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In 1961 an astronomer and astrophysicist named Frank Drake came up with the Drake equation which was a mathematical formula to try an ascertain the number of technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy, the Milky Way.
The Drake equation is still used today to establish a probability framework for the number of technologically advanced civilizations but thanks to Adam Frank of the University of Rochester and his friend Woodruff Sullivan of the University of Washington, they have managed to eliminate or refine three of the terms within the Drake Equation to get a more reliable estimate.
What you see below in yellow is the Drake Equation, and the lower blue are the refinements to the equation.
Recent advances in technology and research have begun to narrow the Drake Equations constraints so that we can plug in better estimates. The Kepler telescope in orbit around Earth, for example, has helped us to determine that about one-fifth of stars have planets orbiting in the habitable zone.
The synopsis of their work is as follows.
They go on to say that in the past it would be a pessimistic view to place the probability of an advanced civilization at 1 in a trillion but now we know that even at one in a trillion, there would have been around 10,000,000,000, that's right, 10 Billion technologically advanced civilizations. In fact, so many that a person would not even be able to view a list of the names of these races in a lifetime. A vast sea of advanced races so numerous it is almost beyond imagination.
So then, are we seeing some of these advanced races in our atmosphere? Is it possible that many of the more credible UFO sightings by astronauts, airline pilots, police officers and others are legit? If not then why not?
A possible explanation is the Firmi Paradox. The basic idea is that there are a huge number of technologically advanced races and yet we see very little evidence of this. Nick Bostrom of Oxford gives a great explanation of the Firmi Paradox if you would like to watch it. The paradox seems to indicate that even if we were just to discover a single celled organism on a moon around Jupiter, it would be a very bad thing because it might indicate life is very common which would in turn indicate that most civilizations go extinct before they become "spacefaring" species. That means us, it means that there is a good chance we never escape Earth and we in fact go extinct.
On the other hand, not finding any life, which we haven't, would seem to indicate that life is exceptionally rare and the human race may have already cleared the hurdle that causes most races to go extinct.
Here is Bostrom's explanation.
In this modern age of technological advancement, these are the questions we must wrestle with. We can no longer roll our eyes and wave off any discussion of UFO's and extraterrestrial life. If there are billions of technologically advanced races then why do we not see them? Or do we see them and we are simply not yet mature enough to accept the reality of it and interact with them?
The Drake equation is still used today to establish a probability framework for the number of technologically advanced civilizations but thanks to Adam Frank of the University of Rochester and his friend Woodruff Sullivan of the University of Washington, they have managed to eliminate or refine three of the terms within the Drake Equation to get a more reliable estimate.
What you see below in yellow is the Drake Equation, and the lower blue are the refinements to the equation.
Recent advances in technology and research have begun to narrow the Drake Equations constraints so that we can plug in better estimates. The Kepler telescope in orbit around Earth, for example, has helped us to determine that about one-fifth of stars have planets orbiting in the habitable zone.
The synopsis of their work is as follows.
They go on to say that in the past it would be a pessimistic view to place the probability of an advanced civilization at 1 in a trillion but now we know that even at one in a trillion, there would have been around 10,000,000,000, that's right, 10 Billion technologically advanced civilizations. In fact, so many that a person would not even be able to view a list of the names of these races in a lifetime. A vast sea of advanced races so numerous it is almost beyond imagination.
So then, are we seeing some of these advanced races in our atmosphere? Is it possible that many of the more credible UFO sightings by astronauts, airline pilots, police officers and others are legit? If not then why not?
A possible explanation is the Firmi Paradox. The basic idea is that there are a huge number of technologically advanced races and yet we see very little evidence of this. Nick Bostrom of Oxford gives a great explanation of the Firmi Paradox if you would like to watch it. The paradox seems to indicate that even if we were just to discover a single celled organism on a moon around Jupiter, it would be a very bad thing because it might indicate life is very common which would in turn indicate that most civilizations go extinct before they become "spacefaring" species. That means us, it means that there is a good chance we never escape Earth and we in fact go extinct.
On the other hand, not finding any life, which we haven't, would seem to indicate that life is exceptionally rare and the human race may have already cleared the hurdle that causes most races to go extinct.
Here is Bostrom's explanation.
In this modern age of technological advancement, these are the questions we must wrestle with. We can no longer roll our eyes and wave off any discussion of UFO's and extraterrestrial life. If there are billions of technologically advanced races then why do we not see them? Or do we see them and we are simply not yet mature enough to accept the reality of it and interact with them?
