Official UFC 195 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Joseph Budden]

Anyone making plays on afternoon nfl?

 

[EzFlyer]

Cheers dude. Back to back losing events suck but i went 12 or 13 without losing (any events i lost on in that spell i managed to break even there or there abouts through lb or hedging). So a couple of losses were due.

Yeah dont regret Larkin bet but that split and Noke split killed me.

Confident on next card tho. Grats you killed it great start to year.

Thx dude. And yea, I feel ya,losing splits sucks

 

[YoungScholar]

Other MMA specials on Betfair I also like

Jon Jones to fight in 2016 @ -455

CM Punk to fight in 2016 @ +162

Jon Jones is obviously coming back, only serious/repeated injuries could stop him from fighting in 2016. The line is not that far off his line against DC and he doesn't even have to win for it to cash, just fight.

Dana has said that CM Punk will fight in 2016 and he still looks to be training a lot (so probably over that shoulder injury). While he could get injured or even regret his decision to fight + money seems good to me. If he doesn't fight this year I doubt he ever will. Also, super speculative, but they actually don't mention the UFC - just "CM punk to fight in 2016" under MMA specials. So even if he for some reason goes to a local show to crush a can and get it out of his system, you could argue that it still should cash.

There's like a $40 limit on these so noone is getting rich from these but I think they're still worth it if you don't mind tying up a few bucks.

 

[iGnP]

NFL afternoon

Spoiler

*love* SF +3 and ML
Chargers +10
Bucs +10
Cardinals -6

Rams stayed on the west coast after the seattle game and became tourists, visiting many sights in CA. i doubt theyre ready for this game. no gurley either. SF plays tough at home

 

[Joseph Budden]

NFL afternoon

Spoiler

*love* SF +3 and ML
Chargers +10
Bucs +10
Cardinals -6

Rams stayed on the west coast after the seattle game and became tourists, visiting many sights in CA. i doubt theyre ready for this game. no gurley either. SF plays tough at home

Spoiler

tailed SF +3. Stabbed Chargers ML for shits and giggles action

EDIT parlayed the Bucs and Cards spreads full blown tailing you on everything

 

[Dirtey]

He doesn't have to. As long as he just gets his shot, you can bet Werdum or Cain @ -250 or whatever their line will be and you're in the money.

A lot of variables on the line here tho. Dana White have promised people title shots before and not delivered.

Overeem is still in the game, there are potential rematches.

There are also potential injuries, Cain beating Werdum and then getting injuried is far from a unrealistic scenario. And I would be very surprised if that prop covers the interim title.

What you got going for you is that he doesnt need to get the next title shot, as long as he gets one in 2016.

 

[iGnP]

Spoiler

tailed SF +3. Stabbed Chargers ML for shits and giggles action

EDIT parlayed the Bucs and Cards spreads full blown tailing you on everything

Spoiler

let's go i want a winning week to cap off the regular season

 

[YoungScholar]

A lot of variables on the line here tho. Dana White have promised people title shots before and not delivered.

Overeem is still in the game, there are potential rematches. There are injuries (I don't think that prop covers interim title.)

What you got going for you is that he doesnt need to get the next title shot, as long as he gets one in 2016.

Yea, I have thought of all that but still like the price even with those possible scenarios. I doubt Overeem gets it before Stipe even if Dana fucked Miesha over. A super close fight that requires a rematch seems unlikely in Cain/Werdum and even so there's plenty of time left for Stipe still to get his shot. The most likely spoiler I see is Cain winning and getting sidelined with an injury. Still can't pass up +1000.

 

[bruthead]

Well if you think Reem gets the shot he is 8/1 +8000 to hold the belt at any time during 2016.

Miocic +1000 10/1 is the clear value play, though.

EDIT: My bad 8/1 is +800. Got carried away with the zeroes.

 

[zomb]

nba

Spoiler

Hawks +5 livebet at HT 1.826
Heat ML 1.884

 

[Dirtey]

Well if you think Reem gets the shot he is 8/1 +8000 to hold the belt at any time during 2016.

Miocic +1000 10/1 is the clear value play, though.

I think I like Reem even more if so. If we don't get a rematch/injury scenario with Cain/Werdum I think it is pretty likely tbh.

