Black Magic" Spencer -165
    Uriah "Prime Time" Hall -850
    Conor "The Notorious" McGregor -1100
    Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +115
    Seattle Seahawks -330
    New England Patriots -280

    bet: $1, to win: $66.91 loss

    4 Team Parlay

    Sean "The Real OC" O'Connell -225
    Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin -200
    Patrick "The Hooligan" Holohan -350
    Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +120

    bet: $50, won: $253.43

    5 Team Parlay

    Sean "The Real OC" O'Connell -225
    Charles "Boston Strong" Rosa -145
    Patrick "The Hooligan" Holohan -350
    Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin -200
    Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +120

    bet: $50, won: $467.76

    5 Team Parlay (lost 4 days ago but including for a clear picture)

    Oklahoma City Thunder -2
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2015
  17. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Not starting a fight here, but I said I'd do this so I did it. I think it's important to show transparent results for any site charging money as well. Again, this is not a knock as the site is profitable, but seeing your return on investment is important and showing that is important.

    Below are the total results for mmabettingtips.com starting from the beginning on this link: http://mmabettingtips.com/category/mma-ufc-betting-results/ Keep in mind this is prior to the results from last nights event as they weren't posted yet. The good news is that I actually totaled a higher profit than what he listed. He is showing 99.79 units of profit, whereas I got 113.99 units of profit. I double checked my work, but it's possible I missed something. I'm confident the total units risked should be correct as it's easy to add. If you think anything is incorrect, let me know.

    TOTAL UNITS RISKED: 2150.5 UNITS
    TOTAL PROFIT: 113.99 UNITS
    ROI (RETURN ON INVESTMENT) = 5.3%


    Again, not trying to start a fight, but a paying site should disclose this type of information. When analyzing results, this is extremely important. I've said this criticizing other sites so I'm not picking on 12th man, I don't think it's worth it for anyone to pay for a betting service with an ROI below double digits.
     
  18. Tebowned

    Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    He's counting a 5unit free bet on pats+Seattle.
     
  19. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Robertson vs. Aliev

    http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/5/7/5691254/welcome-to-the-ufc-jake-lindsey-sultan-aliev

    Who is Sultan Aliev?

    A Russian and European Sambo Champion, Dagestan's Sultan Aliev is the latest Caucuses fighter to make his way to the UFC. Training out of Champion MMA, alongside "Frodo" Khasbulaev, Shamil Zavurov, and a host of other successful young prospects, the 29-year old Aliev will make his way to the UFC with a strong 13-1 record. The only blemish is a split decision loss to Doug Marshall, a fight which many felt he had clearly won. Since the loss, Aliev has won four straight outside of Bellator. And wins over Mikkel Parlo, Luiz Henrique, Hracho Darpinyan, Sergey Guzev, and Ruslan Khaskanov, add strong depth to a record largely built on the regional Eastern European scene.

    What you should expect:

    Let's get this out of the way, whether you felt he won or lost, Aliev's performance against Doug Marshall wasn't pretty. He obviously wanted nothing to do with the striking exchanges of that fight and did everything possible to pull Marshall to the mat and keep him there. The fact that Marshall won the split decision is something of a memorial to Aliev's inactivity. It is important to keep in mind however, that despite his 14 fight career, Aliev has only been active since 2011. He should be a ways away from his peak performances in the cage.

    More recently, his striking looks patient, somewhat plodding, but powerful and reasonably technical. Unusually for a fighter from his part of the world, Aliev throws a pretty consistent jab, and follows with a good mix of combinations. But he's not the same dynamo on the outside, usually standing flat footed at the edge of boxing range and looking for opportunities to work his way in. Obviously, once he's on the inside, Aliev has a great takedown game and a really powerful controlling top game. He's yet to show much in the way of submission offense, but he hasn't particularly needed it either.

     
  20. ivanilich

    ivanilich Green Belt

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    Soccer
    I'm placing 0.5u on Ghana and Argelia, both draw-no-bet. Ghana might struggle without A.Gyan, though.
     
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