So if we assume Miocic gets the next title shot in mid 2016 I think there will be a #1 contender fight between Overeem and Rothwell/Barnett winner around the same time. And I like Overeems chances against both of those guys. He is also in a great position contract wise and might try to use that as leverage to get a title shot. He is in no hurry to sign a new contract and should probably wait untill Cain/Werdum and Barnett/Rothwell have fought. If Barnett wins he is obviously first in line and could probably demand to wait for the title shot instead of fighting.

He could also get the title shot before Miocic, I am actually quite surprised that UFC seems to be going with Miocic first. Overeem should sell better, and is more likely to never get into a position were you can give him a title shot again. And to be fair, I don't see neither of these guys developing into a long time star. Might just go for the quick cash.

And +8000 is A LOT lol.

 

[KampSiver]

Ended up down like $500ish for the night.. If Condit won by unanimous decision, I would have been up like $1600, If Lawlor won by Unanimous decision I would have been down like $100. Can't complain to much cause I hit like $700 on Morono, and I thought for sure he lost plus the Condit-Lawlor fight was worth a loss..

Looking ahead.. I'm torn on the TJ- Cruz fight. Seriously how the hell do we cap this fight. How confident are we in Cruz's standup. I mean seriusly how much can we possibly know if he can hold his own with TJ in stand up. He dominated Mizugaki. but he took him down and pounded him out. Aside from that his last fight was Oct 2011 vs. Mighty Mouse!! lol..

I want to bet on Cruz. but part of me thinks Tj could just completely outstrike him due to how inactive he has been in fight experience but I also wouldn't be surprised if Cruz dominates TJ and looks like a Mightmouse-Dodson fight, with TJ not really being able to catch him very consistantly.

 

[mkess101]

That can be said for any fighter who relies on control to win fights.

Hardly. Some guys that rely on it don't noticeably tire the way Maia does after 2 rounds or so. And Maia relies on it (control) more heavily than almost any fighter in MMA history.

Add to that the fact that Condit DOES possess great cardio and often wears opponents down by being relentless even after 2, 3, 4 rounds and you get why this is such an extreme example of why 3 rds vs 5 rds matters so much if this fight happens. Way more than just "anyone who relies on control to win fights".

 

[Oblivian]

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/official-ufc-fight-night-81-betting-thread-post-your-bets.3143103/

 

[RyuDave]

Don't sweat it man

It's obviously not a total lock that Stipe gets his shot within this calender year. Cain could get that strap and then get injured and be out until 2017 or some other scenarios, but the line is more than good enough to make up for these in my opinion.

Yes I agree, I'll take a look at it for sure.. Been betting for years for fun mainly parlays but had a good December so thought might do it a little more serious this year, I don't bet nowhere near as much as you guys but I've started a bankrol for this year and see where I can get.. Although last night hammered me lol

 

[RyuDave]

Other MMA specials on Betfair I also like

Jon Jones to fight in 2016 @ -455

CM Punk to fight in 2016 @ +162

Jon Jones is obviously coming back, only serious/repeated injuries could stop him from fighting in 2016. The line is not that far off his line against DC and he doesn't even have to win for it to cash, just fight.

Dana has said that CM Punk will fight in 2016 and he still looks to be training a lot (so probably over that shoulder injury). While he could get injured or even regret his decision to fight + money seems good to me. If he doesn't fight this year I doubt he ever will. Also, super speculative, but they actually don't mention the UFC - just "CM punk to fight in 2016" under MMA specials. So even if he for some reason goes to a local show to crush a can and get it out of his system, you could argue that it still should cash.

There's like a $40 limit on these so noone is getting rich from these but I think they're still worth it if you don't mind tying up a few bucks.

That jones line seems like a good bet!

 

[LayonJesus]

Hardly. Some guys that rely on it don't noticeably tire the way Maia does after 2 rounds or so. And Maia relies on it (control) more heavily than almost any fighter in MMA history.

Add to that the fact that Condit DOES possess great cardio and often wears opponents down by being relentless even after 2, 3, 4 rounds and you get why this is such an extreme example of why 3 rds vs 5 rds matters so much if this fight happens. Way more than just "anyone who relies on control to win fights".

It may not equal as big of a difference in the line but a fighter who relies on control and doesnt finish is always going to go down in odds 3rds vs 5rds, especially against a fighter who has finishing ability.

 

[mkess101]

It may not equal as big of a difference in the line but a fighter who relies on control and doesnt finish is always going to go down in odds as a fight goes longer, especially against a fighter who has finishing ability.

Yeah I agree. My point was simply that this is arguably the most extreme example I can remember seeing for a fight that could very likely happen.